Mussolini, the Elder Statesman of Europe

Allow me start off with stating that I am in no way a proponent or even an apologist for the man or his regime, I only wish to play ‘Devils Advocate’ here.

But supposing that during the state visit in ‘37 to Germany Mussolini takes a personnel dislike to Hitler and his entourage and so in turn there is no ‘Pact of Steel’ as far as Italy is concerned.

Italy does not enter the war on the axis side and Mussolini pursues a modified version of his empire building, so baring accidents and assassination attempts Mussolini maintains his position and survives into old age (staying well clear of certain petrol stations).

If so would history now look upon him as the man who saved Italy, a great international statesman and strong man of Europe taking his place next to De Gaulle, Churchill, Roosevelt etc..... as a respected world leader. Would fascism as a political force be more acceptable today (with Nazism still remaining the force of evil).

Could Mussolini even become a major player in post war Europe, becoming a key American ally in the Mediterranean against the communists, even become a prime mover in NATO.

The reason behind this post is that I couldn’t help but notice that the third main fascist dictator from the 30’s General Franco managed to stay out of the war (on the whole) and concentrate purely on Spanish issues leading to a successful (from his point of view) career well onto the seventies.

In this scenario I could genuinely see Mussolini and Kennedy standing side by side ‘the elder statesman and the young president’ on the balcony of the Palazzo Venezia.


Any thoughts?
 

Insider

Banned
This is very probable. Mussolini disliked Hitler for years. I have to say that in that case Germany would find Anschluss and Monachium a far more challenging conquests - most likely either backing down, or causing the war to erupt earlier.
 
Well, I can imagine several timelines where this could happen.

For starters, by 1934 Italy was guaranteeing the independence of Austria. That year, when Austrian chancellor Dollfuss was murdered in a Nazi-backed coup attempt, Mussolini actually moved troops to the Austrian border to deter Hitler from invading!

The creation of the Axis in 1936 was in part an effort to win over Italy and undermine its support for Austrian independence.

I can imagine a timeline in which Mussolini feels insulted by something Hitler say or did, or even one in which he sees more strategic value in protecting Austria, and instead acts in defense of Austrian independence, perhaps provoking war with Germany as early as 1938.

We could be talking of Mussolini as that "eccentric controversial Italian ruler that stopped Hitler"!

Likewise, a POD in which Hitler's rise never happens could see fascism contained to Italy alone, we would see it as a quirky Italian oddity and it would seem much less threatening a movement than what it was in OTL.
 

Insider

Banned
I bet we would be taught to regard Nazism and Communism as aberrations of completely ok systems of fascism and socialism. There would be some dissent once the more gruesome secrets of Italian State would be revealed, but unless Mussolini becomes increasingly brutal in this scenario, there wouldn't be many of them. In OTL OVRA (Organizzazione per la Vigilanza e la Repressione dell'Antifascismo) had killed hundreds, but these were just hundreds. The inter-war period was volatile, and many governments suppressed dissent with violence.
I wonder what would happen with intervention forces in Spain.... Would they be withdrawn, leaving Franco on his own, or perhaps Mussolini would find some agreement with the Entente regarding Spain?
 
Allow me start off with stating that I am in no way a proponent or even an apologist for the man or his regime, I only wish to play ‘Devils Advocate’ here.

But supposing that during the state visit in ‘37 to Germany Mussolini takes a personnel dislike to Hitler and his entourage and so in turn there is no ‘Pact of Steel’ as far as Italy is concerned.

Italy does not enter the war on the axis side and Mussolini pursues a modified version of his empire building, so baring accidents and assassination attempts Mussolini maintains his position and survives into old age (staying well clear of certain petrol stations).

If so would history now look upon him as the man who saved Italy, a great international statesman and strong man of Europe taking his place next to De Gaulle, Churchill, Roosevelt etc..... as a respected world leader. Would fascism as a political force be more acceptable today (with Nazism still remaining the force of evil).

Could Mussolini even become a major player in post war Europe, becoming a key American ally in the Mediterranean against the communists, even become a prime mover in NATO.

The reason behind this post is that I couldn’t help but notice that the third main fascist dictator from the 30’s General Franco managed to stay out of the war (on the whole) and concentrate purely on Spanish issues leading to a successful (from his point of view) career well onto the seventies.

In this scenario I could genuinely see Mussolini and Kennedy standing side by side ‘the elder statesman and the young president’ on the balcony of the Palazzo Venezia.


Any thoughts?

The brutal war in Ethiopia claimed hundred thousands of lives. This wont be forgotten and it would be Mossulini´s legacy.
 

Archibald

Banned
Well, had Mussolini not declared war to France on June 10, 1940, he may have pulled a Franco - and lasted until the 70's. Franco, Salazar and the Greek junta all collapsed in the mid-70's, the last dictatorships in Western Europe.
 
Italy leaves WWII a "winner" by staying neutral until the last year, when they jump on the Allied side.
Elder Statesman status could occur if Italy can broker a peaceful resolution to the Suez crisis.
Italy then becomes the de facto leader of an unaligned block of Spain, Greece, Egypt and others.

Bonus image points for Duce if a successful Home Rule arrangement is worked out for Libya and Ethiopia.
 
Italy leaves WWII a "winner" by staying neutral until the last year, when they jump on the Allied side.
Elder Statesman status could occur if Italy can broker a peaceful resolution to the Suez crisis.
Italy then becomes the de facto leader of an unaligned block of Spain, Greece, Egypt and others.

Bonus image points for Duce if a successful Home Rule arrangement is worked out for Libya and Ethiopia.
Late intervention raises some questions: one is where the Italians go and how far they do. If they succeed in any meaningful way, Mussolini's reputation is improved but there is still room for mistake making and as a result, the attempt to display national power could still come with embarassingly high casualties.

Another thing of great important is Yugoslavia. By that late stage in the war, they could probably have some sort of hand in Yugoslavia. If Yugoslavia goes communist, Italy is in much more direct conflict with the Eastern bloc. If it tries to use the chaos of the end of the war to take Dalmatia, the West will be very upset. They already have a colony in Europe, Albania. That is not going to be considered good. Who knows what kind of "adventures" they'll get into throughout their empire too. We're looking at Italy becoming a rare "3rd world" power (in terms of alignment of course, not in the colloquial misuse of this term).

Oh, and one other thing. I think it's safe to say that this Italy will have nuclear weapons before Mussolini is gone.
 
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There is a entire timeline about that, you can read here, it is one of my favorites, there are a lot of changes, like the decolonization is never finished as Italy, portugal, Spain and other authoritarian countries integrate their colonies giving them the same rights as mainland provinces
 
If after the war in which Italy stays neutral or enters on the Allied side late, Mussolini then becomes a staunch and vocal member of the anti-communist block, he will be viewed very positively, particularly if he plays a role in mother henning his own country to some form of democracy then he will be viewed very positively and a lot of his crimes will be swept under the rug.
 
An Italy non aligned or even in open hostily with Germany can butterfly interely WW2 as we know it, because Benny will probably stop Adolf adventures the moment he set a foot in Austria.
The problem here is that by 1937 Italy had started to rely heavily on commerce with Germany due to the sanctions and there is the civil war in Spain were both nation had sent a sizeble expeditionary corps to aid Franco so the sceanario imply that while Mussolini dislike Hitler he allow him to annex Austria for political and economic reason but he will probably want the German side of the border officially demilitarizated and an immediate agreement over the transfer of the German population of Sud Tyrol in Germany (as OTL but proably before giving permission for the annexation).
Munich will probably goes as OTL as except Hitler personally, all side want to avoid war at this stage...and Benny like the spotlight too much to miss the opportunity.
Once the war start and Italy had not signed the Pact of Steel and dislike Adolf but mantain her neutrality, well...there is a lot of thread here that show what can happen with a neutral Italy; Mussolini for itself will try to milk everything possible from the situation and Churchill promised in exchange of neutrality a place at the winner table; Albania will be probably invaded a couple of months later than OTL and Greece and Jugoslavia will receive a lot of diplomatic pressure to give concession to the Kingdom of Italy.
Romania can find in Italy an ally against Stalin ultimatum and when it will be clear that Germany will lose, it's almost certain that Benny will invade Austria to bring her back in the italian sphere of influence and kept her out of Stalin hand.
Postwar will be difficult, probably Italy can form her own block with fascist-like nation but it will be the weakest of the three but still a force to not dismiss...on the other hand the UK will be in a better position and the URSS will include less of Est Europe.
Libya in the worst case will face a low level insurgency like North Ireland but the arabs will become a minority in the end and the place is already considered part of the mainland; the open wound of the Empire will be Abyssinia and the insurgency there the thing that can bring down the regime in the end.
Israel can quickly become an important and close ally of Italy in the Middle East, expecially if the racial law are not approved due to the political distance between Italy and Germany.
 
Have to admit that I started this wank by looking at Mussolini's demise and comparing it to Franco's survival, mostly to see how a post war Mussolini would fair what with him being a much bigger character on the world stage as his ego wouldn't have it any other way. However reading through some of the comments a non-aligned Italy would create so many butterflies in the war, much fewer British forces tied down in Egypt/Libya freeing them up for other theaters, no British diversion in Greece, the Mediterranean sea a much safer place (possible route for lend lease), no Africa Korps, no Taranto (how would this affect the Japanese plans for Pearl Harbour?), more German forces for Barbarossa etc......
 
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