Napolean wins after escape from elba?

Only with crushing victories at Ligny and Waterloo, and he would need to persuade the rest of the coalition that he wouldn't go invading across Europe again. And I really doubt they would believe him.

Agreed.
The Coalition had the men, arms, and committment to outlast him by pure attrition if they had too.

He had no chance after Leipzig
 

Don Quijote

Banned
Agreed.
The Coalition had the men, arms, and committment to outlast him by pure attrition if they had too.

He had no chance after Leipzig
Well in 1815 the committment wasn't quite the same as it had been in 1813, when there were non-French territories actually occupied by the French. The Russians could plausibly decide that he is far enough away to not be a threat, and leave the fighting to the other coalition members, and the Austrians might make a separate peace.
 
Well in 1815 the committment wasn't quite the same as it had been in 1813, when there were non-French territories actually occupied by the French. The Russians could plausibly decide that he is far enough away to not be a threat, and leave the fighting to the other coalition members, and the Austrians might make a separate peace.

Your probably right about the Russians, but IIRC the Austrians and Prussians wanted blood. With British blank checks financing even a long war effort, i dont see yet another negotiated peace with Nappy as possible, not one that leaves him on the throne at least.
 

longsword14

Banned
Well in 1815 the committment wasn't quite the same as it had been in 1813, when there were non-French territories actually occupied by the French. The Russians could plausibly decide that he is far enough away to not be a threat, and leave the fighting to the other coalition members, and the Austrians might make a separate peace.
Not going to happen because a Napoleon-less scenario had prevailed and it was mutually acceptable to all parties. They will want to go back to the situation again. That is what they did in the aftermath.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
Your probably right about the Russians, but IIRC the Austrians and Prussians wanted blood. With British blank checks financing even a long war effort, i dont see yet another negotiated peace with Nappy as possible, not one that leaves him on the throne at least.
The British are obviously the never ending opponents of Napoleon, and will probably keep whittling away at his power in whatever way they can until he dies, but if they get crushed at Waterloo (unlikely but possible), they won't want to keep throwing money at the rest of Europe if they don't see results. And there was more of a grudging respect for Napoleon in Britain too, as they didn't have the humiliation of occupation that Prussia did, so the desire for revenge was weaker. I can't really say about the Austrians, they're my weakest bit of the Napoleonic Wars, so I'll take your word for it that they were as motivated as the Prussians.
 

longsword14

Banned
The British are obviously the never ending opponents of Napoleon, and will probably keep whittling away at his power in whatever way they can until he dies, but if they get crushed at Waterloo (unlikely but possible), they won't want to keep throwing money at the rest of Europe if they don't see results. And there was more of a grudging respect for Napoleon in Britain too, as they didn't have the humiliation of occupation that Prussia did, so the desire for revenge was weaker. I can't really say about the Austrians, they're my weakest bit of the Napoleonic Wars, so I'll take your word for it that they were as motivated as the Prussians.
Britain had what it wanted in 1814. It would do whatever needed to go back into this situation. The allied army in Belgium (made primarily not of British soldiers), if it gets hammered implies victory in the hands of the Austrians and Russians. A weaker place on the table for Britain but as long as nothing great changes on the continent it would not be all that important
to Britian's interests.
Oh, and if you have kept everything as it was till Quatre Bras, Ligny and Napoleon somehow crushed Wellington, then it would have likely happened after he had destroyed the Prussians.
Very difficult to do, but it also means that the French army would have had losses and be in bad shape, thus would need some time to get troops from other frontier armies, or more men (Davout would know).
 

Don Quijote

Banned
Britain had what it wanted in 1814. It would do whatever needed to go back into this situation. The allied army in Belgium (made primarily not of British soldiers), if it gets hammered implies victory in the hands of the Austrians and Russians. A weaker place on the table for Britain but as long as nothing great changes on the continent it would not be all that important
to Britian's interests.
Oh, and if you have kept everything as it was till Quatre Bras, Ligny and Napoleon somehow crushed Wellington, then it would have likely happened after he had destroyed the Prussians.
Very difficult to do, but it also means that the French army would have had losses and be in bad shape, thus would need some time to get troops from other frontier armies, or more men (Davout would know).
Napoleon didn't take any British territory in the 1815 campaign, so in theory there's no change in the situation (only in theory of course). I'm not saying that they would have let Napoleon back without a fight, but the question is how long the British will sustain that fight if they believe Napoleon is not a severe threat, and in 1815 he was not. To keep the Coalition out of France would have been at the limit of his abilities, never mind taking the war to Britain or its colonies.
 
By 1815 France is out of men and money. He could win battles but the war is lost. No one would trust him on the throne not to attack so peace is not an option. After Leipzig the allies knew they won any war of attrition so that's what they would do. Delay , maneuver and only when they had numbers attack. Its very unlikely even a victory at Waterloo would have bought more than a month or two. The Austrians were coming , the recruiting grounds of Germany would replenish Prussian armies not French and Britain would spend whatever it took to keep Russia in the fight (and if it had too, even agree to allow more Ottoman territory to be annexed )
 
This was asked a lot of times.

The general opinion is no. I happen to be in the minority who disagrees, but even I think it would require a lot of Breaks to go Napoleon's way (including a change in UK government)
 

tenthring

Banned
What exactly was Napoleon selling in 1815?

In the early 1800s Napoleon could at least sell the French Revolution to the peasants of Europe. Yeah maybe it was bullshit in many ways, but like most things in life it was a mixed bag and some people liked the Code Napoleon even if it came wrapped in French abuse and dominance. Over time though the fantasies of the revolution gave way to the realities of the revolution. France was clearly exploiting is neighbors, and that exploitation became more and more brash. Napoleon himself went down a bad path. By 1809 he's starting stupid shit like the Peninsular campaign. By 1812 he's marching a bunch of German allies to their graves to make Russians stop selling trade goods? How does that help bring about liberty, legality, fraternity.

in 1813 there was a battle for the heart of Germany. Napoleon lost, and without the German allies the French just don't have the manpower. The war was over at that point.

Yeah, many Frenchmen didn't like the guy they put in charge of France after. That isn't enough though. By 1815 the whole Napoleonic era was running on ideological fumes.
 
It's doable...but it's a steep climb. He'd have to deliver major victories at QB/L and Waterloo, and subsequent engagements against the Russians and Austrians, Then return to his formula of breaking up the coalition piece by piece, ie destroy Prussia's ability to fight and knock them out, then turn on Austria, etc.

Britain as ever will be the sink-hole, but there are a couple of differences. First they'd now have faced a massive defeat, something they'd not really had to endure before, and that might shake support. In his memories, NB says that about this time he'd become aware of the effectiveness of the propaganda campaign in Britain. If he funds contrary campaigns....say pointing out that it's been almost always others breaking treaties/making war and him forcing peace...you could undermine the popular government.

He's also going to have to fight pretty economically. He'd have another wave of manpower on the way relatively soon, but until then he 's going to be fighting with pretty limited resources. And somewhere he'll have to find horses...maybe the Americas. It'd be a monumental task, but we are talking Napoleon here...he'd beat tougher odds before. Which brings me to my last point; he's going to have to be much healthier. None of the rest matters if he's forced to sit out major phases of crucial battles like at Waterloo: he cannot afford the kinds of blunders his subbirdinates made. Davout and a few others he can trust to take the reins, but he's going to have to be physically up to the demands of a campaign.
 
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He's also going to have to fight pretty economically. He'd have another wave of manpower on the way relatively soon, but until then he 's going to be fighting with pretty limited resources. And somewhere he'll have to find horses...maybe the Americas. It'd be a monumental task, but we are talking Napoleon here...he'd beat tougher odds before. Which brings me to my last point; he's going to have to be much healthier. None of the rest matters if he's forced to sit out major phases of crucial battles like at Waterloo: he cannot afford the kinds of blunders his subbirdinates made. Davout and a few others he can trust to take the reins, but he's going to have to be physically up to the demands of a campaign.

Well... considering he's under blockade and the RN is in the way... I very much doubt he's getting horses from the Americas.
 
I have a friend who compare Waterloo with the Battle of Berlin, it was the last great battle, but the war was over by that point, the reason the battle are described as important, is because of two reason British historian and because UK didn't take part in the battle which was the real last chance of Nappy, the Battle of Leipzig/Nations. If Napoleon had won Waterloo, his last battle would just have been the next.
 
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