Napoleon does NOT come back

samcster94

Banned
What if Napoleon accepted the Treaty of Elba and died on Elba?? In this ATL, Waterloo and his reemergence never happens. Louis XVIII is king as OTL but is not interrupted.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The allied powers were already planning on getting rid of Napoleon, one way or the other. Indeed, reports to this effect were a major factor in prompting Napoleon to return to France.
 
Polish-Saxon crisis leads to a war between Prussia and Russia (With Dutch support) vs Britain, Austria and France. Prussia gets all of Saxony while Russia gets all of Poland.
 
To be fair it was not just Napoléon breaking the treaty, Louis XVIII also refused to pay him the income he was supposed to receive on Elba, so he could barely afford to stay there.

Well, we would not have the amazing story of his coming back and giving the legendary quote ("Soldiers, recognize your Emperor! If there is one who wants to fire on me, here I am!") so he would be slightly less of a legend, and possibly Bonapartism is weaker.

France gets a little more territory (1792 borders) and population (and is spared some losses due to no 1815 war and resulting white terror), and doesn't have to pay 700 million francs in reparations. Perhaps that's just enough to make the restauration more successful?
 
To be fair it was not just Napoléon breaking the treaty, Louis XVIII also refused to pay him the income he was supposed to receive on Elba, so he could barely afford to stay there.

Well, we would not have the amazing story of his coming back and giving the legendary quote ("Soldiers, recognize your Emperor! If there is one who wants to fire on me, here I am!") so he would be slightly less of a legend, and possibly Bonapartism is weaker.

France gets a little more territory (1792 borders) and population (and is spared some losses due to no 1815 war and resulting white terror), and doesn't have to pay 700 million francs in reparations. Perhaps that's just enough to make the restauration more successful?

Ironically, though, it DOES mean we come out of 1815 with a Bonapartist Kingdom still kicking around (The Kingdom of Naples) rather than re-uniting under a Borboun Two Sicilies. This could give the South more power/legitimacy in the coming era of Italian Nationalism, especially if Napoleon decides to be a dynamic ruler in Elba and builds connections between the different regions of Italy as an alternate pole to Hapsburg hegemony.

Personally, I never see the Restoration as being able to win the hearts and minds of the majority of the French population. But this Louis, at least, will probably be able to avoid revolution until a new generation of young Frenchmen come to their own.
 
Ironically, though, it DOES mean we come out of 1815 with a Bonapartist Kingdom still kicking around (The Kingdom of Naples) rather than re-uniting under a Borboun Two Sicilies. This could give the South more power/legitimacy in the coming era of Italian Nationalism, especially if Napoleon decides to be a dynamic ruler in Elba and builds connections between the different regions of Italy as an alternate pole to Hapsburg hegemony.

Personally, I never see the Restoration as being able to win the hearts and minds of the majority of the French population. But this Louis, at least, will probably be able to avoid revolution until a new generation of young Frenchmen come to their own.

Oh, that would be very cool to see the Kingdom of Naples leading up to the wave of Italian Nationalism. (He was only 51 when he died so I can see him living much longer.)

Pretty much. The Bourbon acted like the Revolution never happen, and pissed off most of France. The original Revolution and Napoleon killed the hopes of a long term Bourbon Restoration. The ALT July Revolution would be something to see.
 
Ironically, though, it DOES mean we come out of 1815 with a Bonapartist Kingdom still kicking around (The Kingdom of Naples) rather than re-uniting under a Borboun Two Sicilies. This could give the South more power/legitimacy in the coming era of Italian Nationalism, especially if Napoleon decides to be a dynamic ruler in Elba and builds connections between the different regions of Italy as an alternate pole to Hapsburg hegemony.

Personally, I never see the Restoration as being able to win the hearts and minds of the majority of the French population. But this Louis, at least, will probably be able to avoid revolution until a new generation of young Frenchmen come to their own.

Oh, that would be very cool to see the Kingdom of Naples leading up to the wave of Italian Nationalism. (He was only 51 when he died so I can see him living much longer.)

Pretty much. The Bourbon acted like the Revolution never happen, and pissed off most of France. The original Revolution and Napoleon killed the hopes of a long term Bourbon Restoration. The ALT July Revolution would be something to see.


TBH Murat would have to go pretty hard into Nationalism, if he wanted to keep his position.
 

samcster94

Banned
To be fair it was not just Napoléon breaking the treaty, Louis XVIII also refused to pay him the income he was supposed to receive on Elba, so he could barely afford to stay there.

Well, we would not have the amazing story of his coming back and giving the legendary quote ("Soldiers, recognize your Emperor! If there is one who wants to fire on me, here I am!") so he would be slightly less of a legend, and possibly Bonapartism is weaker.

France gets a little more territory (1792 borders) and population (and is spared some losses due to no 1815 war and resulting white terror), and doesn't have to pay 700 million francs in reparations. Perhaps that's just enough to make the restauration more successful?
Even if this works, the Restoration probably still fails long term, likely when his brother is on on the throne as in OTL. The French Charter of 1814 created a VERY small electorate(basically only rich men who were alive before the Revolution), and was still too close to an absolute monarchy for most people.A whole generation of people were born after 1789 and had very different ideas on governing. Napoleon would probably have a more negative image as a result, but I am not clear if Bonapartism can be reborn later in this alternate 19th century.
 
Even if this works, the Restoration probably still fails long term, likely when his brother is on on the throne as in OTL. The French Charter of 1814 created a VERY small electorate(basically only rich men who were alive before the Revolution), and was still too close to an absolute monarchy for most people.A whole generation of people were born after 1789 and had very different ideas on governing. Napoleon would probably have a more negative image as a result, but I am not clear if Bonapartism can be reborn later in this alternate 19th century.

Yes, they are still going to need to make reforms, and while Louis XVIII vaguely understood this, Charles X is always going to be a problem with his reactionary midset. I was thinking that maybe if you have no post-war occupation and white terror, public anger is just a bit lower so the régime can survive the reign of Charles. But I don't really know. Maybe have Charles assassinated instead of his son?
 
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Even if this works, the Restoration probably still fails long term, likely when his brother is on on the throne as in OTL. The French Charter of 1814 created a VERY small electorate(basically only rich men who were alive before the Revolution), and was still too close to an absolute monarchy for most people. A whole generation of people were born after 1789 and had very different ideas on governing. Napoleon would probably have a more negative image as a result, but I am not clear if Bonapartism can be reborn later in this alternate 19th century.

Yes, they are still going to need to make reforms, and while Louis XVIII vaguely understood this, Charles X is always going to be a problem with his reactionary midset. I was thinking that maybe if you have no post-war occupation and white terror, public anger is just a bit lower so the régime can survive the reign of Charles. But I don't really know. Maybe have Charles assassinated instead of his son?

I have little faith in the Bourbon after the Napoleonic Wars. If there had been a successful Restoration during the Revolution and stop the Napoleonic Wars from taking place, things might be different, but not in this case. No White Terror let thousands of Pro-Napoleon, liberal and moderate alive/not bully for the time being. Carrying out the White Terror....it is a lose-lose.

Louis XVIII had no kids so it would go Charles. Charles son Louis Antoine was much like his daddy so he is no good. So....get ready to see the Bourbon get the boot and kick out of France....again.

I don't think Napoleon would have a more negative image, but rather just a bit weaker. Either way, he will still be love and reverie and Bonapartism can still be a force if done right.
 
Polish-Saxon crisis leads to a war between Prussia and Russia (With Dutch support) vs Britain, Austria and France. Prussia gets all of Saxony while Russia gets all of Poland.

They were well on their way to the OTL agreement before the 100 days even started. Without Napoleon there's probably more whining and posturing but it comes out looking a lot like it did historically.
 
TBH Murat would have to go pretty hard into Nationalism, if he wanted to keep his position.

Which he certainly could do, especially if he cast himself as the Anti-Hapsburg candidate and tied himself to liberal/Napoleonic reforms (Something I think he could find backing from the Anglo-Prussian faction of the former Coalition). Assuming his retention help strengthen Britain's post-war position on Sicily, allowing the island to retain its new liberal government, and a Southern-lead unification is certainly within the cards. Granted, it'd probably bloodier/thornier or is a more gradual process than in our timeline, but that'd help "create the Italian before we create Italy"
 
Ironically, though, it DOES mean we come out of 1815 with a Bonapartist Kingdom still kicking around (The Kingdom of Naples) rather than re-uniting under a Borboun Two Sicilies. This could give the South more power/legitimacy in the coming era of Italian Nationalism, especially if Napoleon decides to be a dynamic ruler in Elba and builds connections between the different regions of Italy as an alternate pole to Hapsburg hegemony.

Buonaparte dynasty playing a role in Italian Unification? It's an idea I've considered with the same PoD. I'll be watching this closely.
 
Which he certainly could do, especially if he cast himself as the Anti-Hapsburg candidate and tied himself to liberal/Napoleonic reforms (Something I think he could find backing from the Anglo-Prussian faction of the former Coalition). Assuming his retention help strengthen Britain's post-war position on Sicily, allowing the island to retain its new liberal government, and a Southern-lead unification is certainly within the cards. Granted, it'd probably bloodier/thornier or is a more gradual process than in our timeline, but that'd help "create the Italian before we create Italy"

That would be amazing to see. And how it would go about uniting the rest of Italy down the line. (AKA: Dealing with the Papal States, Austria, Sardinia.)
 
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