Mutiny in Egyptian army 1981

destiple

Banned
A much bigger conspiracy to get rid of sadat than actually was in 1981
many top military officals involved trying to bring a radical moslem state into existence as the shiites did in iran just recently

after assasination , many units of the army in a pre-planned move attack the army and airforce head quarters and try to assasinate other top generals
But the loyalists fight back and the country is involved in a civil war ...
Isreal seeing that a radical moslem egypt will be a nightmare offers to fly in assistence to the loyalists, isreali army is on high alert but the egyptian armed forces implode as the rebel units and the moslem militias backed a certain amount of popular support proved a very tenacious foe.Libya and Syria seeing their chance to overthrow the pro-western egyptian govt. help the radicals ( despite their abhorence of islamic radicals at home) with the backing of USSR who has a score to settle with the present egyptian govt.
Rebels will likely get hold of only the lighter arms and maybe some armored units and artillery. Airforce I think will still be largely loyal to the govt apart from individual pilots who may defect having to face the prospect of firing on their fellow moslems.No doubt the rebels will be supplied by a huge amount of arms via soviet client states, large number of them SAMs to deal with EAF.
What is the likely outcome? will the loyalists gain control or a revolution?
Soviet and their clients will not want the rebels to have a decisive advantage either and would likely just give them enough supplies to prolong attrition and the civil war
 
A much bigger conspiracy to get rid of sadat than actually was in 1981
many top military officals involved trying to bring a radical moslem state into existence as the shiites did in iran just recently

The top military brass wouldn't want a radical Islamic state. The idea of a mutiny against the pro-western Egyptian government of '81 is fascinating. I had a blog post entitled, IIRC, "Alternate Mideast Scenario 1980s." A much more plausible cause of military revolt in '81, IMO, is realization by Badawy and other Egyptian generals, in March 1981, that sadat wants to kill them.

Isreal seeing that a radical moslem egypt will be a nightmare offers to fly in assistence to the loyalists,

They'd be crazy to get involved--highly counterproductive. Even after peace, any side backed by Israel will be anathema to most Egyptians.

Libya and Syria seeing their chance to overthrow the pro-western egyptian govt. help the radicals ( despite their abhorence of islamic radicals at home) with the backing of USSR who has a score to settle with the present egyptian govt.

Sure those countries would want Egypt to return to a pre-Sadat course.

No doubt the rebels will be supplied by a huge amount of arms via soviet client states, large number of them SAMs to deal with EAF.

Libya could provide a lot out of its inventory, already big by then, yet mostly unmanned.


Soviet and their clients will not want the rebels to have a decisive advantage either and would likely just give them enough supplies to prolong attrition and the civil war

No I think the other arabs like Libya and Syria would prefer a quick revolution which damages the Egyptian armed forces as little as possible, so Egypt can quickly rejoin the anti-Israel bloc.
 
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Anchises

Banned
A much bigger conspiracy to get rid of sadat than actually was in 1981
many top military officals involved trying to bring a radical moslem state into existence as the shiites did in iran just recently

after assasination , many units of the army in a pre-planned move attack the army and airforce head quarters and try to assasinate other top generals
But the loyalists fight back and the country is involved in a civil war ...
Isreal seeing that a radical moslem egypt will be a nightmare offers to fly in assistence to the loyalists, isreali army is on high alert but the egyptian armed forces implode as the rebel units and the moslem militias backed a certain amount of popular support proved a very tenacious foe.Libya and Syria seeing their chance to overthrow the pro-western egyptian govt. help the radicals ( despite their abhorence of islamic radicals at home) with the backing of USSR who has a score to settle with the present egyptian govt.
Rebels will likely get hold of only the lighter arms and maybe some armored units and artillery. Airforce I think will still be largely loyal to the govt apart from individual pilots who may defect having to face the prospect of firing on their fellow moslems.No doubt the rebels will be supplied by a huge amount of arms via soviet client states, large number of them SAMs to deal with EAF.
What is the likely outcome? will the loyalists gain control or a revolution?
Soviet and their clients will not want the rebels to have a decisive advantage either and would likely just give them enough supplies to prolong attrition and the civil war

Depends on what the plotters actually want.

If they just want continued anti-Israel hostility, using radical Islam as fig leaf, not much would change. The Soviets would still pump weapons in after 1985, and a less-insane version of Gaddafi's ideology would probably be adopted.

If you have a genuine "Muslim Brotherhood in cahoots with a significant part of the Officer Corps" scenario Middle Eastern history is flying of the rails quickly. Forget Camp David, forget the deep involvement in Lebanon and expect at least another major Israeli-Egypt conflict.
 

destiple

Banned
The top military brass wouldn't want a radical Islamic state. The idea of a mutiny against the pro-western Egyptian government of '81 is fascinating. I had a blog post entitled, IIRC, "Alternate Mideast Scenario 1980s." A much more plausible cause of military revolt in '81, IMO, is realization by Badawy and other Egyptian generals, in March 1981, that sadat wants to kill them.



They'd be crazy to get involved--highly counterproductive. Even after peace, any side backed by Israel will be anathema to most Egyptians.



Sure those countries would want Egypt to return to a pre-Sadat course.



Libya could provide a lot out of its inventory, already big by then, yet mostly unmanned.




No I think the other arabs like Libya and Syria would prefer a quick revolution which damages the Egyptian armed forces as little as possible, so Egypt can quickly rejoin the anti-Israel bloc.
Thanks can you please share your blogpost
 
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