N00B WI: Napoleon never invades Russia

I have recently read some books on the Napoleonic Wars, and it seems to me, total history amateur as I am, that Napoleon actually had a lot going for him before he decided to blow his whole empire on the Russian adventure. With a POD of 1811, let's say that Napoleon never invaded Russia. How would things have gone for the French empire? Would the conquered territories have become stable parts of the empire, or would the french army be over-stretched in trying to hold the empire together?
Specifically, let's say Napoleon lives till the age of 70 (1839). How would mainland Europe look at that point? Would the French still dominate through vassals and alliances, or would the empire be fragmented by internal strife?

I'm thinking that the peninsular war would probably have been a considerable challenge, but not the kind of long, drawn out and unwinable conflict it was in the "real world".

The German states were almost completly subdued, as far as I know, and the Polish in the Grand Duchy of Warsaw would probably be greatfull for the (technical) independence that Napoleon gave them, so I see westren Europe as pretty stable.

I don't know how the Austrians and the Ottomans would behave, though. Maybe they would prefer an alliance with the french to being on their own aganist Russia. Alternatively, both could ally with Russia and England to bring down the empire.

Thoughts and comments on the subject would be appreciated. If I've broken any forum rules in my post, or if my ideas seem stupid or poorly thought out, I'm sorry, I'm new :).
 
If this is a joke thread then like when others post joke threads 'I can't be arsed'. If not then take into account that Britain has utter naval supremacy and will likely make things as difficult as possible in Spain, being able to pull out when ever they meet too strong opposition. The Polish issue and the continental system has Russia at ends with France and any kind of formal truce is only going to delay a Russian entry to the war, and getting that formal truce is pretty difficult short of the ASB forum; sure Alexander and Napoleon were great 'friends' but that by it's self is not enough.

The moment Russia declares war on the Eastern front it will stretch France even more, similarly Prussia and Austria will jump in at any point (Napoleon has made too many enemies and has occupied what the leaders consider their sphere of influence.). Worse of all is Napoleons mere nature, his drive for power means he just won't be able to resist the conflict and won't give up till everymen man in France has been used up as cannon fodder. Welcome to the Board by the way.

Regards Bobbis
 
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