Neveroki wisely retreated, fighting an effective rearguard action, against Murat's Cavalry. Murat refused to let Nay's III Corps to join in the action, which permitted Neveroki to escape, suffering 1,500 casualties. Barclay Tolly, and Bagration only learned of the French move after midnight on the 15th, and beat a hasty retreat toward Smolensk, with General Raveski's VII Corps arriving at dawn to reinforce Bennigsen's garrison. If Neveroki had been crushed on the 14th the French Cavalry could have reached Smolensk on the morning of the 15th, before the main Russian Armies reach it. Napoleon almost inexplicably imposed an operational pause on the 15th, allowing the Russians time to occupy the cities defenses.
OK, let's assume that this happened and Murat arrived to the city before Raevsky. Then what? To the best of my knowledge the horses are not very good at climbing the walls and Smolensk had been surrounded by the high medieval walls. Of course, these fortifications were rather obsolete, however the walls (13 - 9 meters high and 5 - 6 meters thick) were there and Murat did not have any means to scale them or to break through them unless the garrison kept the gates open. Bennigsen was not a military genius but he was a very experienced and competent general so the chances of him being caught hibernating while the French cavalry rides into the city would be extremely slim. In other words, the whole idea of the city being captured by a cavalry charge is preposterous: as was commented by Segur, it belonged to the Prussian War when the fortresses had been capitulating to the few squadrons of the French cavalry.
OTOH, on 15th Raevsky, who was only within 15km from Smolensk, marched through the city, took position 6km South of it and, after joining with retreating Neverosky, marched back to the city.
What Murat could do was to occupy some of the suburbs to the South of the city which is not the same as taking the city.
The battle on the 16th was a near run thing, with the French almost taking the Royal Citadel,
It is better known as Royal Bastion, the earthworks built by Sigismund III to replace part of the wall blown during the siege of Smolensk.
an attack on the 15th would have been much more likely to have succeed.
Except that on the 15th the French would not have the troops needed for the general assault. Ney reached the suburbs on the morning of the 16th and Davout around 4PM. Bagration got to the Northern bank by 5PM and Barclay in the evening. French attack did not start until the next day because the general assault upon a fortified and defended city required the preparations. So, at the very best, the attack could not happen before 16th and Raevsky was already within the city.
Besides, as far as destruction of the Russian army is involved this would not matter too much because their main force was to the North of the city (see the map above).
Better yet it would've been better to mask the city, and move East to cut the Moscow Road.
Which assumes that the Russians are staying near Smolensk no matter what. Which was Napoleon's assumption but not Barclay's intention. On the 16th he sent the 2nd Army to Valutino to protect the line of retreat. After finding this out Napoleon ordered to find the fords so that he could attack the junction of the 1st and 2nd armies but the ford could not be found (Dnieper is a rather big river even at Smolensk) after which he ordered a massive bombardment of the city and a general attack.
The Russians would have been forced to abandon Smolensk, and fight the French in the open, at very poor odds.
The bulk of their forces was not at Smolensk to start with so "abandoning" of the city applies to a single corps and "fight the French in the open" simply irrelevant.
Napoleon was expecting that Smolensk is going to be a decisive battle but Barclay was planning it as exclusively rearguard action (which he made abundantly clear in his description of the 1812 campaign).
Defense of Smolensk was impossible (among many other reasons, because the predominantly wooden city would be on fire as a result of the bombardment) and placing the bulk of the Russian troops inside the city would be plain suicidal so that this argument of yours does not make too much practical sense (admittedly, it is quite popular among those inspired by the French narrative which was picked up by some Anglophonic authors
The fear of that move caused the Russians to retreat down the Moscow Road on the night of the 17th/18th. As it was the 1st Army was almost cut off, but Junot refused to take the risk of attacking at Prudichevo, and the Russians escaped.
One more popular story that has little to do with a reality. You are talking about the events which happened after Smolensk was abandoned and the Russian armies had been retreating (see the map below) while the bulk of the Napoleon's forces were marching after them from Smolensk. No, the 1st Army was not "almost cut off" and Junot's role in the maneuver was rather modest.
Let's start with Junot and resources he had. At the start of campaign the 8th corps had 18,800 with 34 guns. During July the corps lost 2/3 of its numbers (stragglers and sick). At Orsha it was reinforced by 1,000 infantrymen and 300 cavalrymen. In other words, he had (optimistically) between 10 and 15K. An idea that Junot with his troops could play a critical role is somewhat optimistic and the blame unfair: he was ordered to advance in the unfamiliar swampy area and it took a while for him to accomplish the task; if he was more lucky and decisive, he would find himself in the midst of the 1st Russian Army and most probably destroyed.
The 2nd Army was already 50 km away defending the Dnieper crossing. The 1st army had been retreating by 2 roads (the shortest one was along the Dnieper and exposed to the French artillery fire). The 2nd corps of Baggovut was sent directly through the forest because the road on which the rest of the column marched had been congested. What followed is know as Battle of Valutin Mountain or as a Battle of Lubino. Troops of Major-General Tuchkov the 3rd (not to be confused with Lieutenant-General Tuchkov the 1st, commander of the 1st column) took position in front of the crossing with the Moscow Road to secure the march of the 2nd column moving under command of Dokhturov by the Northern route (the 1st column already passed through). The main goal of Tuchkov the 3rd was to give enough time to the 2nd corps to get to the Moscow Road.
Neither Ney nor Murat operating against the Russians along the main road demonstrated any miracles or excessive aggressiveness. The Russian rearguard of Tuchkov the 3rd was not engaged in any serious fight until the evening of August 19th when the 3rd and 4th Russian corps already arrived. The French also needed time to bring infantry and artillery so Ney's 1st attack happened only at 5PM. With more French troops arriving, the battle continued after a sunset and there were only approximately 30,000 directly engaged on each side.
When you say they could just Simply retreat North, just what route would they take? Toward Inkovo? There were other French forces in that direction to block the road.
The French troops to the North of Smolensk did not have enough numbers to "block" 100 - 120,000 (or even 80,000) with any chance for success.
The Russians were very lucky at Smolensk, that a convergence of French mistakes, along with quick thinking, and hard fighting on their part that saved them. It all could have gone very badly for the Russians.
Of course, it could go badly for them if they were idiots. OTOH, the French did not make too many serious mistakes on the way to Smolensk except for the fact that Napoleon's basic premise was wrong: he counted upon the Russian offensive toward Vitebsk and, indeed, for a while Barclay (under the pressure of Alexander and the "Russian Party") was making moves in that direction. However, these plans were speedily abandoned as soon as the enemy's movements became clear the whole idea was abandoned and the Russians had a shorter distance to march in Smolensk direction: Russian troops arrived to the right (Northern) bank of the Dnieper the day before Napoleon's main force arrived to the South of the city. The whole episode with Junot & Co is post-Smolensk and, again, there was no risk of destruction of the 1st Army.
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