Napoleon do not invades Spain and divides Portugal long-term effects.

The butterflies are flapping in more than just the Iberic world. No peninsular war has a huge effect on Napoleonic France itself
 
I mean, I'm hardly an expert, but Spain was a huge money sink, troop sink, and prestige sink for the French. It gave the British a much needed sense that they were doing something.

If not Spain, though, what exactly is Napoleon doing? The guy couldn't just sit still, it wasn't in his nature.
 
I mean, I'm hardly an expert, but Spain was a huge money sink, troop sink, and prestige sink for the French. It gave the British a much needed sense that they were doing something.

If not Spain, though, what exactly is Napoleon doing? The guy couldn't just sit still, it wasn't in his nature.
Maybe invade England or cement his power in America by DONT antagonizing the Haitian, he convinces Felipe to Marry some of his nieces, maybe he could attack Africa or the Ottomans or rekting Germany even further, IDK.
 

Lusitania

Donor
The invasion of Portugal by Spain / France was in 1807. That is already too late to save Haiti.

this does nothing to Portuguese since the court and nobles will still flee to Brazil.

Napoleon had an agreement with Godoy for him to keep southern Portugal as his own kingdom while a republic was established north of Tejo River (Tagus).

this provides Spain with no territory and king Ferdinand will still hate Godoy while Britain will send troops and weapons to the Portuguese. Godoy will need to insulate himself from Portuguese who had a huge hatred towards him and attempts against him would happen. So now France have troops far from France occupying Portugal with no means to supply them while British control seas can supply rebels and land troops without opposition.

Spain cannot supply France with any support since they have no $. They cut off from their colonies by British and now as a willing ally of France they be subject to attacks by both Portuguese and British forces.
 
I thought northern/central Portugal was also to have been a monarchy, not a republic?

Regardless, Francisco de Miranda is a happy camper, and maybe butterflies see the U.S. fighting Spain (and France) too?
 
Maybe a puppet Braganza Prince.
I think Murat was originally aiming for the Crown of Portugal. Caroline Bonaparte his wife was scheming to have her sons succeed Napoleon regardless of the laws of succession. She wanted her family's position elevated which was a reason why she also supported Murat in his ambition for a Crown.

It was really bad that Napoleon instructed his son not to accept any food offered by them.
 
I think Murat was originally aiming for the Crown of Portugal. Caroline Bonaparte his wife was scheming to have her sons succeed Napoleon regardless of the laws of succession. She wanted her family's position elevated which was a reason why she also supported Murat in his ambition for a Crown.

It was really bad that Napoleon instructed his son not to accept any food offered by them.
80D7D8CE-C079-497D-99A6-CCA1672B9080.jpeg

Murat after being nayed by Napoleon.
 
The most common consensus of napolion freeing up the Iberian grand army is that he either
1. Militarily uses the unified weight of the combined grand army to force russia submission into the continental syestem, (side note possibly also carving out there polish lithuanian lands to prevent them from being a threat later since napolion will still probably be warry of them after a difficult campaign even if he wins).
2.Diplomaticly gets russia to the table on the contintal system by partitioning the Ottoman empire between them. (Side note if britan still does not give up after a full European/Mediteranian contintal system then I expect napolions next move would be to try to use the shock of the collapse of the ottomans to force persian cooperation (possibly giving them Mesopotamia in the partition as a bargaining chip) with France and Russia to conduct a round 2 of napolions original plan to invade India)
 
Last edited:
The most common consensus of napolion freeing up the Iberian grand army is that he either
1. Militarily uses the unified weight of the combined grand army to force russia submission into the continental syestem, (side note possibly also carving out there polish lithuanian lands to prevent them from being a threat later since napolion will still probably be warry of them after a difficult campaign even if he wins).
2.Diplomaticly gets russia to the table on the contintal system by partitioning the Ottoman empire between them. (Side note if britan still does not give up after a full European/Mediteranian contintal system then I expect napolions next move would be to try to use the shock of the collapse of the ottomans to force persian cooperation (possibly giving them Mesopotamia in the partition as a bargaining chip) with France and Russia to conduct a round 2 of napolions original plan to invade India)
That latter possibility is certainly interesting.
 
This is a topic that has been discussed many times here (and elsewhere). It's the turning point in the fortunes of Napoleon/France. I suggest doing a search, to get the outlooks of those who don't wish to rehash the topic yet again.
The Nap Wars are massively changed. Write the narrative as you will.

In regards to Portugal, I caution against assuming Nap will honor the agreement of division. He may just hand the whole crown to someone, and screw Godoy/Spain (who has not been a very reliable or enthusiastic ally).

Also, Britain was well on its way to writing off mainland Portugal, looking instead to reap the most benefits from the Portuguese colonial sphere. I have my doubts Portugal becomes a battleground. I think Britain only sent troops once the Spanish fiasco unfolded. The populace is stunned that their monarch, and many/most of the elites, abandoned them in the middle of the night. They might well simply accept a new monarch. Regardless of how the Nap Wars turn out, the Braganzas may not have a home to return to.
 
Top