My little Tsar: Balkan is Bloody TL

tn_Stjepan_Zanovic_kao_lazni_Scepan_Mali_fotografija_se_moze_naci_u_stivu_Antun_Conte_Zanovic.jpg
(Tsar Šćepan Mali)

Tsar Šćepan Mali (eng. Stephen the Little) was historical anomaly in bleak and bloody history of small Montenegro. He was like a comet, bright and fascinating but short-lasting. He was first mention in year 1766, as self styled doctor, and two years later, in 1768, he was proclaimed as Tsar Šćepan Mali. With assassination of Tsar Peter III of Russia, rumors sparked in the eastern Europe that he somehow survived and that he is hiding in small Montenegro. Šćepan took this opportunity to convince the disunited tribes that he, indeed is Tsar and quickly he was made Imperatorof Montenegro and little Montenegro, for was short six years was empire. He was shown as authoritarian ruler but very competent, uniting tribal and ultratraditionalist society and for brief time, transforming it to modern Sparta.
This timeline asks a question, what if Šćepan Mali survived assassination of 1773,and ruled till old age?
 
View attachment 385757 (Tsar Šćepan Mali)

Tsar Šćepan Mali (eng. Stephen the Little) was historical anomaly in bleak and bloody history of small Montenegro. He was like a comet, bright and fascinating but short-lasting. He was first mention in year 1766, as self styled doctor, and two years later, in 1768, he was proclaimed as Tsar Šćepan Mali. With assassination of Tsar Peter III of Russia, rumors sparked in the eastern Europe that he somehow survived and that he is hiding in small Montenegro. Šćepan took this opportunity to convince the disunited tribes that he, indeed is Tsar and quickly he was made Imperatorof Montenegro and little Montenegro, for was short six years was empire. He was shown as authoritarian ruler but very competent, uniting tribal and ultratraditionalist society and for brief time, transforming it to modern Sparta.
This timeline asks a question, what if Šćepan Mali survived assassination of 1773,and ruled till old age?

The main chance for his to make any serious change in OTL would to attract interest of the Russians who were at that time operating on the Med, Ionian and Aegean Seas and in Greece (Russo-Turkish War of 1768–1774) trying to ignite the Greek uprising against the Ottomans.

1024px-Map_of_the_Russo-Turkish_War_%281768%E2%80%931774%29_and_Orlov_Revolt_%281770%29.svg.png


A reliable land base would be a factor in his favor and bellicose reputation of the Montenegrians could be another one.

However, few things had been against him. 1st, Catherine II (and as a result Alexei Orlov, "the theater commander") had fixation on Greece with a far reaching idea of recreating "Byzantine Empire" for Catherine's grandson, Constantine. Keeping this in mind, Montenegro was slightly too far to the North to be of an immediate strategic interest. 2nd, his claim to be Peter III made cooperation politically unfeasible for the Russian commanders (especially for Alexei Orlov who, besides being one of the leaders of the coup, had been "credited" with personally participating in the assassination of Peter III).

So, for him benefiting from the situation, we have to change few things. 1st, Catherine should be more open-minded about her goals. The Greeks could be enthusiastic but during the uprising they proved to be not very impressive soldiers. So if her goal was just create and maintain a persistent problem in Ottomans' rear (end) then Montenegro could become a 2nd best option which could be used even during the Greek uprising. This would definitely keep the Albanians busy. Of course, there are conditions for this plan to work. 1st, Šćepan's claim about his "true identity" should be ignored by the Russians and he himself would have to play it down; not very convenient but quite possible. 2nd, MUCH more difficult because it is related to personality of Alexei Orlov. He was an impressive and charismatic figure, a gifted statesman and his personal willpower had been critical in a decision to fight the Ottoman fleet at Chesma. However, he was not a capable or even experienced military commander and quite sybaritic. Plus, the whole Russian military force was simply inadequate.

So, if we assume (a) that Catherine's "Greek Plan" involves Montenegro at least as a distraction factor (for the Albanians) AND (b) she sends more troops (few thousands more) AND (c) there is a capable commander of the land forces (under Orlov's nominal command) then Montenegro can be turned into a meaningful theater of operations with a possible expansion of Šćepan's rule to at least part of Serbia. Or perhaps he could capture Dubrovnik (at that time Ottoman vassal).
 
The main chance for his to make any serious change in OTL would to attract interest of the Russians who were at that time operating on the Med, Ionian and Aegean Seas and in Greece (Russo-Turkish War of 1768–1774) trying to ignite the Greek uprising against the Ottomans.

1024px-Map_of_the_Russo-Turkish_War_%281768%E2%80%931774%29_and_Orlov_Revolt_%281770%29.svg.png


A reliable land base would be a factor in his favor and bellicose reputation of the Montenegrians could be another one.

However, few things had been against him. 1st, Catherine II (and as a result Alexei Orlov, "the theater commander") had fixation on Greece with a far reaching idea of recreating "Byzantine Empire" for Catherine's grandson, Constantine. Keeping this in mind, Montenegro was slightly too far to the North to be of an immediate strategic interest. 2nd, his claim to be Peter III made cooperation politically unfeasible for the Russian commanders (especially for Alexei Orlov who, besides being one of the leaders of the coup, had been "credited" with personally participating in the assassination of Peter III).

So, for him benefiting from the situation, we have to change few things. 1st, Catherine should be more open-minded about her goals. The Greeks could be enthusiastic but during the uprising they proved to be not very impressive soldiers. So if her goal was just create and maintain a persistent problem in Ottomans' rear (end) then Montenegro could become a 2nd best option which could be used even during the Greek uprising. This would definitely keep the Albanians busy. Of course, there are conditions for this plan to work. 1st, Šćepan's claim about his "true identity" should be ignored by the Russians and he himself would have to play it down; not very convenient but quite possible. 2nd, MUCH more difficult because it is related to personality of Alexei Orlov. He was an impressive and charismatic figure, a gifted statesman and his personal willpower had been critical in a decision to fight the Ottoman fleet at Chesma. However, he was not a capable or even experienced military commander and quite sybaritic. Plus, the whole Russian military force was simply inadequate.

So, if we assume (a) that Catherine's "Greek Plan" involves Montenegro at least as a distraction factor (for the Albanians) AND (b) she sends more troops (few thousands more) AND (c) there is a capable commander of the land forces (under Orlov's nominal command) then Montenegro can be turned into a meaningful theater of operations with a possible expansion of Šćepan's rule to at least part of Serbia. Or perhaps he could capture Dubrovnik (at that time Ottoman vassal).
I appreciate your detailed analysis but PoD is in 1773, and Greek war is almost over. Russia supported Šćepan while he stop pretending he is Tsar Peter III.
My idea is for use Šćepan charisma and popularity to start large Orthodox revolution in Ottomans just in the wake of Napoleonic wars.
 
I appreciate your detailed analysis but PoD is in 1773, and Greek war is almost over. Russia supported Šćepan while he stop pretending he is Tsar Peter III.
My idea is for use Šćepan charisma and popularity to start large Orthodox revolution in Ottomans just in the wake of Napoleonic wars.

I understand, but the only power which was, for a while, close and interested in Orthodox religion had been Russians during the 1st and 2nd Mediterranean expeditions. With the things done properly, your goal could be achieved at least up to a certain degree, especially if Šćepan's activities are coordinated by time with 2 Russian-Ottoman wars of that period: creation of his state (if he is successful enough) could be negotiated as a part of a general peace. For the major independent revolution (or whatever) his resources would not be enough. Charisma and popularity are simply not good enough against the firearms.
 
I understand, but the only power which was, for a while, close and interested in Orthodox religion had been Russians during the 1st and 2nd Mediterranean expeditions. With the things done properly, your goal could be achieved at least up to a certain degree, especially if Šćepan's activities are coordinated by time with 2 Russian-Ottoman wars of that period: creation of his state (if he is successful enough) could be negotiated as a part of a general peace. For the major independent revolution (or whatever) his resources would not be enough. Charisma and popularity are simply not good enough against the firearms.
He will team up with Venetians, to supply his guerilla solders with modern weapons to attack Ottoman merchant caravans in the area, to weaken the Turkish hold in Bosnia.
 
He will team up with Venetians, to supply his guerilla solders with modern weapons to attack Ottoman merchant caravans in the area, to weaken the Turkish hold in Bosnia.

On its own, he would be too weak to last for a long time or at least to last outside the tiny Montenegro. Looting caravans would led him nowhere and, if he becomes too annoying, the Ottomans can always use the Albanians (as they did against the revolting Greeks). He needed some Great Power as an ally that can force the Ottomans to recognize him and his state as a part of a general peace.
 
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