Mussolini stays neutral but still invades Greece.

Lets assume Mussolini chooses to remain neutral in June 1940. However, he still decides to invade Greece. Assuming the British do not intervene, how far would this improve Mussolini's prospects? He would be able to use his powerful navy to bombard Athens, and also to support amphibious landings behind the Greek lines in Albania. It may also have eased the supply situation for Italian forces in Albania.

Would the Greeks still be able to hold out?
 

Don Quijote

Banned
Lets assume Mussolini chooses to remain neutral in June 1940. However, he still decides to invade Greece. Assuming the British do not intervene, how far would this improve Mussolini's prospects? He would be able to use his powerful navy to bombard Athens, and also to support amphibious landings behind the Greek lines in Albania. It may also have eased the supply situation for Italian forces in Albania.

Would the Greeks still be able to hold out?
Given how much of a disaster the actual Italian invasion was when the Greeks were on their own, I don't see why it would go much better in this scenario. Invading in June rather than October does at least give a longer window of good weather before winter closes in, helping the Regia Aeronautica a bit, but the ground situation won't be much different. At sea, the Italians do gain an advantage, although it depends on the British deciding to abandon Greece to the Italians, which is unlikely. Even if Mussolini claims 'neutrality', an Italian occupied Greece is not something the British want, as it closes off Allied access to the rest of the Balkans and threatens Egypt and Cyprus. They definitely won't stand by and let Crete fall.
 
Britain issued the same guarantee to Greece as it did to Poland, at the same time.
Chance that they don't intervene is close to nil

Yes I cannot see Britain despite the burden it was already under not opposing an invasion of one fo the few Soverign nations left in Europe even if they were not at war with Italy.

It would certainly seek to 'lead by example' particularly with Winston at No 10
 
Without a British guarantee, yes, Italy will have a much easier time with only an active front.
With a British guarantee, not a chance, since it will find herself in the same situation as OTL, with fronts and enemies everywhere except north.
 
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