My allegiance is to the Republic, to democracy!

Kazys Škirpa, the incumbent chief of staff of the Lithuanian Armed Forces and a supporter of the farmer left wing coalition which ruled Lithuania at the time, was an opponent of the 1926 Lithuanian coup d'etat and tried resisting the takeover of the government by the consporators, however, his resistance to the military coup was started without any preparation and was largely post-factum, so Škirpa quickly swallowed the loss, gave up, accepted his removal from the position of Chief of Staff and instead became an attache to Berlin.

POD: Škirpa takes the rumors floating across Kaunas of a coup planned by Tautininkai-aligned officers more seriously and, with the pretext of ongoing army reform and relieving the old guard of the military, purges the main conspirators Ladyga and Plechavičius from the military. Škirpa's fight against a potential military coup, as well as their eroding popularity, alarm the Farmer-LSDP government of a possible coup and they roll back the worst of the excesses they went through to cut the funding of the military, regaining enough of the army's trust to prevent a coup attempt from firing regardless. Democracy in Lithuania is saved.

For now. Interwar Lithuania was far from a stable state and the Great Depression hasn't even happened yet, so it's likely that democracy in Lithuania is not going to last for too long regardless. However, even eight additional years would leave a lot of changes for the country. A longer experience with democracy would help solidify the country's democratic national identity and wouldn't give the Soviet Union a pretext to call Interwar Lithuania a ''fascist state".

More importantly, the comprehensive army reform which Kazys Škirpa started, which would have left the Lithuanian Army in a far stronger state than it was in OTL 1940, would not have been cancelled, which could have knock-on effects of its own.

Thoughts?
 
Kazys Škirpa, the incumbent chief of staff of the Lithuanian Armed Forces and a supporter of the farmer left wing coalition which ruled Lithuania at the time, was an opponent of the 1926 Lithuanian coup d'etat and tried resisting the takeover of the government by the consporators, however, his resistance to the military coup was started without any preparation and was largely post-factum, so Škirpa quickly swallowed the loss, gave up, accepted his removal from the position of Chief of Staff and instead became an attache to Berlin.

POD: Škirpa takes the rumors floating across Kaunas of a coup planned by Tautininkai-aligned officers more seriously and, with the pretext of ongoing army reform and relieving the old guard of the military, purges the main conspirators Ladyga and Plechavičius from the military. Škirpa's fight against a potential military coup, as well as their eroding popularity, alarm the Farmer-LSDP government of a possible coup and they roll back the worst of the excesses they went through to cut the funding of the military, regaining enough of the army's trust to prevent a coup attempt from firing regardless. Democracy in Lithuania is saved.

For now. Interwar Lithuania was far from a stable state and the Great Depression hasn't even happened yet, so it's likely that democracy in Lithuania is not going to last for too long regardless. However, even eight additional years would leave a lot of changes for the country. A longer experience with democracy would help solidify the country's democratic national identity and wouldn't give the Soviet Union a pretext to call Interwar Lithuania a ''fascist state".

More importantly, the comprehensive army reform which Kazys Škirpa started, which would have left the Lithuanian Army in a far stronger state than it was in OTL 1940, would not have been cancelled, which could have knock-on effects of its own.

Thoughts?
interesting for sure,

However come 41 which side do they choose?
if they choose the Germans, than after the war is over Lithuania is crushed and occupied by the soviets
if they choose the soviets, same effect, and its not like the soviets were really bothered about self determination. They considered the Baltics as their right to possess as they were former parts of the Russian empire.

now an interesting proposal would be that they remain neutral, however I do not see anyone respecting that.

It wasn't that freedom, democratic values were not saved in Lithuania, its more the time frame of things. if you can manage to avoid WW II ( somehow) then you have a chance at maintaining a free Baltic region.

Lithuania is not a big nation and holding out wedged in between three nations ( Poland, Soviet Union, and Germany ) who all feel they have some dibs on the place isn't going to pan well
 
So, after going down the old rabbit hole, here's some conclusions I've drawn, @Augenis. Please don't hesitate to correct me where I miss context or just get the facts wrong.
As @Histor32, the unfortunate thing is that Lithuania's fate is practically determined by outside factors, ultimately the most salient possible effect in the longterm is whether continued democracy would facilitate a more successful foreign policy. Of course, it would also be good for the country itself and its people. Then again, preserving Lithuanian democracy would deprive the country of the leadership of the man of the best facial hair of any modern leader. I think that a democratic government would have more flexibility in the foreign policy realm, as opposed to a dictatorship yoked to a cadre of nationalists, though who knows whether the Poles would be receptive to a thaw, as would seem to be the best (though unpalatable) option for increasing its freedom of action and perhaps kicking off a full intermarium policy .And if that exists as a fait accompli, it could provide a pressure to the English and French to support eastern Europe when it really matters. Of course, this doesn't have be the only desirable outcome. Perhaps Lithuania could establish a stronger army that would create a better diplomatic situation without Polish rapprochement, or could somehow juggle the Germans and the Russians to survival. No matter how it turns out, it would certainly be interesting.
 

Deleted member 94680

Would a “Democratic Lithuania” - although crushed by circumstances and surrounding great powers during the War - stand a chance of being supported by the WAllies come Yalta or Tehran? A Government In Exile based in London maintaining an image of independent Lithuania and securing Anglo-American support?
 
There isn't really much I can comment.

Would a “Democratic Lithuania” - although crushed by circumstances and surrounding great powers during the War - stand a chance of being supported by the WAllies come Yalta or Tehran? A Government In Exile based in London maintaining an image of independent Lithuania and securing Anglo-American support?
Not any more than Czechoslovakia.
 
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