Napoleon does not Turn on Spain

What if Napoleon had decided Spain was a valuable distraction for Britain and had decided not to invade? To keep their relationship cordial, I believe the miserable Battle of Trafalgar would have to be butterflied away. Would Latin America still be ruled by Spain? Would Coalition forces have to march on Spain as well as France or would Spain eventually sue for peace? I doubt they'd sue for peace after finally defeating their archnemesis Portugal.
 
IMO, invading Portugal was part of the invasion of Spain. While Portugal was being a minor pain in the neck for France, they were of no real import. So, my theory is that Nap, quite brilliantly, forced Spain to invade Portugal with the convenient coincidence of putting French forces inside Spain, where they quickly turned and almost completely conquered Spain. the less brilliant part is that Spanish guerilla forces with some leftovers from the regular army then proceeded to make life miserable for France.

That said, part of the reasoning for invading Spain was that they were a less than enthusiastic ally who had been a hair away from being an enemy a couple years earlier (they had started a general call up of troops to invade France, but backed down when Prussia got their butts handed to them in spectacular and quick fashion). If Nap doesn't invade, no invasion of Portugal, Britain continues to harass Spain, the colonies remain loyal for a while longer (they only started to break free when there was no legitimate throne in Spain), and sooner or later Spain decides to turn on France.
 
plus, it's an iffy proposition that Austria goes up against France in 1809. they were divided as to whether to demobilize or engage in war (mobilized, but not in war, was not an option). When Spain showed some spunk and it was obvious France was going to be bogged down in Spain/Portugal, Austria went with the war option.
 
IMO, invading Portugal was part of the invasion of Spain. While Portugal was being a minor pain in the neck for France, they were of no real import. So, my theory is that Nap, quite brilliantly, forced Spain to invade Portugal with the convenient coincidence of putting French forces inside Spain, where they quickly turned and almost completely conquered Spain.

This theory is not born out by any historical sources, because the actual reason for Napoleon's invasion was to pressure Britain's remaining ally on the continent (and implement the continental system).
 
yes, that is the usual reason given for Portugal. It's not wrong, but....

I find it incredible that Napoleon dreamed up the Portugal invasion and then ad hoc decided to take Spain while he was at it.

I've read in various places that the French were taking detailed notes while they crossed Spain to get to Portugal. they were planning all along to make Spain part 2 of the Portuguese invasion. The invasion began with French troops inside Spain allegedly on their way to/from Portugal. so, yes, it is born out by historical sources.

That's my point. the Portuguese invasion was simply the preliminary phase of the Spanish invasion. OTL, you cannot separate the two. IMO, they were one and the same as planned, and as executed. People like to treat them as two entirely different entities,that France woke up on the way to Portugal and then eh, what the heck, let's take this country, too.

This isn't to say that France wouldn't have taken out Portugal while keeping Spain as an ally. They were a minor thorn in France's side, but also were easy to remove. I merely posit that Portugal was not a separate action from Spain, OTL.
 
yes, that is the usual reason given for Portugal. It's not wrong, but....

I find it incredible that Napoleon dreamed up the Portugal invasion and then ad hoc decided to take Spain while he was at it.

I've read in various places that the French were taking detailed notes while they crossed Spain to get to Portugal. they were planning all along to make Spain part 2 of the Portuguese invasion. The invasion began with French troops inside Spain allegedly on their way to/from Portugal. so, yes, it is born out by historical sources.

That's my point. the Portuguese invasion was simply the preliminary phase of the Spanish invasion. OTL, you cannot separate the two. IMO, they were one and the same as planned, and as executed. People like to treat them as two entirely different entities,that France woke up on the way to Portugal and then eh, what the heck, let's take this country, too.

This isn't to say that France wouldn't have taken out Portugal while keeping Spain as an ally. They were a minor thorn in France's side, but also were easy to remove. I merely posit that Portugal was not a separate action from Spain, OTL.

Except that Napoleon was simply taking advantage of the chaos born from the Spanish Royal Family at the time and them both appealing to him to settle the matter. Avoid that, and you easily avoid France trying to occupy Spain, for a while at least.
 
Except that Napoleon was simply taking advantage of the chaos born from the Spanish Royal Family at the time and them both appealing to him to settle the matter. Avoid that, and you easily avoid France trying to occupy Spain, for a while at least.

One of his greatest mistakes was trying to put his brother, who has ZERO connection to Spain, on the Spanish throne. He thought since he could install his siblings (including Joseph already in Naples) with relative ease the Spanish would accept it. He should have at least have looked for a descendant of Ferdinand and Isabel to give the crowning historical legitimacy and not a Frenchman (and one of his own family) who was certainly seen as a compliant French puppet only looking out for French interests.
 
DAv,
somewhat true.
timeline: Nov/Dec 1807 - joint Spanish/French invasion of Portugal.
Feb 1808 - France turns on Spain (Barcelona falls when French forces trick Spanish into letting in 'wounded' French troops)
March 1808 - Charles IV abdicates
April-Charles rethinks his abdication. both Charles and Ferdinand stupidly visit Nap for resolution and give up the crown which Nap then hands to neither, instead giving it to his brother. I don't quite get this whole affair. Your country is at arms with France, so you let the French emperor mediate the crown? Granted, they probably felt that was the only option as it seemed like France was going to be in charge of Spain, so might as well beg to be kept on the throne as his lackey. Still, this has to be a low point for 2 idiot kings and Spain.

Nap was indeed taking advantage of a screwed up Spain, but he was also actively screwing up the situation for Spain, having agents in Spain who were fomenting discontent between father and son and between country and throne.

there isn't a doubt in my mind that Nap started the Portuguese invasion with the firm intent of quickly turning on Spain. the back up plan was to call off the Spanish invasion if it didn't look good (I'm thinking the only thing to cause an abort would be some sort of show of competency on the part of spanish forces. they didn't show much competence, so it looked like easy pickings, and probably would have been if the peasants hadn't shown resiliency. the regular forces, majority, and elite showed no backbone at all )
 
jb3,
the elites went along with Joseph. it was the common folk who said hell no.
it seems like a bad idea in hindsight, but Nap had successfully put Joseph on the crown of Italy, Louis on the the crown of Holland, and Jerome on the crown of westphalia.
 
Would Latin America still be ruled by Spain?
I'm not sure. Even if Spain isn't invaded during the Napoleonic Wars and the colonies hold out loyal all through the European war, Spain was likely to suffer a civil war between liberals and conservatives - the OTL two Carlist wars.
If those aren't butterflied away, the civil war can easily encompass the American portion of the Spanish Empire and, as violence and hatred gets exacerbated through years of war, the American liberals will be a stone throw away from saying "Fuck this, we're going for independence"
 
Napoleon's biggest mistake, perhaps ever, was deposing the Spanish King and installing his brother.

It turned Spain from a weak and unreliable ally into a bleeding ulcer.

=======
As for Spanish colonies, if Spain STAYS an ally of Napoleon/France, then the colonies have even less connexion with the homeland, and are more likely to revolt.

Britain is likely to either encourage said revolts, or if a colony stays loyalist, take it over.

Maybe Mexico goes independent a decade earlier.
 
Top