Mutiny in Egyptian army 1981

nastle

Banned
A much bigger conspiracy to get rid of sadat than actually was in 1981
many top military officals involved trying to bring a radical moslem state into existence as the shiites did in iran just recently

after assasination , many units of the army in a pre-planned move attack the army and airforce head quarters and try to assasinate other top generals
But the loyalists fight back and the country is involved in a civil war ...
Isreal seeing that a radical moslem egypt will be a nightmare offers to fly in assistence to the loyalists, isreali army is on high alert but the egyptian armed forces implode as the rebel units and the moslem militias backed a certain amount of popular support proved a very tenacious foe.Libya and Syria seeing their chance to overthrow the pro-western egyptian govt. help the radicals with the backing of USSR who has a score to settle with the present egyptian govt.
Rebels will likely get hold of only the lighter arms and maybe some armored units and artillery. Airforce I think will still be largely loyal to the govt apart from individual pilots who may defect having to face the prospect of firing on their fellow moslems.No doubt the rebels will be supplied by a huge amount of arms via soviet client states, large number of them SAMs to deal with EAF.
What is the likely outcome? will the loyalists gain control or a revolution?
will isreal have to intervene on the side of loyalists ?
 
will isreal have to intervene on the side of loyalists ?

seems unlikely nothing would make the Loyalists more unpopular than Israelis being seen as adding them, I can see them, moving into the Sinai to make a buffer, in 1981 they still had some of the Sinai, I don't see that getting handed over on time (or at all) the US might move on the Suez Canal, seems like a Reagan move, and post Iran I think the American people would be cool with giving a black eye to Muslim radicals
 

nastle

Banned
seems unlikely nothing would make the Loyalists more unpopular than Israelis being seen as adding them, I can see them, moving into the Sinai to make a buffer, in 1981 they still had some of the Sinai, I don't see that getting handed over on time (or at all) the US might move on the Suez Canal, seems like a Reagan move, and post Iran I think the American people would be cool with giving a black eye to Muslim radicals
Well israelis might give the loyalists covert support they likely would also have the silent approval of Saudis.
Iran, syria and libya would likely support the rebels.
You are right I dont think Israel getting actively involved however it would be really bad for israel if a radical muslim govt takes power in Egypt.

How would it change the middle east ?

What would its relations be with other powers like USSR or Iran ?
 
Well israelis might give the loyalists covert support they likely would also have the silent approval of Saudis.
Iran, syria and libya would likely support the rebels.
You are right I dont think Israel getting actively involved however it would be really bad for israel if a radical muslim govt takes power in Egypt.

How would it change the middle east ?

What would its relations be with other powers like USSR or Iran ?

covert support is a maybe, but still.... its a HUDGE risk for the loyalists if it comes to light it'd blow up, plus most Loyalists don't like Israel any more than any one else, taking aid would be highly distasteful to them they would only take it if they were on the ropes and if thats the case it'd likely be too late

you're right about a radical muslim government would be bad for Israel, or maybe not, in 1981 the Israeli border:
history-of-israel2.gif

as you can see part of Sinai is still Israeli and likely to stay that way, the IDF might push deeper into the Sinai for a bigger buffer, an Islamic Egypt would at once lose US military aid, and seems very unlike to get any Soviet aid (a corner of Islamism was a 3rd way between and against both the US and USSR) thus the military will exponentially get worse, a civil war and post revolution purging will make it weak and with out way to bounce back, we've seen 4 wars between Israel and Egypt and Israel has won all of them, this seem likely to happen again, a terrorist state to its south might give Israel good PR for its 1982 war in Lebanon

I doubt Iran and Egypt would have a good relationship, Iran is Shia and Egypt is Sunni and the Iranians are kind of a buggy man for Arabs, like wise Syria is a Secular Leftists Soviet friendly nation their 2000s friendship with Iran is more a "anti-Israel" pack than any real friendship, Libya... is any ones guess.
 
1. The Iranians and Egyptians will hate each other.

2. The Soviets are not stupid enough to back a group just as hostile to godless communism as it is to the West, this is why the Soviet Union backed Iraq and not Iran in the Iran-Iraq War. Instead they will sit back and laugh as Egypt falls into chaos, the best outcome for the Soviets is to have neither side completely win and for Egypt to be a weakened, anemic state.

3. The Mossad running a few operations on behalf of the Egyptian government is the best they're going to get, it's in Israel's interests to tread VERY carefully in this matter.

4. Radical Islamic Egypt doesn't have a friend to turn to in the Middle East, they'll be seen as exporters of the revolution, and worst of all, they're Sunnis, that means they can take a shot at the populations of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other major Sunni nations to encourage them to rise up in the name of Islamic revolution. The Soviets have no interests in subsidizing them for the reasons I have mentioned already. Neither do the Americans, it really is a complete Egypt-screw and chances are they are going to be out in the cold for a good long time.
 

nastle

Banned
^ I think this will take away the focus from the "mujahidden" and their rosy potrayal in western media !
Hopefully USSR would be able to crush their resistence sooner.
And maybe the western countries will wakeup to the threat of radical islam much earlier and sensibly cooperate with USSR.

I doubt Iran and Egypt would have a good relationship, Iran is Shia and Egypt is Sunni and the Iranians are kind of a buggy man for Arabs, like wise Syria is a Secular Leftists Soviet friendly nation their 2000s friendship with Iran is more a "anti-Israel" pack than any real friendship, Libya... is any ones guess.
Libya will back anyone who is anti-israel and given their recent border wars with egypt in 1977 its very likely

I agree there are no natural allies for radical muslim egypt but their influence if they win will be huge, kinda like a early "arab spring" remember al-azhar the sunni muslim vatican is in egypt too.

as you can see part of Sinai is still Israeli and likely to stay that way, the IDF might push deeper into the Sinai for a bigger buffer, an Islamic Egypt would at once lose US military aid, and seems very unlike to get any Soviet aid (a corner of Islamism was a 3rd way between and against both the US and USSR) thus the military will exponentially get worse, a civil war and post revolution purging will make it weak and with out way to bounce back, we've seen 4 wars between Israel and Egypt and Israel has won all of them, this seem likely to happen again, a terrorist state to its south might give Israel good PR for its 1982 war in Lebanon
Yes I fogot about the sinai, its unlikely to get Soviet aid directly but syrians and libyans might help them for the sake of ousting the hated Mubarak/sadat remember that at that time no one will be taking these radicals too seriously.
Egyptian airforce will be helpless without US help, F-16s and F-4s likely grounded.The vast bulk of egyptian army were conscripts and without good generals their fighting ability is questionable.
Another option is an arab peace keeping force but who will supply the manpower ( since iraq is locked in a war with iran)?
What will happen to the suez ?
 
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nastle

Banned
seems unlikely nothing would make the Loyalists more unpopular than Israelis being seen as adding them, I can see them, moving into the Sinai to make a buffer, in 1981 they still had some of the Sinai, I don't see that getting handed over on time (or at all) the US might move on the Suez Canal, seems like a Reagan move, and post Iran I think the American people would be cool with giving a black eye to Muslim radicals
WHat will KSA do ?
if they back the radicals they risk a similar uprising in their own homeland
remember the 79 mecca uprising
OR they watch as Egypt implode into a civil war , with Libya , Israel playing off different factions against each other

WIll the sunni extremist and Shiite Iran cooperate ( ala Hamas links with iran) ?
esp in their stance against Israel ?

will the Syrians back the islamists against Israel but risk a similar uprising in their state or back the secular military which they despise too due to their entente with Israel

what will PLO do ? the Palestinians will be attracted to these religious parties ? a Intra-palestinain civil war too ?
 
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