My Theory for Ottoman Victory in the Great war concerning Oil

[Incanian]

Before the 1908 Young Turk revolution, Cars, and the tools to make them were banned, only exclusively for the Sultans, and other officials.
This ended after the Young Turk Revolution, in which all restrictions to make cars were finally lifted. Ottoman entrepreneurs went straight to trying to build the new marvels of technology in the empire. However, the roads weren't paved, gas stations and garages didn’t exist, for the most part, no highway code, and arguments on which side should Ottomans drive.

In 1913 there were 1 million automobiles in America, and in the Ottoman Empire, only 500, and 250 in Istanbul. Regardless, the Ottomans had only introduced cars 6 years before the war.

If the Ottomans win, they take all the British oil in Kuwait, and with the money received from winning the war, the Ottomans will have the money to invest into building those roads, and harvesting that oil. Since the demand for cars in the empire will be extremely high, the need for oil will also grow, and the Ottomans will seek oil in their own empire.

The Ottomans before that though will have the huge amount of oil in Kuwait, and Persian oil fields, and since they reversed the 1878 treaty, and taking land in the Caucasus, they will have Caucasian oil as well,

Is there anything wrong with this? If so, please tell me, I'd love to hear your opinions.

 

[Dorknought]

The Ottomans will owe Germany £250,000,000 - probably more. This will mean economic servitude for the Ottoman Empire.

 

[Nivek]

The Ottomans will owe Germany £250,000,000 - probably more. This will mean economic servitude for the Ottoman Empire.

Sources that number? That is a very excat figure

 

[Incanian]

The Ottomans will owe Germany £250,000,000 - probably more. This will mean economic servitude for the Ottoman Empire.

250 Million? From what exactly? Besides, Does Germany really need it? It's got the new territory from France, and all the client states from Russia in Breske-Litovsk, AND MittelAfrika seems like they are the worlds strongest economy.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Before the 1908 Young Turk revolution, Cars, and the tools to make them were banned, only exclusively for the Sultans, and other officials.
This ended after the Young Turk Revolution, in which all restrictions to make cars were finally lifted. Ottoman entrepreneurs went straight to trying to build the new marvels of technology in the empire. However, the roads weren't paved, gas stations and garages didn’t exist, for the most part, no highway code, and arguments on which side should Ottomans drive.

In 1913 there were 1 million automobiles in America, and in the Ottoman Empire, only 500, and 250 in Istanbul. Regardless, the Ottomans had only introduced cars 6 years before the war.

If the Ottomans win, they take all the British oil in Kuwait, and with the money received from winning the war, the Ottomans will have the money to invest into building those roads, and harvesting that oil. Since the demand for cars in the empire will be extremely high, the need for oil will also grow, and the Ottomans will seek oil in their own empire.

The Ottomans before that though will have the huge amount of oil in Kuwait, and Persian oil fields, and since they reversed the 1878 treaty, and taking land in the Caucasus, they will have Caucasian oil as well,

Is there anything wrong with this? If so, please tell me, I'd love to hear your opinions.

Yes, yes there is.

Demand for cars is NOT going to suddenly skyrocket, nor will their production, for a variety of reasons. For the former, while the state itself might have much more (potential) wealth and be on solid financial footing, your average subject hasen't seen a sudden skyrocketing of their income nor a sudden increase in their need to travel mid-level distances. How on earth are they going to afford the massive initial expense of buying a car, or want to make such a purchase a priority with any extra income they do get? Like you pointed out, there's not alot of infastructure to support them (particularly outside the major urban centers) even if petrol is dirt cheap: more likely additional consumer spending is going to go towards move towards a market economy in lighter goods like cloths, modernizing farming equipment, home appliances, ect.

As for production, automobiles are a tertiary product as the long end of a heavy and specialized industrial supply chain; the Empire hasen't industrialized enough yet to have the critical mass of, for example, steel production for the frames or the specialized facilities to build engines. What heavy industry they do have is far more likely to get sucked up into either increasing itself (via production of more machinery), farming equipment, and in producing more refining capacity for their raw oil and railway stock to better connect the different parts of the Empire on satellite lines from the main German-investment lines (Like the Berlin-Baghdad railway... which could very well become the Berlin-Basra railway)

Basically, Ottoman oil is far more likely to flow out of the country to get them to a higher stage of capitalization/modernization and support an automotive revolution elsewhere rather than trigger an immediate auto-boom domestically.

 

[marathag]

n 1913 there were 1 million automobiles in America, and in the Ottoman Empire, only 500, and 250 in Istanbul. Regardless, the Ottomans had only introduced cars 6 years before the war.

From a 1913 annual, I got 1 million cars in the USA from just the top 10 ten States, with Missouri as #11 with 50k registered, which is less than total number of active autos in the Nation, with around 300k built new for 1913, up from around 200k for 1912

If the Ottomans win, they take all the British oil in Kuwait

There's not much to take at this time. The Persian fields were not doing much, and were looking in Iraq. Nothing yet discovered in the Gulf States. In 1913, most of British Oil came from the Indo-Burma Petroleum Company, from Assam. The refinery complex at Abadan for the Anglo-Persian Oil Company was being built that year.

Production in 1000T for 1913

USA 34,000
Russia 9,200
Mexico 3,800
Romania 1,800
British India 1,200
Austria-Hungary 1,100
Other countries 2,900

 

[Incanian]

Yes, yes there is.

Demand for cars is NOT going to suddenly skyrocket, nor will their production, for a variety of reasons. For the former, while the state itself might have much more (potential) wealth and be on solid financial footing, your average subject hasen't seen a sudden skyrocketing of their income nor a sudden increase in their need to travel mid-level distances. How on earth are they going to afford the massive initial expense of buying a car, or want to make such a purchase a priority with any extra income they do get? Like you pointed out, there's not alot of infastructure to support them (particularly outside the major urban centers) even if petrol is dirt cheap: more likely additional consumer spending is going to go towards move towards a market economy in lighter goods like cloths, modernizing farming equipment, home appliances, ect.

As for production, automobiles are a tertiary product as the long end of a heavy and specialized industrial supply chain; the Empire hasen't industrialized enough yet to have the critical mass of, for example, steel production for the frames or the specialized facilities to build engines. What heavy industry they do have is far more likely to get sucked up into either increasing itself (via production of more machinery), farming equipment, and in producing more refining capacity for their raw oil and railway stock to better connect the different parts of the Empire on satellite lines from the main German-investment lines (Like the Berlin-Baghdad railway... which could very well become the Berlin-Basra railway)

Basically, Ottoman oil is far more likely to flow out of the country to get them to a higher stage of capitalization/modernization and support an automotive revolution elsewhere rather than trigger an immediate auto-boom domestically.

Well, a sudden increase of the Ottoman income mainly could come from the money from new trade, and working population coming back after the great war. During the young Turks reign, there were record-breaking harvests in the empire, and lifting trade restrictions helped the empire in getting foreign ideas into the nation. And with new territory, it's likely that will increase, along with new jobs in new fields, such as the Baghdad-Berlin railroad.

The Turkish media during the Automobile rage at the time was a large pop cultural phenomena like driving technology was fascinating, and the status in society of getting such a vehicle is something good to get. And, while cars will only be located in locations such as Constantinople, and highly industrialized cities, under the Young Turks, the economy could be used to build such roads to promote the purchase of such vehicles. Besides, we all know Cars are a good purchase for convenience, one much more useful than a carriage, or horse.

The Young Turks after the war and growth in the economy will begin a hardline industrialization policy on the rest of the empire, which cars could be a product of.

I agree the consumer spending will go to cloth, modern farming equipment, and home appliances, but once the average Ottoman starts making more money due to things like this, in due time, they will have enough money to buy a car.

There could be farming equipment, such as tractors becoming widespread in the empires agrarian business.

When would cars become popularly used in the empire post war?

 

[Dorknought]

250 Million? From what exactly? Besides, Does Germany really need it? It's got the new territory from France, and all the client states from Russia in Breske-Litovsk, AND MittelAfrika seems like they are the worlds strongest economy.

The Germans bankrolled the Ottoman war effort through gold and credit. They will be wanting it paid back and with Turk debt running at 400-500% GDP the Turks will just be handing over resources to Germany for generations.

 

[marathag]

There could be farming equipment, such as tractors becoming widespread in the empires agrarian business.

When would cars become popularly used in the empire post war?

OTL Henry Ford got rights to open an assembly plant in 1928, but that was revoked by Kermal in 1934. Next plant was for building Jeeps under license, but a tractor plant was opened the year before in 1953

 

[Anchises]

The Germans bankrolled the Ottoman war effort through gold and credit. They will be wanting it paid back and with Turk debt running at 400-500% GDP the Turks will just be handing over resources to Germany for generations.

If the Ottoman debts are this high at the end of the war they are basically dependent on Germany for the 20th century.

There would probably agreements where the Ottomans have to prefer German products and where the Reich gets a certain share of all new oilfields.

 

[Dorknought]

The war cost 6 times more than expected at about 3m lira per month. Part of the terms for the August 1914 Turko-German Alliance was a 5m lira loan (100m gold marks) at 6% interest from the Germans which was supplied in October 1914. Even this wasn't enough for the Turks to declare war and Souchon took it apon himself to provoke the Russians, with tacit approval of the War Minister, by having the navy attack the Russians at the end of the month to cement the alliance. The economic measures being imposed saw the resignation of the Finance Minister on November 2nd 1914. A further 80m gold marks were supplied in April 1915 by which stage the Turks had also run up 150m gold marks in credit with German arms manufacturers. In addition to money printing (qualitative easing) and 50m lira worth of requisitions, the Ottomans also borrowed a total of 235m lira from Germany (about 4 billion gold marks). The resilience of Turks was quite impressive. For GB the war doubled prices, France they tripled and Germany quadrupled before collapse. Turkish prices went up 18 fold. By 1918 GDP had declined 40% and the cost of living had risen by 2000% since 1914, impoverishing anyone on a fixed salary. Even if Germany had won the war, Turkey would have been reduced to economic servitude to pay back these massive debts.

 

[apollo11]

tertiary

Aren't they secondary products? Not trying to be pedantic just get clarification of terms.

 

[Incanian]

The Germans bankrolled the Ottoman war effort through gold and credit. They will be wanting it paid back and with Turk debt running at 400-500% GDP the Turks will just be handing over resources to Germany for generations.

I saw before the war, the Ottoman Economy was stabilizing, and gaining traction after the Young Turk revolution, due to lifting restrictions. I saw the Ottoman economy was at around 25.3 billion, and the average citizen made 1,100h and while poor compared to nations like Russia, and Britan, the victory resulting in an increase in money from various reparations, and a return of the civilian population to contributing to the growth of the overall return of stability of the economy will happen. And since the Ottomans will now be able to modernize, and this modernization results in better farming equipment increased urbanization, the dismantlement of Ottoman external stress from Russia, and Britan, the Ottomans can finally push all efforts on self growth, and internal progress. To promote this, they could give more money to people who work on less agrarian projects, and instead railway projects, or industrial projects, that would draw more people to cities like Aleppo, Damascus, Constantinople, Damascus, Baghdad, Ankara etc. With a focus on internal progress, I personally don't see the Debt to Germany to make the Ottomans indentured to the Germans for generations.

 

[Nivek]

I saw before the war, the Ottoman Economy was stabilizing, and gaining traction after the Young Turk revolution, due to lifting restrictions. I saw the Ottoman economy was at around 25.3 billion, and the average citizen made 1,100h and while poor compared to nations like Russia, and Britan, the victory resulting in an increase in money from various reparations, and a return of the civilian population to contributing to the growth of the overall return of stability of the economy will happen. And since the Ottomans will now be able to modernize, and this modernization results in better farming equipment increased urbanization, the dismantlement of Ottoman external stress from Russia, and Britan, the Ottomans can finally push all efforts on self growth, and internal progress. To promote this, they could give more money to people who work on less agrarian projects, and instead railway projects, or industrial projects, that would draw more people to cities like Aleppo, Damascus, Constantinople, Damascus, Baghdad, Ankara etc. With a focus on internal progress, I personally don't see the Debt to Germany to make the Ottomans indentured to the Germans for generations.

For a few years but not worse the britain with the US, just the ottomans will have to coordinate the sovereign debt service for a while...but they will get money from reparations and whatever they got the conquered caucasian territories(specially Baku), plus when middle east oil come online the pipelines to germany will pay for it.

Other..i expect Ottoman economies full of german subsidiaries for a while till they make their own local versions.

 

[Incanian]

For a few years but not worse the britain with the US, just the ottomans will have to coordinate the sovereign debt service for a while...but they will get money from reparations and whatever they got the conquered caucasian territories(specially Baku), plus when middle east oil come online the pipelines to germany will pay for it.

Other..i expect Ottoman economies full of german subsidiaries for a while till they make their own local versions.

The Ottomans made it very clear they wanted to reverse the 1878 treaty of Berlin and restore Kars, Ardahan, and Batum to Ottoman rule. The oil from the Caucasus alone is a ton of money they could pay the Germans back. I don't see the Germans being the most strict people on the Ottomans, both considering they were belligerents and friends, and the fact the Germans are now the world power, and might not see Ottoman reparations as the neediest thing to them.

In my opinion, the Ottomans could repay German debts if the Young Turks put all efforts to internal industrialization, modernization, and infastructure development. With a British empire that's been ripped limb from limb and the Russian Empire under the Tsar unable to do anything, the Ottomans don't need a very large army and can send men home to work for the Empire. And by the time a war does come to the empire a Second Great War, or a war the Ottomans want to fund or take involvement in, the population would have grown by millions, to send men, and to have the industrial strength of its former days.

 

[Dorknought]

What’s being suggested is only plausible from a period of peace, not from Turkey being on the winning side from a Great War. Japan didn’t get an indemnity from the RussoJapanese war. Inflows of cash can also be a problem for broken economies like Turkeys suffering from inflation. Pre WW1 all the Great Powers were urging the CUP to not get involved in alliances or wars.

 

[kernals12]

Before the 1908 Young Turk revolution, Cars, and the tools to make them were banned, only exclusively for the Sultans, and other officials.
This ended after the Young Turk Revolution, in which all restrictions to make cars were finally lifted. Ottoman entrepreneurs went straight to trying to build the new marvels of technology in the empire. However, the roads weren't paved, gas stations and garages didn’t exist, for the most part, no highway code, and arguments on which side should Ottomans drive.

In 1913 there were 1 million automobiles in America, and in the Ottoman Empire, only 500, and 250 in Istanbul. Regardless, the Ottomans had only introduced cars 6 years before the war.

If the Ottomans win, they take all the British oil in Kuwait, and with the money received from winning the war, the Ottomans will have the money to invest into building those roads, and harvesting that oil. Since the demand for cars in the empire will be extremely high, the need for oil will also grow, and the Ottomans will seek oil in their own empire.

The Ottomans before that though will have the huge amount of oil in Kuwait, and Persian oil fields, and since they reversed the 1878 treaty, and taking land in the Caucasus, they will have Caucasian oil as well,

Is there anything wrong with this? If so, please tell me, I'd love to hear your opinions.

I don't believe oil was discovered in Kuwait until the 1930s

 

[Incanian]

I don't believe oil was discovered in Kuwait until the 1930s

Sorry, I meant the Ottomans, while annexing Kuwait, would seize the majority of Persian oil fields in Persia, transferred from British to Ottoman hands.

 

[Dorknought]

I’ve given real world numbers on Turkeys Debt issues, the magnitude of that debt and the impact that had. I won’t put up with being called racist!

 

[kernals12]

Sorry, I meant the Ottomans, while annexing Kuwait, would seize the majority of Persian oil fields in Persia, transferred from British to Ottoman hands.

Ok, that makes sense.