My theory regarding if the American Revolution fails

My point is that by 1776, the genie is out of the bottle, no? You have decades of joint-colonial action, plus people from the colonies traveling to universities in other colonies, as opposed to back across the water...

By 1776 you have anout a decade of joint colonial action, and only half of that was consistent. Several colonies were not represented in the Stamp Act Congress, I believe.

And what you're arguing isn't that they just have some semblance of American identity, but that identity is so strong that they will insist on political unification to the extent they are willing to risk another destructuve war over it even if their other concerns are met. I just don't see it. If they are moving towards responsible government, colonial level identity is encouraged, and divisions between the states are flagged, I just don't see the push being that strong.
 
Well that's certainly true. However, I think that if England waits, it will become very, very hard. The population of Louisiane is already anti English, however by the very early 1800s, the population of the already anti English Francophone population is going to double especially in New Orleans this also includes further natural population growth in Acadiana and other areas that are already anti English. This thus becomes increasingly a situation where it is difficult and dangerous to capture, not to mention in the 1820s, thousands of Irish begin to arrive in New Orleans and spread outward through the area further increasing the already dominant Catholic super majority and anti English sentiment. We know this large Irish population existed then via the building and death toll of the Carondelet and New Basin canals.

If the British attack early then perhaps they take it easily, but if they wait till the 1800s, I do not believe they take it.

The population is not THAT big, the Brits can blockade the coast and the Mississippi, and send a manifest destiny-believing army from a population of millions on the same continent.
 
If not New Orleans, England could take everything North of it.

With the 13 Colonies, and added would the Loyalist, the Empire would hammer Spain. Sure, it might be bloody, but the United Kingdom would come up on top in this.

Again, doesn't this just make conquest of New Orleans even more likely longer term? I accept the difficulties of land supply lines from South Carolina, but from a fully settled Arkansas and everything North? With a population that needs constant access down the Great River to the sea? It would be a highly populist war among the colonists.
 
The population is not THAT big, the Brits can blockade the coast and the Mississippi, and send a manifest destiny-believing army from a population of millions on the same continent.

Pre 1800 yes, by 1810, you have massive amounts of Haitian migrants in Nouvelle Orléans. This gets to the point that the city by 1830 in less than a few decades is larger than almost any city on the East coast. Also, why would all these manifest destiny people just go automatically and how do they just automatically defeat the Spanish army?
 
I like to defend Spain, but the reality is that OTL, they were sinking and sinking fast. Thinking they would be able to hold on to Louisiane is very flawed thinking. Certainly, if things broke different in Spain, they might be sturdier, but that requires a whole other POD aside from the AR. Any Spain remotely resembling OTL is in no way, shape or form a match for Britain. The best Spain can hope for is to have everyone else remain lackadaisical for 50 or more years, and Nap to be stillborn.

Post French and Indian War, France has given up on North America. Nap had a very temporary dream of reconquering it, but came out of his stupor very quickly and dumped it. You need yet another major POD to get France getting back involved. True that they almost ASB got involved in the AR, so it is possible, but how likely is it for another almost ASB set of circumstances to align so well?
 
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