My TL idea: No Sponsorship Scandal in Canada

2004 Canadian election:
Paul Martin-Liberal: 181+13 42.04%
Stephen Harper-Conservative: 68-4 27.02%
Gilles Duceppe-BQ: 43+10 10.49%
Jack Layton-NDP: 15+1 14.89%

After years as PM with a majority and Kelowna Accord as one achievement, Martin retires and Ignatieff becomes leader. In the 2008 election, with a more moderate Tory leader, voter fatigue, and recession, a shock result happens.

2008 Canadian election:
Michael Ignatieff-Liberal: 131-50 34.42%
Peter MacKay-Conservative: 104+36 33.44%
Gilles Duceppe-BQ: 49+6 10.09%
Jack Layton-NDP: 23+7 16.68%

The minority lasts just over a year, and a December 2009 election occurs. Voters choose change, but unlike in many countries, don't give it much of a mandate at all.

2009 Canadian election:
Peter MacKay-Conservative:116+12 35.35%
Michael Ignatieff-Liberal: 115-16 31.91%
Gilles Duceppe-BQ: 50+1 10.29%
Jack Layton-NDP: 26+3 17.00%

That is all in elections so far. Is no Sponsorship Scandal at all a realistic PoD or would just a delay in revelation create these results just as well? Or maybe no ban on big donations or whatever happened would be better at producing a Liberal majority bin 2004? Is this plausible? What do you think?
 
A sponsorship POD would be in 1996, when the fund in question was created. If Martin is a bit less impatient then Chretien would retire in 2000 and Martin replaces him. Smoother transition doesn't mean much for Liberal leadership competitiveness because the party apparatus is entirely controlled by Martinets, a process IOTL begun almost immediately after the 1997 election. If the Tories lose official party status in 2000, which seems almost certain with Martin as PM, then their donors will kill them and force a merger. Harper is still the logical choice for a merged party's leadership. Iggy would never return to Canada ITTL, since that only happened because of Martin's OTL failure. If Harper loses 2004 then so long as he makes respectable gains he can have a rematch.
 
A sponsorship POD would be in 1996, when the fund in question was created. If Martin is a bit less impatient then Chretien would retire in 2000 and Martin replaces him. Smoother transition doesn't mean much for Liberal leadership competitiveness because the party apparatus is entirely controlled by Martinets, a process IOTL begun almost immediately after the 1997 election. If the Tories lose official party status in 2000, which seems almost certain with Martin as PM, then their donors will kill them and force a merger. Harper is still the logical choice for a merged party's leadership. Iggy would never return to Canada ITTL, since that only happened because of Martin's OTL failure. If Harper loses 2004 then so long as he makes respectable gains he can have a rematch.

Why would no Sponsorship scandal make Martin PM in 2000?
 
Martin being less impatient could be a butterfly. There's nothing preordained about Martinets scheming in a hotel right next to the policy convention and Martin running down an escalator when being pursued by a media horde.
 
Martin being less impatient could be a butterfly. There's nothing preordained about Martinets scheming in a hotel right next to the policy convention and Martin running down an escalator when being pursued by a media horde.

But we could easily say, and let's do, that until 2004 things go basically as IOTL.
 
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