Napoleon dies in Russia: Effect on rest of Europe.

There was a rumor that Napoleon tried to take poison on the way back from Russia, but that the poison was not that potent anymore due to the freezing Russian weather. So, say that this happens, and the poison actually kills him, or that Napoleon froze to death. Either way, he is dead. What exactly is the effect of his death in 1812 on the rest of Europe?

For instance:


  • In France itself we have a young baby Napoleon II, barely a year old at this time - but there is a chance that he could be propped up by his Grandfather who is also the Austrian Emperor as well. so a possible Franco-Austrian alliance maybe?
  • Also, there was also the attempted coup by Claude Francois de Malet at this time, so maybe Napoleons death could make him more determined to act. (and yes, i know that it would rake a while for news to reach him about Napoleons death)
  • There is also the ongoing Peninsular war at this time as well. So would Arthur Wellesley also act a bit more determined to reduce French power in Spain?
  • Also, there are territorial concessions to take into account. No doubt that Napoleons death would spur all the other nations of Europe at the time against France to reduce their territorial overreach, so how much reduced territory would France still be able to control? Say, like Belguim and the Netherlands? maybe even some of Spain or Italy?
  • Finally, how would the United States react to this? the War of 1812 was well underway at this point, would the British send more soldiers to the Americas than they did in OTL?
 
no takers?

Well off the top of my head the big deal would be an end to the fighting once someone else is in charge. No Napoleon comming back for 100 days and getting a totally other number of people killed in the Waterloo campaign just because he was bored in exile.

Austrian-French alliance you say? Ok, that has potential to bring a more conventional ruler into power and end the wars. The question becomes how likely are the other powers going to be to leave the individuals who gained a lot from Napoleon being in power enough so they don't keep fighting just to avoid losing power/money/their lives?

Wellington using it to reduce French power in Spain? He will do what he sees is in Britain's interests and obey instructions from Parliament. So it depends on what the Corsican corporal's replacement does and whether that leads to peace or not. Napoleon himself was demonised - I think they actually called him 'the monster' at times - his replacement might be willing to cut a deal. See previous paragraph.
 
Austrian-French alliance you say? Ok, that has potential to bring a more conventional ruler into power and end the wars. The question becomes how likely are the other powers going to be to leave the individuals who gained a lot from Napoleon being in power enough so they don't keep fighting just to avoid losing power/money/their lives?
Well railroads havnt been invented yet, and Russia is still slowly chasing the Grande Armee. Its still a long way to Paris, especially if they have to go through a hostile Austria as well. On the other hand, i doubt Austria would want Kutuzov marching through Vienna either.

Tsar Alexander seemed to have held animosity for Napoleon personally (for his betrayal and invasion) rather than France and the Napoleonic Coalition in general, so i think Russia would be willing to talk, if France/Austria could make it worth their while. But ONLY if any peace would effectively neuter France and significantly loosen or dismantle Napoleon's alliance system. Alexander was the forward thinking sort, and he would likely see that an early peace would be no peace at all, but merely an armistice before France and Austria try to invade Russia again. They did burn down Moscow after all.

Likely result there, Vienna is captured by Russia and Prussia (and whatever allies they obtain from other Rhine Confederation defectors), giving them a position of strength to negotiate from. Russia is WINNING the war. Even if Austria stands against them they're unlikely to stop. Not if the alternative is to allow France and Austria to lick their wounds and come back again in a few years. Over half of the Grande Armee had been Germans after all.

So while i think both sides are definitely willing for an end to the fighting, the question is more whether a treaty that is acceptable to both sides can be created, and how many more battles it will take to make said treaty more appealing.

As for Britain, they've been doing this thing for years, so they'll keep doing what they do. Even better now that Russia and Prussia are back in the game.

My 2cents anyways.
 
In chronological order
-Napoleon's marshals are devastated by their Emperor's death and lose valuable time. Which leads the Russian army closing the distance and Kutuzov to before confident and aggressive. So he is victorious and destroys the remaining French army
-His family members proclaim themselves Emperor
King Joseph Bonaparte quits offensive and rushes to Paris, his relatives follow example
-Wellington starts chase
-Prussian armies march towards Paris
-Russian armies join Austrians forces in Bohemia and move to march on Paris
-Britain sends an army to Brittany
-That army faces Joseph and loses
-Joseph defeats his relatives in Paris and takes the crown
-Prussians begin siege of Paris
-Wellington joins siege
-Russo-Austrian forces arrive and win siege and capture Joseph
-Paris is sacked
-French Empire dissolved
-Britain moves Wellington along with others and large armies to America
-Portugal, Spain + more joins War of 1812
-Spain is given support by other European nations and crushes rebellions in the Americas and helps GBR in 1812


1. France was to dangerous and powerful to ally with, unless forced to
2. By time news reaches some relative of Napoleon controls Paris
3. Obviously
4. France's empire is demolished, even less territories than before Napoleon
5. Britain moves military resources to Americas and is joined by Portugal(just saved them) and maybe others. Britain then wins 1812
 
OTL, the victorious powers bandied about the idea of leaving the infant bonaparte in power with his mother, the Austrian princess, as nominal regent. Since Nap was still alive, the powers figured he would somehow finagle his was back someday. Thus, that idea was stillborn. With Nap dead, that idea might gain traction.

Without Nap to deal with, and with the French being sick of war, I'm guessing feelers go out to negotiate a peace (which I think went out OTL anyway, but were rejected with Nap still being in power), and I think there's a good possibility one ensues. Everyone, everywhere, were sick of war, and only wanted total victory because Nap was alive. With Nap dead, and the French willing to sit down at the table, would the war weary world keep going?

OTL, the victorious powers were quite lenient, especially prior to the 100 day return. There's no reason they wouldn't be accomodating to a negotiated peace.

Where things get sticky is getting England, Russia, Prussia, Austria on the same page reorganizing Europe while France still has some military clout to create factions. France ended up mostly unscathed, OTL (aside from material/human war losses). The big outcome of the war was the reorg during the congress of Vienna. This issue gets muddied big time.

With French pulling out of Spain (they were getting kicked out at that point anyway), that theatre resolves quickly.

At this point, realizing England now can bring all forces to bear, the US says holy shit, we can settle this at the table, too!
 
In all likelihood, there'd be a negotiated peace. War was no longer popular anywhere in Europe, and a further drive to Paris to see the abdication of Napoleon is no longer necessary.

What we'll likely see, as a result of the peace though,

1) Another partition of Poland, or a Congress Poland. The Grand Duchy's existence simply doesn't suit Prussia or Russia, and Austria, while not entirely hostile to the entity, is ambivalent at best.

2) the rollback of French influence in Italy: it'll be divided, at the least, with Austrian and probably British influence. France may maintain a presence in Piedmont, but Venice and probably Milan goes to Austria, either under direct administration or satellite states.

3) The Confederation of the Rhine will be a point of contention. Not sure what the prevailing interests here are, but it'll cease to be an effective French satellite entirely. The individual states as well as the Confederation itself, however, may survive (though the latter will certainly change).

4) The Bonapartist heads of Europe, particularly in Holland and the Two Sicilies, they may be removed as OTL, or not, depending on the course of the negotiations.

5) With a negotiated peace, France is significantly less weak on the bargaining table, and the great powers are much less united in their positions.

6) Prussia, with an early negotiated peace, will likely not receive the Rhineland or Westphalia. Given their effective non-contribution to the victory, they have significantly less weight in the negotiations compared to OTL. They'll gain lands from the Duchy and from Saxony, but it's hard to see what else.

7) Russia is victorious, but there's only so much that it can demand. Besides annexing Poland and Finland, there really isn't too much more it can demand from a territorial perspective. It will have largely secured its immediate sphere and borders, and with France humbled, it can't really afford to make itself the newest threat to European stability.

8) Austria is probably the largest gainer. With the near full scale rollback of French influence in Italy and Germany, the relative weakness of Prussia as a competitor for influence the latter category, and what is effectively a Habsburg on the French Throne, they have the diplomatic space and position to make large gains.

9) It's probable France keeps the Rhineland and Belgium as part of its natural frontier. Nationalism and linguistic arguments, at this time and era, are largely anachronistic concerns, and to my knowledge, the Rhineland was pretty supportive of Bonaparte and France itself, given the removal of the aristocratic ruling class and various princes/bishoprics from an otherwise burgher dominated society.

This will have major ramifications once industrialization sets in.
 
I disagree about Italy. Murat and possibly Eugene are going to keep their thrones. The final arrangement is probably along the lines of Italian parts of the French Empire are annexed to either Italy, Naples, or in incorporated into a renewed reduced Papal state around Rome, Austria getting some favorable border change and of course all of the Illyrian provinces, and the lesser Italian states probably keep being around.
The Kingdom of Italy is very likely to survive and even expand in this context, as its continued existence suits well with pretty much everyone except Austria. Piedmont might revert to House of Savoy, although I am not sure it's likely.
Holland is a very likely point of contention. Everyone will want France to pull out, and they's probably comply, but minght insist in keeping the parts south of the Rhine, that would piss off the Dutch to no end, esp. as the same time, their supposed British "allies" are going to insist to keep the Cape.
 
Inquisitor, Falecius:

excellent posts.

Louis Bonaparte really wanted his throne back in Holland. France wanted a good portion of what became Belgium. England wanted a buffer state. It's possible that a compromise is France keeping the Belgian portion, while Louis gets his throne back, which he only lost because he pissed off Nap by trying to stay as neutral as possible. There isn't a scenario out there, sans outright British defeat that Britain coughs up dutch South Africa. OTL, The Brits were pretty good at keeping its own war spoils while insisting everyone else revert back to pre war status.

I'm thinking that Jerome Bonaparte in Wesphalia gets abandoned militarily by the french. I don't think he ever gained any respect from his subjects (unlike Louis in Holland), and I think that if the germans decide he's gone, he's gone. Pretty much the same for the confederation of the rhine in general. The french are out. the only questions are what squabbling amongst the small states break out, and what length the larger states will go to in brokering the peace.
 
King Joseph Bonaparte quits offensive and rushes to Paris, his relatives follow example
Joseph Bonaparte ascends to the French throne? really? why him? would not think that anyone would want a Bonaparte on the throne again, but i guess you have just as much chance of getting him on the Throne as you day his nephew (who has Austrian support) and even the Bourbons (who has support of other nations besides, such as Britain etcetra.)

1) Another partition of Poland, or a Congress Poland. The Grand Duchy's existence simply doesn't suit Prussia or Russia, and Austria, while not entirely hostile to the entity, is ambivalent at best.
Poland always has to suffer. But then again, it only exists due to Napoleon at the moment. Still, somehow maintaining a buffer state there might be an interesting adaptation to the treaty.

2) the rollback of French influence in Italy: it'll be divided, at the least, with Austrian and probably British influence. France may maintain a presence in Piedmont, but Venice and probably Milan goes to Austria, either under direct administration or satellite states.

Cenice seems more likely to me. the HRE always had its eyes on Venice, yet that damn city was always determined to keep its independence, one way or the other.

3) The Confederation of the Rhine will be a point of contention. Not sure what the prevailing interests here are, but it'll cease to be an effective French satellite entirely. The individual states as well as the Confederation itself, however, may survive (though the latter will certainly change).

4) The Bonapartist heads of Europe, particularly in Holland and the Two Sicilies, they may be removed as OTL, or not, depending on the course of the negotiations.

5) With a negotiated peace, France is significantly less weak on the bargaining table, and the great powers are much less united in their positions.
no one would want to see a Bonaparte on the throne of any nation. Anything less than Napoleons brothers. The only reason why i keep suggesitng his son, Napoleon II, is because of his youth, and also, his grandfather, the Austrian Emperor would not miss an opportunity to have a foothold in France's affairs.

6) Prussia, with an early negotiated peace, will likely not receive the Rhineland or Westphalia. Given their effective non-contribution to the victory, they have significantly less weight in the negotiations compared to OTL. They'll gain lands from the Duchy and from Saxony, but it's hard to see what else.

early start to the German Confederation maybe?

7) Russia is victorious, but there's only so much that it can demand. Besides annexing Poland and Finland, there really isn't too much more it can demand from a territorial perspective. It will have largely secured its immediate sphere and borders, and with France humbled, it can't really afford to make itself the newest threat to European stability.

i agree.

8) Austria is probably the largest gainer. With the near full scale rollback of French influence in Italy and Germany, the relative weakness of Prussia as a competitor for influence the latter category, and what is effectively a Habsburg on the French Throne, they have the diplomatic space and position to make large gains.

I concur.

9) It's probable France keeps the Rhineland and Belgium as part of its natural frontier. Nationalism and linguistic arguments, at this time and era, are largely anachronistic concerns, and to my knowledge, the Rhineland was pretty supportive of Bonaparte and France itself, given the removal of the aristocratic ruling class and various princes/bishoprics from an otherwise burgher dominated society.

This will have major ramifications once industrialization sets in.

Forgot about that whole natural Frontier thing. they would definitely want to make sure that the Rhine is their border, regardless. and depending on the German states in the region they may allow it. Still, i would think there would be continued fighting over such an arrangement.
France has always, to some degree, considered Belgium to be apart of its nation. so i am not too concerned about its loss, hell, i actually consider they would try their hardest to keep it, but when it comes to the Rhine, well - how strong are their ties to the Confederation states along the Rhine, because even they turned against France/Napoleon in otl.
 
Joseph Bonaparte ascends to the French throne? really? why him? would not think that anyone would want a Bonaparte on the throne again, but i guess you have just as much chance of getting him on the Throne as you day his nephew (who has Austrian support) and even the Bourbons (who has support of other nations besides, such as Britain etcetra.)

I'm not staying he stays king France is reorganized after sacking of Paris. Buy the reason he was emperor was because he had the largest army out of all of his relatives.
 
Joseph Bonaparte was only slightly more than a figurehead in Spain. It was Napoleon's army that Joseph pretended to be the leader of. The reason he was elevated to Spain was because, of the brothers, he was the one who kissed Nap's ass the most. both Louis and Jerome showed independent streaks. Joseph was Nap's front man. Nap collapses, Joseph collapses. It's ASB to project him to French leader. Of any Bonaparte, it's the toddler, or it's back to the Bourbons.
 
It would be a quite chaotic situation, I guess.

Of the Grande Armee, less than 24000 of 600k men survived - but would it make a difference if the Russians caught Napoleon's marshals who were in Russia?
 
I think Marie Louise is regent for Napoleon II and peace is made fairly quickly. France is going to give up its territories beyond the Rhine and the Alps. I think the House of Savoy maybe gets restored in Piedmont and is given Genoa; the house of Bourbon-Parma gets Tuscany back; and a limited Papal States is restored in Latium, Umbria, and the Marches. Parma goes to the Modena branch of the Habsburgs, and Murat remains in Naples. There's some sort of restoration of Dutch independence, although I'm not sure what form it takes. The Hanseatic cities and Oldenburg are restored, and Hanover is given back to the British King.

The Grand Duchy of Berg is eliminated - Prussia is going to get back Cleves, Mark, and Ravensberg, and probably Berg as well. Westphalia likewise - Hesse-Kassel and Brunswick are restored. Prussia probably gets Munster, Paderborn, and other territories from Westphalia. I don't think anything bad will happen to the King of Saxony, since at this point his role has been indistinguishable from any of the other German rulers. The Duchy of Warsaw is partitioned between Prussia and Russia. The Illyrian Provinces and the Tyrol are restored or given to Austria. Spain returns to the Bourbons. The Duchy of Frankfurt goes to Francis's brother Ferdinand, in exchange for Wurzburg, which goes to Bavaria in exchange for Tyrol. Bavaria probably keeps Salzburg.

Switzerland gets its old borders restored. Denmark keeps Norway and Sweden keeps Pomerania. Lauenburg is restored to Hanover.

The Confederation of the Rhine is replaced by a German Confederation of which Prussia and Austria are members.

Short run upshot is going to be a weaker Prussia and a stronger France than OTL.

Am I missing anything?
 
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