Napoleon doesn't invade Russia

Don Quijote

Banned
What if Tsar Alexander either joined the Continental System, or Napoleon didn't oppose Russo-British trade as long as Russia stayed neutral? Where does Napoleon turn to invade now, if anywhere?
 
What if Tsar Alexander either joined the Continental System, or Napoleon didn't oppose Russo-British trade as long as Russia stayed neutral? Where does Napoleon turn to invade now, if anywhere?

Tsar Alexander did join the continental system. The point is that he left the continental system and that France and Russia went on a collision course.

So if Napoleon had not gone against Russia, it is Russia that would have gone against France. Alexander was working on plans for a military attack, for some strategy that was quite similar to what Russia did in 1813 when Napoleon was defeated in Russia and then rolled back.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Tsar Alexander did join the continental system. The point is that he left the continental system and that France and Russia went on a collision course.

So if Napoleon had not gone against Russia, it is Russia that would have gone against France. Alexander was working on plans for a military attack, for some strategy that was quite similar to what Russia did in 1813 when Napoleon was defeated in Russia and then rolled back.

The Russian court and population was indeed getting more and more anti-French and war was pretty much unavoidable.

I can see Napoleon deciding the Russian refusal to effectively join the Continental Blockade is best to be dealt with after crushing the last British positions on the mainland and marches to Lissabon instead of Moscow. Before he is able to complete his victory against Wellington however the Russians invade Eastern Europe. Now is when things get very interesting. What do the Prussians and, more importantly, the Austrians do? Even if they both join forces with Alexander (which isn't sure) Napoleon is in a vastly better position as the British won't be controlling as much of Iberia and even more so because his Grand Armee is still reasonably intact. Given the amount of damage Napoleon could do against the Coaltion when he had just lost one of Europes finest armies ever assembled... What is more so, he could start appealing to the national feelings of the Polish now that he doesn't have to keep the Russians on friendly terms.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
Napoleon is in a vastly better position as the British won't be controlling as much of Iberia

Knowing the British, as soon as Napoleon's back is turned they'll invade again, either reinvading Iberia or somewhere else in the Napoleonic Empire.

However I'm not sure that war with Russia was inevitable. I can see Napoleon compensating Russia for the loss of Poland by allowing them to take part of Sweden or the Balkans. I don't know if this is ASB but there might even be a second Egyptian campaign; France attacking the Ottamans from the south and Russia attacking from the north.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Knowing the British, as soon as Napoleon's back is turned they'll invade again, either reinvading Iberia or somewhere else in the Napoleonic Empire.

However I'm not sure that war with Russia was inevitable. I can see Napoleon compensating Russia for the loss of Poland by allowing them to take part of Sweden or the Balkans. I don't know if this is ASB but there might even be a second Egyptian campaign; France attacking the Ottamans from the south and Russia attacking from the north.

If I remember reading Adam Zamoyski right the foul mood in Russia was due to more than just compensation.

Regarding the British, there is a limit to what every nation can endure. At some point the British public will have enough.
 
He goes to Spain to do what his marshals had failed to do: defeat Wellington.

Easier said than done, Wellington had a fairly small army, and would not have hesitated to withdraw by sea and come back a few months later. And the poor logistics of Spain would wear down the French army without it getting to fight.

Thus Napoleon would find himself in Spain with a large portion of his best troops, whilst Russia starts making mischief and the Prussians and Austrians rebuild and plot.

Napoleon may face Wellington being landed somewhere new, and likely finds that the more he delays the stronger Russia gets. Meanwhile the French treasury will face a shortfall of new loot from its conquests, always a concern for conquest empires.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
If I remember reading Adam Zamoyski right the foul mood in Russia was due to more than just compensation.

Regarding the British, there is a limit to what every nation can endure. At some point the British public will have enough.

The British had been fighting France on and off since about 1688, and they were used to winning, even if it took a while.
 
The British had been fighting France on and off since about 1688, and they were used to winning, even if it took a while.

The British (or rather, the English) had been fighting the French much earlier than that -since at least the time of the Hundred Years' War.
 
I think it is likely that Napoleon would go to Spain if he was not preoccupied with his invasion of Russia. But that would not be a foregone conclusion, as the situation would be quite dangerous in central Europe with a hostile Russia, and very uncertain allies in Prussia and Austria.

If Napoleon did return to Spain, the British might very well change tactics to avoid fighting what would be a larger army than they faced IOTL. So they may stay mostly contained with Portugal, or attempt descents/landings away from the main concentrations of French troops.

The objective of the Spanish expedition would largely determine the course of the campaign. Napoleon could attempt a knock-out blow by invading Portugal for a third time. Or he could attempt to more thoroughly conquer Spain before moving on. A good starting point for the later would be to reinforce the siege fo Cadiz.
 
Napolen's Credibility would be damaged of he allowed Alexander to leave the Continental System just like that
It would lead to Prussia and Austria doing to the same and breaking it apart
 
Napolen's Credibility would be damaged of he allowed Alexander to leave the Continental System just like that
It would lead to Prussia and Austria doing to the same and breaking it apart

Perhaps, but Vienna and Berlin were a much shorter march for Napoleon's army. And both rulers had recent experience with Napoleon occupying their capitols. Britain also did not have a great deal of credibility at this point propping up their continental allies, so the King and the Emperor would be taking a leap of faith mobilizing their troops against France.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
The British (or rather, the English) had been fighting the French much earlier than that -since at least the time of the Hundred Years' War.

I do know that - but the period 1689-1815 is sometimes called the Second Hundred Years War. It includes King William's War, the War of the Spanish Succession, the Seven Year's War, the American War of Independence and the Napoleonic Wars - quite a list!
 
I do know that - but the period 1689-1815 is sometimes called the Second Hundred Years War. It includes King William's War, the War of the Spanish Succession, the Seven Year's War, the American War of Independence and the Napoleonic Wars - quite a list!

Also the War of the Austrian Succession.
 
Knowing the British, as soon as Napoleon's back is turned they'll invade again, either reinvading Iberia or somewhere else in the Napoleonic Empire.

However I'm not sure that war with Russia was inevitable. I can see Napoleon compensating Russia for the loss of Poland by allowing them to take part of Sweden or the Balkans. I don't know if this is ASB but there might even be a second Egyptian campaign; France attacking the Ottamans from the south and Russia attacking from the north.

Russia did not lose any part of Poland it had taken by 1795; in fact, in 1807 it even took a bite out of formerly Prussia Poland. And France agreed that Russia could take Finland in 1809. Plus, Russia and the Ottoman Empire were at war from 1806 until 1812; with less than stellar result for Russia.
 
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