Napoleon do not invades Spain and divides Portugal long-term effects.

[Pauh the federalist]

How will the coat of arms of a Bonaparte Portugal look like?

I found a fan site that features as a side note what looks like a good coat of arms (1st one) which seems to be based off of the Victorian era flag and coat of arms (2nd one)

Kingdom of France

The Kingdom of France (French: Royaume de France) is a kingdom and constituent province of the Vaniveran Empire. It comprises the original territory of France as stated at the Congress of Milan and the island of Corsica. It is a kingdom, divided into twenty-two regions with limited autonomy, but...

cybernations.fandom.com

List of Portuguese flags - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The coat of arms is not the main focus for the following (although there are some changes on the shield and backdrop) but I found a old site that seems to have some alt flags ideas that use the revolutionary colors mixed with Portugal's modern national colors that might fit the bill on a flag and make Portugal's coat of arms really pop (I am a big fan of the 2nd one).

J.A.E.S.’ proposal for the new portuguese national flag (1910-1911)

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

In regards to Portugal, I caution against assuming Nap will honor the agreement of division. He may just hand the whole crown to someone, and screw Godoy/Spain (who has not been a very reliable or enthusiastic ally).

If say Fernando VII has a son, this is probably the best case scenario for Napoleon as it avoids the Spanish ulcer almost entirely. The problem with Spain was that its choice of Kings during Napoleon's reign was quite bad. Carlos IV was easily influenced, incompetent, and decadent which as a result made him despised by his people. He however was pro-Napoleon, but with Ferdinand VII having popular support to unseat his father, this became a problem for Napoleon. He couldn't really trust Carlos to rule Spain as a reliable ally because of his incompetence, while Ferdinand was less-enthused with Napoleon.

Thus Napoleon decided to cut the Gordian knot of this whole situation, and arrest both of them while installing his brother as King securing Spain as an ally. Of course this backfired in his face spectacularly. If say Ferdinand has a son, the young boy King could instead be placed on the throne. This would mostly quiet the Spanish nationalist feeling rising against Napoleon as they have a legitimate Bourbon King instead of the foreign "Jose" Bonaparte. This also keeps Joseph happy as he was popular in Naples and quite liked the Kingdom there. He could then have a soft-puppet government put in place in conjunction with a assembling and action of a Cortes to create a French-based Constitution for Spain which would probably provide some stability for Spain, allowing it to liberalize somewhat. Thought this "liberalization" should not be conflated really with democratization as Napoleon and later his nephew in otl created basically a Constitutionally absolute monarchy in the manner of the Roman Republican Monarchy which created a centralized but more absolutist state than Louis XIV could ever dream of.

A Spain influenced by a victorious Napoleonic France would likely follow a similar path.

As for Portugal, to get Spain on its side, Napoleon might grant them parts of Southern Portugal while giving Murat the new puppet Kingdom as Napoleon initially promised. This keeps Murat out of the way (prevents Caroline Bonaparte from causing problems with her schemes) and sates his ego/vanity, but would also keep him dependent of France for support as he would likely be embraced by the Portuguese population with indifference/apathy.

 

[Vladyslav]

How will Spain keep its colonies under the continental blockade?

 

[unprincipled peter]

He couldn't really trust Carlos to rule Spain as a reliable ally because of his incompetence, while Ferdinand was less-enthused with Napoleon.

Spain as a whole was tired of being on France's side. Their colonies were in danger. The wars were a drain on their economy. Their sons were being forced to fight for a situation which would not benefit them at all. The only thing to gain was not being invaded by France. There was speculation that Spain was on the verge of flipping allegiances, but France was proving far too victorious.

Godoy was spectacularly hated. Charles IV could have survived had he jettisoned Godoy. But Charles and his wife (rumored to be sleeping with Godoy) did the opposite, rescuing Godoy from the masses.

Certainly, a Ferdinand son would lend more legitimacy, but he would have to rule under a French regent. Napoleon did not want Spain controlling her own affairs. He wanted a Spain under his thumb. This is at odds with what the Spanish want, which is mostly to escape being under Nap's thumb.

Perhaps, with the example of Portugal to show Spain what would happen if you crossed Napoleon, and a King with a little more legitimacy, Spain could be kept from revolting. In hindsight, might have been better to let Ferdinand rule, and conveniently keep troops in Portugal as a threat to keep him in line.

 

[Lusitania]

I had read somewhere that Ferdinand had planned to follow Portuguese royal family example and flee to new Spain. If that was true then Napoleon could never trust Ferdinand.

 

[Guatemalan Revolutionary]

Snip

Nice discovery Pauh!

 

[Guatemalan Revolutionary]

This would mostly quiet the Spanish nationalist feeling rising against Napoleon as they have a legitimate Bourbon King instead of the foreign "Jose" Bonaparte.

El bueno de Pepe Botellas, destroying Spanish culture and economy with his liberal ideology...

 

[Guatemalan Revolutionary]

Certainly, a Ferdinand son would lend more legitimacy, but he would have to rule under a French regent. Napoleon did not want Spain controlling her own affairs. He wanted a Spain under his thumb. This is at odds with what the Spanish want, which is mostly to escape being under Nap's thumb.

Perhaps, with the example of Portugal to show Spain what would happen if you crossed Napoleon, and a King with a little more legitimacy, Spain could be kept from revolting. In hindsight, might have been better to let Ferdinand rule, and conveniently keep troops in Portugal as a threat to keep him in line.

If Fernando married a Bonaparte and have at least one son Napoleon could put a relative on the Throne of Spain.

Now, I believe that having a full sized invasion army in your borders it isn’t something you cheer about, the King could make a quasi-liberal despotic constitution giving even more rights and opportunities for the people in both Mainland Spain and Ultramarine Spains (America and the Philippines), in case of rebellion he could send his Bourbon male relatives to solve the crisis and could lend him Murat, Ney or some other, saving at least one or two viceroyalties, for example, New Spain and Peru.

 

[oofo]

I was thinking about making a separate thread for this (still might), but I’ll throw this in here for the sake of butterflies...

If France can win the naval campaign in the Adriatic around 1810-18012, then their supply lines the the Balkans will be secure. If this happens, Napoleon may launch an attack on the Ottoman Empire in 1812 instead of Russia, as the two had previously agreed at Tilsit.

 

[Guatemalan Revolutionary]

If France can win the naval campaign in the Adriatic around 1810-18012, then their supply lines the the Balkans will be secure. If this happens, Napoleon may launch an attack on the Ottoman Empire in 1812 instead of Russia, as the two had previously agreed at Tilsit.

¿How will they divide the Ottoman Empire between France, Russia and maybe Austria?

¿We could see a Romanov Greece, a Bonaparte Bulgaria and the Habsburgs gaining more land?

 

[unprincipled peter]

I had read somewhere that Ferdinand had planned to follow Portuguese royal family example and flee to new Spain. If that was true then Napoleon could never trust Ferdinand.

IIRC, the royal family was en route to the coast to sail off to New Spain. I'd have to look up the details, but they ran into trouble along the way. Perhaps it was when a mob captured Godoy and was threatening to execute him?

 

[Lusitania]

IIRC, the royal family was en route to the coast to sail off to New Spain. I'd have to look up the details, but they ran into trouble along the way. Perhaps it was when a mob captured Godoy and was threatening to execute him?

The portuguese royal family had the luxury of their capital being on the coast. But in the case of the Spanish royal family having to travel from Madrid to Seville they would of needed better logistics and protection. But it could of changed Iberian peninsula history and new Spain if they had escaped. The king of Spain in New Spain would of robbed Napoleon of a hostage and wonder if he would of still put a competing king on the throne or done as I did in a previous TL of mine and created kingdoms of Castile and Aragon instead?

 

[unprincipled peter]

The portuguese royal family had the luxury of their capital being on the coast. But in the case of the Spanish royal family having to travel from Madrid to Seville they would of needed better logistics and protection. But it could of changed Iberian peninsula history and new Spain if they had escaped. The king of Spain in New Spain would of robbed Napoleon of a hostage and wonder if he would of still put a competing king on the throne or done as I did in a previous TL of mine and created kingdoms of Castile and Aragon instead?

It certainly makes for interesting times.
I would guess that Napoleon tries to put a competing king on the throne. What's the alternative? Stand there with a grumpy look on his face, wondering what to do?
The spanish folk are going to be grumpy, for sure. Their king (not all that beloved at the time) has abandoned them, leaving them at the mercy of a foreign invader. Do they continue allegiance to Carlos IV or Ferdinand? Who would they rally round if not? Go for a republic? Go along with Nap?
The colonies have a clear king, but business ties would be to Spain.

 

[Lusitania]

It certainly makes for interesting times.
I would guess that Napoleon tries to put a competing king on the throne. What's the alternative? Stand there with a grumpy look on his face, wondering what to do?
The spanish folk are going to be grumpy, for sure. Their king (not all that beloved at the time) has abandoned them, leaving them at the mercy of a foreign invader. Do they continue allegiance to Carlos IV or Ferdinand? Who would they rally round if not? Go for a republic? Go along with Nap?
The colonies have a clear king, but business ties would be to Spain.

But the Portuguese royal family did same and they stayed loyal to the king in Rio.

 

[Guatemalan Revolutionary]

But the Portuguese royal family did same and they stayed loyal to the king in Rio.

Indeed.

 

[unprincipled peter]

But the Portuguese royal family did same and they stayed loyal to the king in Rio.

I suppose this could be true for Ferdinand. Doubt Carlos gets much sympathy, having been the one to consort with the enemy and created the situation that led to the fiasco. The situations have some similarities, but they also have some differences. Can't assume the reactions will be the same.

But, we stray from the WI.

 

[Lusitania]

I suppose this could be true for Ferdinand. Doubt Carlos gets much sympathy, having been the one to consort with the enemy and created the situation that led to the fiasco. The situations have some similarities, but they also have some differences. Can't assume the reactions will be the same.

But, we stray from the WI.

The issue with Napoleon not invading Spain is that his forces still had to cross Spain to get to Portugal snd British control the seas. The British can and will land in Portugal and engage French forces there. The issue is that troops traveling through Spain without getting supplies from Spain be hard.

A Spain aligned with France and cut off from its colonies will very unpopular and unstable. It would be hard pressed to maintain that alliance and those who advocated it be targeted by many in Spain who be angry. Therefore the feasibility of Spain not being occupied by France to maintain its alliance be very low.

 

[Guatemalan Revolutionary]

The issue with Napoleon not invading Spain is that his forces still had to cross Spain to get to Portugal snd British control the seas. The British can and will land in Portugal and engage French forces there. The issue is that troops traveling through Spain without getting supplies from Spain be hard.

A Spain aligned with France and cut off from its colonies will very unpopular and unstable. It would be hard pressed to maintain that alliance and those who advocated it be targeted by many in Spain who be angry. Therefore the feasibility of Spain not being occupied by France to maintain its alliance be very low.

Unless a miracle reduces the RN to a pile of trash the Ultramarine Domains of Spain will fall in some way or another, although if some the Libertadores dies in a battle it could delay it and if peace with Britain is obtained maybe some Viceroyalty survives, if Britain is humbled by Napoleon, well, that’s another story.

 

[unprincipled peter]

The British can and will land in Portugal and engage French forces there. The issue is that troops traveling through Spain without getting supplies from Spain be hard.

My understanding is that Britain had written off Portugal as lost....until the Spanish uprising gave Britain a reason to enter the fray there. With French forces needed elsewhere, Portugal could be retaken and used as a launching point to get involved in Spain.

My take is that without Napoleon turning on Spain, France could maintain that uneasy alliance with Spain. Portugal would be subjugated, and dispensed with according to Nap's wishes. Godoy probably gets duped out of his promised kingdom. Wellesley takes his troops to Venezuela, where he runs into the tropical disease defenders.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I really want to see Murat as king in Portugal because I wanna see how Napoleon might've given more parts of Europe to his commanders, not just his kin.