This is my first attempt at timeline. It's somewhat of a rough draft, and some aspects may changed in the future.
The premise of this timeline is based on two historical events. First, President Carter letting the former Shah of Iran into the United States for medical treatment in 1979. This, naturally, angered the new government of Iran even more, which led to the Iran Hostage Crisis.
The second refers to the primary contest between Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter. While the Iran Hostage Crisis was a major factor in Carter loosing to Reagan in 1980, it also was a major factor in him getting to face Reagan. Before the crisis, Kennedy was beating him by 2-to-1. Without the boost from the crisis he got (basically the same kind of boost Bush got from 9/11, except smaller), he would have had a much harder time fending off Kennedy.
This will start as an American Political timeline, but will expand its focus in future updates.
"Dear Mr. Rockefeller,
I have heard the request that you, along with Mr. Kissenger, have given to my administartion to let the former Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlevi, into the United States for medical asylum. The United States government does appriciate all of the help that Mr. Pahlevi has given to the United States. And we do sympathize with the pleight the former Shah is currently going through.
That said, I'm afraid that I must deny your request. We believe that letting the Shah in would only furthur tensions between the United States and the new government of Iran. Doing so could impare our standing in the Middle East, which is a risk the United States is not willing to take. Officials at our embassy in Tehran have also indicated that they are opposed to this, and that there is a strong possibility that their diplomats will be put in danger. You must realize that we cannot allow this.
I do respect the years of experience you have, and the advice that you have to give is most appriciated. But it would be far too much of a risk to let the Shah into the United States at this time. I would recommend that he seek asylum somewhere else, possibly one of the Middle Eastern countries who were friendly to his regime.
Sincerly,
Jimmy Carter
-Letter from Former President Carter to David Rockefeller (identical copy also sent to Henry Kissenger) 10/24/1979
"Do you approve of the job Jimmy Carter has done as President?
APPROVE: 16%
DISAPPROVE: 79%
UNSURE: 5%
"In a hypothetical primary matchup b, who would you vote for? (Registared Democrats surveyed only)
TED KENNEDY: 61%
JIMMY CARTER: 24%
UNDECIDED: 15%
In a hypothetical general election line-up between Governor Reagan and President Carter, who would you vote for?
RONALD REAGAN: 64%
JIMMY CARTER: 23%
UNDECIDED: 13%
In a hypothetical general election between Senator Kennedy and Governor Reagan, who would you vote for?
RONALD REAGAN: 54%
TED KENNEDY: 42%
UNDECIDED: 4%
- Gallup polling survey, 9/9/1979
ROGER MUDD: Why do you want to become the next President of the United States?
TED KENNEDY: Well, I'm — were I to make the announcement and to run, the reasons I would run is because I have a great belief in this country. That it is — there's more natural resources than any nation in the world; the greatest education population in the world; the greatest technology of any country in the world; the greatest capacity for innovation in the world; and the greatest political system in the world.
- Transcript from interview with CBS' Roger Mudd, 10/12/1979
"What the hell is he saying out there? Fire whoever coached him for this."
- Paul Kirk, Senior Aide to Ted Kennedy, backstage during the interview
"KENNEDY FORMALLY ANNOUNCES PRIMARY CHALLENGE TO PRESIDENT CARTER. STILL BEATS CARTER NATIONWIDE DESPITE INTERVIEW"
- 10/25/1979
QUESTION FROM REPORTER: Both nationwide polling and polling from New Hampshire has shown the President falling behind Senator Kennedy. There have been rumors that the President may be planning on dropping out of the race in the interest of Party Unity. Are those rumors true.
JODY POWELL: Absolutely not. The President is staying in the race. And I would also like to add that since Senator Kennedy has started his campaign, the polling has narrowed significantly, an-
REPORTER: He's still behind in nearly every poll by over 10 points
JODY POWELL: Which is — let me finish — which is still showing a trend of imporvement. And I must add that polling from Iowa shows that Carter gaining significant ground, with some polls even showing him ahead of Mr. Kennedy.
REPORTER: Well, that still doesn't--
JODY POWELL: I'm sorry, we have to move on. Next question. John McClatchy, Reuters.
- Excerpt from Press Conference of Former White House Press Secretary Jody Powell, 11/19/1979