Mussolini sets out the war.

What if Mussolini realizing Italy it is no shape to enter WWII tells Hitler that Italy will set out the conflict. But since Italy is still a fascist state helps Germany with raw materials and some production of weapons. Would not having Italy's man power and navel power really effect Germany's war that much? Would it change the way Hitler fought the war not having Mussolini in his camp. How do you think it would of changed WWII. How would the allies treat Italy after the war, the same as Franco's Spain?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Well without Mussolini's ill-fated forays into the Balkans, we may see much less German involvement in the region, which could have some noteworthy ramifications on how the Eastern Front goes.
 
Coincidentally I just started a TL on just this subject although the POD is different since it's Mussolini himself who choses neutrality. As the war goes on, he keeps playing both sides for his own gain such as promising neutrality to the Allies in return for a free hand in the Balkans while importing raw materials for Germany through Italian ports for example.

Here it is: "Italy Shall Not Fight" https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=159659
 
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Coincidentally I just started a TL on just this subject although the POD is different since it's Mussolini himself who choses neutrality. As the war goes on, he keeps playing both sides for his own gain such as promising neutrality to the Allies in return for a free hand in the Balkans while importing raw materials for Germany through Italian ports for example.

Here it is: "Italy Shall Not Fight" https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=159659
I havent read your TL, but Longvin started a TL- creatively titled 'Italy 1936'- along those lines in another board and the result was very ASB but still could be a good read if you havent seen it yet.
 

Commissar

Banned
Italy sits out, then Japan does too as its far easier to subcontract oil shipments through the Italians than to go to war for it.

That in turn means Hitler never declares war on the U.S. which in turn means Stalin loses.
 

Cook

Banned
Italy sits out, then Japan does too as its far easier to subcontract oil shipments through the Italians than to go to war for it.

That in turn means Hitler never declares war on the U.S. which in turn means Stalin loses.

Really?

And how do you get to that idea?
 
Well, obviously Germany wouldn't need to keep diverting forces and commanders to Italy and points south to bail them out. OTOH, the WAllies will need to put far fewer forces into defending the area (it'll be mostly a nice Allied lake), and there's a non-trivial chance of a FFO scenario. If Mussolini stays out of the Balkans, then that entire area probably stays fairly placid (at least the coastal areas).

Reasonable chance given the Allied control over the area of making Dragoon the main Allied invasion of France--it fully secures Allied supply lines and has certain advantages over a cross-channel invasion, especially in terms of defenses. The difficulty in air cover, though, means that the Allies are going to need Spanish (ha!) or Italian (ha!) support, or will have to invade Corsica first so do CAPs over the region. But considering how successful Dragoon was IOTL, such an invasion might end up being more successful in certain terms than our Overlord.

Overall, this leads to a bit more German success on the Eastern Front, but conversely an easier time for the WAllies and possibly an earlier and differently located invasion. The invasion will have some more forces available to fight it, but will probably be stronger than Overlord IOTL, which will mostly cancel each other out. Germany might end up defeated a few months earlier, and the WAllies might be able to penetrate deeper.

@Commissar: The Italians are not noted for either having great quantities of oil or being located on the Pacific. I find the likelihood of Japan getting oil and other raw materials from them to be...low.
 

Commissar

Banned
Really?

And how do you get to that idea?

The USSR only has twice the population of Germany. The Germans never dropped below a 3-1 causality exchange rate with the Soviets, so the Soviets were losing men faster than they could replace them.

Also the German concentrated most of their firepower into a handful of super divisions and without Italy in the fight those divisions remain on the front where they rip apart the Soviets.

By contrast the Western Allies maintained a 5-4 exchange rate in their favor against the Germans and they were fighting those super divisions for the most part.

@Commissar: The Italians are not noted for either having great quantities of oil or being located on the Pacific. I find the likelihood of Japan getting oil and other raw materials from them to be...low.

It has a Merchant Marine which does trade all over the world, they will simply go to American Ports, pick up Oil on Contract and deliver it at a premium to Japan, then go to Malaysia and pick up Rubber before heading home.

Also the French and British will be in need of Hard Cash as without Italy in the fight, the perception in the U.S. would be that Britain is safe and not in a death struggle so Britain needs Japanese Markets to raise cash.

Finally, with no U.S. involvement, Britain just does not have the resources to throw into the war and must either give up in 43 or utterly collapse.
 
What does this mean?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

"France Fights On". It's both an alternate history WI (France retreats to Algeria and continues to fight, rather than seeking an armistice), and a (French-language) AH story.

It has a Merchant Marine which does trade all over the world, they will simply go to American Ports, pick up Oil on Contract and deliver it at a premium to Japan, then go to Malaysia and pick up Rubber before heading home.

Also the French and British will be in need of Hard Cash as without Italy in the fight, the perception in the U.S. would be that Britain is safe and not in a death struggle so Britain needs Japanese Markets to raise cash.

Finally, with no U.S. involvement, Britain just does not have the resources to throw into the war and must either give up in 43 or utterly collapse.

And the US will tolerate the Italian merchant marine blatantly circumventing the rules to ship oil to their enemy because...? And Japan will feel safe depending solely on the good-will and good-luck of a third party nation because...?

Also, Britain being safe and not in a death struggle without Italy? How does that make sense? Germany was always the main enemy in the ETO, and I can't see them being the only enemy changing things that much. Plus, there's this thing called the Undeclared War between US ASW assets and German subs that was raging for months before the formal deceleration of war by Germany and Japan, you know? It's very likely to result in a formal war before too long; at the latest, I would see US involvement by mid-1942.
 
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