Since we haven't had one of these in a while, I thought it would be fun to shake things up a bit.
It is common knowledge on this forum that Germany after the Fall of France lacked the necessary airpower, amphibious and logistical capability to overcome British defenses in 1940 for a successful invasion of the British Isles. In view of this, I propose a start date of no earlier than the summer of 1945 to allow for adequate preparation. In the meantime, the OKW will take the following steps differently from OTL:
1. Destruction of the BEF at Dunkirk.
2. To keep the US out of the war and minimize its support for Britain as much as possible, no Battle of Britain (until 1945 of course) and no Battle of the Atlantic. The Luftwaffe pulls back to the defensive position it took after the OTL Battle of Britain and the U-boats stay in port. Japan will also be encouraged to avoid war with the US and will be told firmly that there is no possibility of German support if does attack the US. On the other hand, a strike south against the British, French, and Dutch empires while leaving the US alone is very much encouraged.
3. Maintenance of friendly relations with the Soviet Union, including acceptance of Stalin's offers of increased economic ties and his proposal for Soviet entry into the Axis alliance.
4. A Mediterranean strategy. Given the logistical problems pointed out in this thread, this will happen in two phases. In the first phase, lasting from the summer of 1940 to the summer of 1941 the Axis will adopt a defensive posture in North Africa. Using the aircraft saved from no BoB and no Barbarossa, control of the air over the area will be established and port capacity increased, together with the construction of a rail line to alleviate the supply problems which plagued Rommel in OTL. Malta is also neutralized and either starved into surrender or taken in the spring/summer of 1941. In the summer of 1941, Panzergruppe Afrika strikes east into Egypt to the Suez Canal. Once reached, it pauses there for as long as necessary to refurbish the Egyptian ports, and then continues into the Middle East with the ultimate goal of reaching the oil fields around late 1942-early 43. The rest of the Heer with the exception of those forces focusing on amphibious training and preparation digs in on the Soviet border just to make sure the STAVKA doesn't get any funny ideas and saves its strength.
5. Priority given to the Luftwaffe and in particular anti-shipping training and weaponry, such as the Fritz X guided bomb. With five years to prepare and experience gained from operations in the Mediterranean, the LW should be able to become reasonably proficient in anti-shipping operations by 1945. And by then Germany would be outproducing Britain in aircraft production considerably. Even in OTL, German aircraft production in 1944 (according to the Wikipedia article on WW2 aircraft production) was 40,593 (Murray in Strategy for Defeat on page 190 gives a slightly lower figure of 36,000) compared to Britain's 26,461, and the German total would have been considerably higher had it not been for the strategic bombing, which would have been far less severe without the USAAF. Again according to Murray on page 190 "Unhindered by Allied bombing, German production would have risen far higher and far faster. The target of 80,000-plus aircraft in production for 1945 gives an indication of the direction in which Milch and his planners were pushing." The oil for the expanded LW will come from increased purchases from the SU, the oil which isn't being expended on the Eastern Front, increased synthetic production (which could probably be done with a cut to ammunition production because of no Eastern Front) and the undamaged Ploesti, as going after both the synthetic plants and Ploesti was a USAAF idea. Also, according to the Wikipedia article on the ME 262's Jumo 004 engine, the first 004A version which was far more reliable than the eventual 004B version and was tested in late 1940 "used scarce raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, and molybdenum in quantities which were unacceptable in production." Perhaps with less AFV production the 004A could be used in substantial quantities and the ME 262 introduced in 1943 or so.
Have at it.
It is common knowledge on this forum that Germany after the Fall of France lacked the necessary airpower, amphibious and logistical capability to overcome British defenses in 1940 for a successful invasion of the British Isles. In view of this, I propose a start date of no earlier than the summer of 1945 to allow for adequate preparation. In the meantime, the OKW will take the following steps differently from OTL:
1. Destruction of the BEF at Dunkirk.
2. To keep the US out of the war and minimize its support for Britain as much as possible, no Battle of Britain (until 1945 of course) and no Battle of the Atlantic. The Luftwaffe pulls back to the defensive position it took after the OTL Battle of Britain and the U-boats stay in port. Japan will also be encouraged to avoid war with the US and will be told firmly that there is no possibility of German support if does attack the US. On the other hand, a strike south against the British, French, and Dutch empires while leaving the US alone is very much encouraged.
3. Maintenance of friendly relations with the Soviet Union, including acceptance of Stalin's offers of increased economic ties and his proposal for Soviet entry into the Axis alliance.
4. A Mediterranean strategy. Given the logistical problems pointed out in this thread, this will happen in two phases. In the first phase, lasting from the summer of 1940 to the summer of 1941 the Axis will adopt a defensive posture in North Africa. Using the aircraft saved from no BoB and no Barbarossa, control of the air over the area will be established and port capacity increased, together with the construction of a rail line to alleviate the supply problems which plagued Rommel in OTL. Malta is also neutralized and either starved into surrender or taken in the spring/summer of 1941. In the summer of 1941, Panzergruppe Afrika strikes east into Egypt to the Suez Canal. Once reached, it pauses there for as long as necessary to refurbish the Egyptian ports, and then continues into the Middle East with the ultimate goal of reaching the oil fields around late 1942-early 43. The rest of the Heer with the exception of those forces focusing on amphibious training and preparation digs in on the Soviet border just to make sure the STAVKA doesn't get any funny ideas and saves its strength.
5. Priority given to the Luftwaffe and in particular anti-shipping training and weaponry, such as the Fritz X guided bomb. With five years to prepare and experience gained from operations in the Mediterranean, the LW should be able to become reasonably proficient in anti-shipping operations by 1945. And by then Germany would be outproducing Britain in aircraft production considerably. Even in OTL, German aircraft production in 1944 (according to the Wikipedia article on WW2 aircraft production) was 40,593 (Murray in Strategy for Defeat on page 190 gives a slightly lower figure of 36,000) compared to Britain's 26,461, and the German total would have been considerably higher had it not been for the strategic bombing, which would have been far less severe without the USAAF. Again according to Murray on page 190 "Unhindered by Allied bombing, German production would have risen far higher and far faster. The target of 80,000-plus aircraft in production for 1945 gives an indication of the direction in which Milch and his planners were pushing." The oil for the expanded LW will come from increased purchases from the SU, the oil which isn't being expended on the Eastern Front, increased synthetic production (which could probably be done with a cut to ammunition production because of no Eastern Front) and the undamaged Ploesti, as going after both the synthetic plants and Ploesti was a USAAF idea. Also, according to the Wikipedia article on the ME 262's Jumo 004 engine, the first 004A version which was far more reliable than the eventual 004B version and was tested in late 1940 "used scarce raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, and molybdenum in quantities which were unacceptable in production." Perhaps with less AFV production the 004A could be used in substantial quantities and the ME 262 introduced in 1943 or so.
Have at it.