Mutual exhuastion in WWI

Suppose that the United States never enter the war, maybe due to no unconditional submarine warfare (and, as a result, of course no Zimmerman telegram). The spring offensive of 1918 is still launched, and it still becomes a bloody failure because, face it, the US didn't have that many boots on the ground at the time, and although Entente morale and equipment will be worse of, it probable wouldn't have been enough for Paris and the Atlantic ports to fall. At the other hand, without US troops, industrial capacity and the moral boost it gives to the Western power and the moral undermining of the CP, I don't think there would have necessarily been a revolution in Germany by October. The Sailors would never rise up, because the Admirals wouldn't be planning to send them to certain death in a last gamble, why generally better military situation would cool of the hotheads.

Yet the situation is bad. Revolutionary sentiment is simmering among the German populace, the French mutinies of 1917 should be returning after yet another carnage (the autumn offensive) to no good, while Italy is close to collapse.

The German and Austrian high commands decides to gamble one last time. As French and Italians are mutinying they call up the reserves, shifts troops from the eastern frontier, wagering that whatever the Bolsheviks get can be retaken at a later date.

As the Christmas offensive is launched, they initially appear to be right. While the German army has lost its blunt in 1918, the French army is even worse of, and if the Germans are mainly advancing because the French are defecting the front, they are advancing nonetheless. But its too slow, and as the French rallies to defend Paris, the German machine runs out of steam. And on both home-fronts strikes and demonstrations are growing exponentially.

It begins at a section of the front were the Frenchmen has mutinied, driven of their officers and has even at places raised the Red banner. As an exhausted battalion of Berliners are ordered to charge, they refuse. The entire section of the front is soon infected. As the Germans know that something similar is going on on the other side of the line they begin franchising with the enemy. The spirit of Christmas 1914 returns, but with a rebellious streak. The rumour spreads like wild-fire, and soon the burst of gunfire is replaced by the Internationale at many sections. As fraternization becomes common, the possibility of returning to slaughtering each decreases.

On the homefronts, a situation analogous to OTL German revolution develops as a result of the news from the war. The strikes turns into general-strikes, turning into Soviets (councils). In a dialectical process, the soldiers are in turn radicalised and emboldened. The German army begins mass-defection, peacefully withdrawing. Whatever remains loyal to the Kaiser is forced to follow suit. The French let them go in peace, many of the soldiers there retuning home as well, or going to Paris.

Is this plausible? Reflections?
 
I don't know if the specific scenario presented here is possible or not. I will leave that determination to others, but if you can butterfly away the entrance of the United States into the war, then a peace of exhaustion is not only possible, but inevitable, I think. There had already been mutinies in the French Army, and there were rumblings of the same in the German Army and the British Navy. I think World War I was in the process of ending, regardless and probably wouldn't have lasted beyond 1919.
 
Spring 1918

IIRC, the Spring Offensive was launched, in part, due to the need for a victory before swarms of Americans could land in France. No US declaration of war, and Germany has less need for an immeadiate win. That offensive is likely changed drasticly.

At least some of the French mutinies were a refusal to attack, but the soldiers might well have fought if the Germans attacked. It's one thing to go over the top when there's machine guns waiting for you, another to defend from a (relatively) safe trench when the enemy is trying to push deeper into your homeland.

That said, a peace of exhaustion is quite possible. Germany could return to pre-war borders in the west, and claim to have won the war, as Brest-Livosk stays in place--France could claim to have won, as Germany retreated to pre-war borders despite the abandonment of the Russians.
 
If there is a peace by exhaustion I doubt the new order in the east would remain, as the Social Democrats would have no mandate for imperialism.

What I imagine is a longer war, perhaps longer then described above, eventually devolving into a German revolution-style collapse on a continental-wide scale (Germany, France, Italy, Austria-Hungary).

But I think the spring-offensive would still be in place. The blockade would still be harming Germany, and the Entente still has a manpower-reserve in the colonies and an industrial-reserve in the form of US support/loans. The generals should want to end it quickly.
 
A mutual exaustion peace in the west would be counted as a German victory because of the their gains in the east. The postwar rebuilding would see Germany end up with much greater power than France or Britain as a result of aquiring sattelites in the east.
 
I believe there was another TL that had this premise. I dont remember which, I`ll look for it in the "post 1900".
 
I believe there was another TL that had this premise. I dont remember which, I`ll look for it in the "post 1900".

yes that timeline is called: Wilson have a major stroke, and for that don't run for the U.S presidency. Then an ultra-isolationist president of USA keep out of the WW1, resulting in a Boxing Day Entente Offensive that result a bloddy fiasco to both side and both side accept a 'Fail Accompli' peace

you can read here:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/Discussion/showthread.php?t=117795&page=3
 
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