Mussolini warns Hitler prior to Sep. 1939?

As we all know Mussolini decided to stay neutral in 1939, and although his exasperated the Fuhrer it was (as Mussolini's decisions go) a smart one as the Italian military was nowhere near ready for war.

However, keeping in mind that the Duce was never fully as committed as his German pal to a new European order and had earlier in his life dismissed him as a nobody and even threatened him over Austria, let's say that he decides that, for whatever reason he doesn't want a Second World War. POD is August 25th 1939 and by this stage it's pretty obvious what is going to happen. Mussolini tells Hitler that an attack on Poland means Italy declares war and expects Hitler to back down like he did over Austria.

What does Hitler do? Does he, in a blind rage at this betrayal attack anyway? Or does the coalition against him seem now too vast to go ahead? Keeping in mind most of the invasion preparations are by this stage complete.

My own thoughts are that if the invasion happens and Italy joins the Allies (let's say in return for some colonial territories as compensation) the main military change will be that a few French divisions are available in 1940 that weren't earlier. The Italian front goes nowhere, and Italy is occupied some time in 1940/1941.
 
I would think that Hitler might still go on, after all its pretty easy to block the Brenner pass with a few extra infantry divisions which the Germans have plenty of.

However this exposes Italy to much risk without much possible gain. If France falls just the same. Italy will be forced to sue for peace and they will have to give Trieste and South Tyrol back as a minimum and a change in Italian government will likely occur and Mussolini is deposed.

Probably better to just remain neutral and when France is about to fall negotiate with the French for a joint condominium over Tunisia as a price for reaming neutral (and maybe the British for Cyprus post war). Then you hope the Germans get locked into a never ending conflict with the Soviets, you send a division or two of volunteers to keep Hitler happy but that is about it.
 
it might avert war. Hitler thought no one took Poland seriously. If Italy comes in last second against him he will presume that the Brits will declare war. This changes the gambit and stops ww2
 
For Italy to threaten war over Poland in 1939 means the several years beforehand must be very different. Mussolini getting cold feet means neutrality. For Mussolini to threaten war means complete repudiation of his foreign policy since the Pact of Steel - it makes no sense unless there was a prior breakdown in relations between Hitler and Mussolini.

It would also be foolhardy unless Italy had already discussed a joint action program in case of war. Italy declaring war without absolute guarantee that Britain and France also go to war (which is not inevitable on August 25, 1939 - Hitler obviously thought the MR Pact would prevent a greater war) would be a disaster. Doing so together but without a plan (which was OTL's Britain and France) was also stupid.

A better idea would be for Mussolini to tell Hitler that making a pact with the Soviet Union is a betrayal of the Anti-Comintern Pact, and that any agreements with Italy concerning war with the western powers are now null and void. He is assuming neutrality in any dispute or war. That keeps Mussolini's options open for either rapprochement with the Allies or to reconcile with Hitler later on.
 
I would say that the last chance is the winter war. Mussolini sent planes and weapons to the finns to help them against Russia, but the shipments were seized by the germans on Stalin's request.

Otl Mussolini accepted the fact when Hitler explained the need to keep the russians happy for the moment. But let say that instead Mussolini denouce the whole thing as a blatant betrayal of the whole anticomintern pact.

The pro allied faction among the upper echelons of the fascist party takes so the chance to influence Mussolini to move Italy away from the germans. Soon Grandi hammers an accord with Uk and France: the allies suspends any sanction against Italy in exchange for her "interested neutrality during the current unpleasentness"

So in the winter of 1940, Mussolini leaves the pact of steel and declares full neutrality, while moving several divisions toward the alps...
 
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