Napoleon doesn't invade Spain

[Faeelin]

Here's a question. What effect would a pro-Napoleon Spain have on Britain's economy?

OTL, Spain and Britain became allies after Napoleon installed Joseph; and the markets of Latin America opened to Britain. they were surprisingly important, and the spanish mess kept Bonaparte from garrisoning troops as extensively as he may have wished along the continent's coast.

So, it's 1807; america's embargo act is hurting Britain; its latest attack on Latin America has failed, and while smuggling is rife, it isn't as big as the free trade with the Spanish new world empire OTL.

Does Britain negotiate a peace in exchange for a renewal of trade?

 

[Tocomocho]

Because it either sells it or loses it to Britain or America?

Why do you think that a Spanish Empire intact, with the arks full of coin and whithout any conflict in Europe would lost an inch of land to Britain or America, countries that aren't even at war with Spain at that moment?

 

[Faeelin]

Why do you think that a Spanish Empire intact, with the arks full of coin and whithout any conflict in Europe would lost an inch of land to Britain or America, countries that aren't even at war with Spain at that moment?

Because Britain is at war with Spain?

 

[Rockingham]

I never understood this. How does control of Gibraltar give you control of the Mediterranean?

I think you see changes way before Moscow, though. Without the fate of Spain before it, Austria may not launch another war in 1808 (I think). Russia might still be a bit provocative, but an invasion may not be necessary, and Britain, without its ability to influence things on the continent, may be forced to come to terms.

Gibraltar doesn't give you control of the Med in itself, it just puts the state that holds it in a stronger position to control the said Mediterranean, as it is an excellent naval, defensive and offensive base, and a valuable trading port. Much like the Suez, Constantinople and Singapore.

Here's a question. What effect would a pro-Napoleon Spain have on Britain's economy?

OTL, Spain and Britain became allies after Napoleon installed Joseph; and the markets of Latin America opened to Britain. they were surprisingly important, and the spanish mess kept Bonaparte from garrisoning troops as extensively as he may have wished along the continent's coast.

So, it's 1807; america's embargo act is hurting Britain; its latest attack on Latin America has failed, and while smuggling is rife, it isn't as big as the free trade with the Spanish new world empire OTL.

Does Britain negotiate a peace in exchange for a renewal of trade?

The worst that can happen is a British success in Latin America, which is a vast improvemnt from OTL. I doubt that peace will reign in the East though, Austria/Russia/Prussia will go to war with France sooner or later. The sooner the better for Napoleon.

 

[DuQuense]

Originally Posted by DuQuense View Post
With Spain remaining a French Ally, I see another attemp on Argentina, and maybe one on Cuba. Plus support for the Rebels in Mexico.

What rebels?

Well in 1808 it would be Viceroy Jose de Iturrigaray’s and his intent to form a junta with Creole factions, a move that he thought might make him King of an independent Mexican kingdom. Along with the Literary Club of Queretaro which formed for intellectual discussion, but in practice became a planning organization for revolution. Independence- and reform-oriented thinkers.

If 1810 by the time Britian begins the support, It would be Ignacio Allende, & Father Hidalgo.

 

[Tocomocho]

Well in 1808 it would be Viceroy Jose de Iturrigaray’s and his intent to form a junta with Creole factions, a move that he thought might make him King of an independent Mexican kingdom. Along with the Literary Club of Queretaro which formed for intellectual discussion, but in practice became a planning organization for revolution. Independence- and reform-oriented thinkers.

If 1810 by the time Britian begins the support, It would be Ignacio Allende, & Father Hidalgo.

First, Iturrigaray started his project after hearing news of the Aranjuez Mutiny, which was caused by the French silent invasion of Spain. Plus, he had not independence as a goal, just increasing of autonomy. Nothing really different from the objetives of the Aranjuez Mutiny itself.

Second, Hidalgo revolted in 1810 against the government of Joseph I and one of his mottos was "¡Viva Fernando VII!"...

No French invasion of Spain > No Aranjuez Mutiny > No rebellion of any sort in Latin America

Because Britain is at war with Spain?

They made peace in 1807, right? In any case, if Britain declares war on Spain later, Spain has the resources to put a fight and defend her possessions in the New World. Not a case remotely similar to France's one (and specially a France without Haiti).

 

[Faeelin]

They made peace in 1807, right? In any case, if Britain declares war on Spain later, Spain has the resources to put a fight and defend her possessions in the New World. Not a case remotely similar to France's one (and specially a France without Haiti).

They made peace because Napoleon invaded Spain and overthrew the Bourbon dynasty. Which he doesn't, here.

Likewise, I don't see how British attacks on Spain's Latin American colonies, which, were, ah, less than successful OTL is a benefit for Britain; or how the lack of markets in Latin America helps Britain. Or how not fighting Napoleon's army, which is what that entails, benefits Britain.

I also don't think we should assume that Austria/Prussia/Russia will go to war with napoleon ASAP. Austria did so in 1808 because it was terrified of suffering the same fate as Spain; Russia remained loyal to Napoleon and fought Austria.