Napoleon doesn't invade Russia...

(I did a search for this topic and couldn't find any matches. If it's been done already, sorry)
The history books usually call Napoleon's invasion of Russia his biggest mistake; only 30,000 men out of half a million survived. So, what if he doesn't go into Russia? He still has to solve the problem that Russia has defied him by leaving the Continental System, and still has the running fight in the Penninsula to deal with. OTOH, Napoleon does have that huge army intact, so it doesn't seem likely that any of his foes are going to be able to take him down anytime soon....
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
If Napoleon had taken a hundred thousand men and personally gone off to face Wellington in the Peninsula, I expect that the French would have emerged victorious. A decisive defeat in Spain would likely have brought down the British government, it being replaced by one more amenable to peace.
 
I'd imagine that he punishes Russia via a blockade, forcing the Ottomans to close the Bosphorus to Russian ships in the Black Sea, drags Denmark back into the war and uses it as a base to seal off the Baltic as well. From there, it might be enough to punish the Russians.

WIth those half-million men he now has, take 200,000 and drive them into the Peninsula with Napoleon at the head, and use the 300,000 or so remaining men, maybe 20-30,000 in Denmark and the rest as a credible force against the (neutral?) Ottomans to ensure their cooperation - with the force either poised to invade if they have already backed out of the war by this point...or to help bolster the Turks, and perhaps launch a foolish overland campaign down into Egypt to retake that...or perhaps into India via Persia - though given Afghanistan being known as the Graveyard of Empires, I'd imagine he'll not quite make it, and those that do won't be quite the credible force once they get to the other side.
 
He does have to keep some sort of force-in-being ready against the Russians: defence takes less than offence, of course (and the Russians were outnumbered to start with), but they can't be relief on to sit on their hands whether or not it would be the sensible thing, not with a man like Bagration around.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Remember that of the half million troops Napoleon took into Russia, only about two hundred thousand were reliable troops, with perhaps fifty thousand more being reliable Poles, Germans, or Italians. The rest were mostly unenthusiastic or downright unwilling levies that, IOTL, melted away rapidly in Russia. Whatever Napoleon would have done ITTL, he wouldn't really have been able to count on the half million troops with which he invaded Russia.
 
It depends on why he doesn't invade Russia, as IOTL he invaded it on a bad premise and handled the campaign the worst out of all of his campaigns. If he realizes that Alexander seriously himself intends not to hold to his attempt at both strangling England and creating French economic hegemony over Europe, there will still be a war though Napoleon is even less likely to understand how to defeat Russia in this case than he was in the other.
 

Cook

Banned
It’s not as though the Russians were the only ones ignoring the Continental System, even Josephine was buying English goods.
 
If Napoleon had taken a hundred thousand men and personally gone off to face Wellington in the Peninsula, I expect that the French would have emerged victorious. A decisive defeat in Spain would likely have brought down the British government, it being replaced by one more amenable to peace.

No, they wouldn't. it will take more than Napoleon's ego to break through the lines of Torres Vedras and solve the logistic problems that always attended French armies in Spain - "Large armies starve, and small armies get beat" (Wellington), and all that - and you're giving Napoleon a very large army. It also depends on when the campaign starts - by April 1812 both Ciudad Rodrigo and Badajoz had fallen to the British (the loss of Ciudad Rodrigo was especially important as the main French siege train in Spain was captured there), which means that Napoleon will have to conduct several lengthy and difficult sieges even before he can seriously enter Portugal. Which means in turn that it will be getting late in the year before he can even hope to threaten Torres Vedras. Good luck with that.
 
Napoleon is too much of an egomaniac- and this is coming from a fan of his- to let the Russians slight him in way without going to war. He's going to do something foolish, no matter to the cost in human lives to stroke his pride.
 
I'd imagine that he punishes Russia via a blockade, forcing the Ottomans to close the Bosphorus to Russian ships in the Black Sea, drags Denmark back into the war and uses it as a base to seal off the Baltic as well. From there, it might be enough to punish the Russians.

WIth those half-million men he now has, take 200,000 and drive them into the Peninsula with Napoleon at the head, and use the 300,000 or so remaining men, maybe 20-30,000 in Denmark and the rest as a credible force against the (neutral?) Ottomans to ensure their cooperation - with the force either poised to invade if they have already backed out of the war by this point...or to help bolster the Turks, and perhaps launch a foolish overland campaign down into Egypt to retake that...or perhaps into India via Persia - though given Afghanistan being known as the Graveyard of Empires, I'd imagine he'll not quite make it, and those that do won't be quite the credible force once they get to the other side.

Europeans at the time hardly noticed Afghanistan at all. The Graveyard of Empires? Not a Napoleon's problem, AFAIK.
The Ottomans were already at war with Russia (so was Persia, for that matter) so no problem at all down there. The problem with blockading Russia, IMHO is that at this point THEY would invade. With Prussia and probably Austria rushing in support. I know, it would be easier for Napoleon this way, but Iberia would still be a bleeding sore.
 
Remember that of the half million troops Napoleon took into Russia, only about two hundred thousand were reliable troops, with perhaps fifty thousand more being reliable Poles, Germans, or Italians. The rest were mostly unenthusiastic or downright unwilling levies that, IOTL, melted away rapidly in Russia. Whatever Napoleon would have done ITTL, he wouldn't really have been able to count on the half million troops with which he invaded Russia.

The Poles atleast loved Napoleon, he liberated them and gave them their own nation for the first time. Almost all Polish troops where probably just as supportive as the French core.
 
Europeans at the time hardly noticed Afghanistan at all. The Graveyard of Empires? Not a Napoleon's problem, AFAIK.
The Ottomans were already at war with Russia (so was Persia, for that matter) so no problem at all down there. The problem with blockading Russia, IMHO is that at this point THEY would invade. With Prussia and probably Austria rushing in support. I know, it would be easier for Napoleon this way, but Iberia would still be a bleeding sore.

This could actually be to Napoleon's advantage, as he can probably beat the Russians if they take the battle to him; he won't have to worry about Russian winters or supply lines. Of course that still leaves the problem of Iberia. But still, a swift victory over Russia should give him the chance to focus on that front.
 
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