Mussolini killed before WW2

[pls don't ban me]

I think this thread ha been discussed already but i still need more info about it.
So, In this POD Mussolini dies before Hitler Invades Poland( not sure, one of the murder attempts, or perhaps a stroke? he was 55/56 so it won't be strange).
I'm sure that the best candidate to succeed him will be either the king reopening elections or Balbo( supported by Ciano and Prince Umberto) who was even more liked by Roosevelt( they met each other when Balbo reached Chicago in 1933, the italian also was adopted by the Sioux as "chief flying eagle") and Churchill.
I think King Vittorio Emanuele III was spineless ( march of Rome in 1922 and the escape after the switcheroo have proved so in OTL) so i assume we'll have the Second Duce .
After Balbo stabilizes his position there are few thing that will happen for sure:

1. removal of racial and antisemitic laws( balbo best friend was a jew and he ignored the laws in Libya)
2. No entry in the ww2 on German side, no Greek war.
3. Full citizenship for Libyans in order to integrate the region.

After this happens i have my doubts about what happens next.
Balbo was aware that the italian army was no match for any of the great powers( lack of motorized vehicles, desert equipment/training etc) and that even the aviation despite having some good planes( the macchi 202) was lagging behind.
After the French quick fall Balbo will stay out of war keeping the alliance with Germany to avoid invasions. Fun thing is that in OTL even Hitler wanted italy to stay out of the war and be simply the raw materials supplier.

After the long sermon... my question are:

1. As in OTL he tried, Italo will most likely start talks with Britain about and alliance with the possible gains but i don't know what he might ask( free hands on Yugoslavia? French Tunisia? Corsica and Nice? ).
2. Future of france: In OTL Petain government was recognized as legitimate by the USA, Italy , Spain( Axis members excluded) so, in certain case of Italy Joining the allies what happens? will Petain rebel and do the same or Germany will incorporate him as OTL?
3. Balkans! They will escape ww2 for sure, and Bulgaria will avoid the Soviet invasion and communist uprising( Boris III was married with Giovanna daughter of the Italian King so i can see a form of Guarantee/ alliance. Also In case Britain and USA allows it there might be a Partition of Yugoslavia under pressure( no war but Yugoslavia is forced to give Dalmatia to italy and Macedonia+Pirot to Bulgaria, than is left on it's own.)
4. Albanian Occupation, will it happen anyway?
5. aftermath? i assume it would be similar to the Sorairo TL with everything staying italian except Ethiopia which might be liberated under UN pressure. After Balbo dies there will be return to democracy with Ciano or who ever survived of the Old regime acting as final duce for a year before the elections. Fascism will stay as an acceptable Ideology and viewed as different from Nazism.

I know there is the VIVA BALBO TL but it has been abandoned without giving me any answer. Don't be shy and write everything you want to suggest, correct and answer or talk about this Thread. Balbo is one of my favorite characters of modern history and i think he deserved more than a suspicious( despite proved being an accident) death.

 

[Changundramon]

Italy staying neutral helps Germany a lot. No North African adventure, no need to invade Greece, so whenever Barbarossa was supposed to start in the original plans, it will start then, with minimum to no delays. Britain could divert troops to Asia, but this only concerns the Japanese.

Italo Balbo will have to stay in Germany's good graces, since USSR is likely to collapse. Italy will have all the time to integrate its colonial holdings, though.

 

[pls don't ban me]

Italy staying neutral helps Germany a lot. No North African adventure, no need to invade Greece, so whenever Barbarossa was supposed to start in the original plans, it will start then, with minimum to no delays. Britain could divert troops to Asia, but this only concerns the Japanese.

Italo Balbo will have to stay in Germany's good graces, since USSR is likely to collapse. Italy will have all the time to integrate its colonial holdings, though.

about that, it has been proven that Barbarossa would be delayed anyway because of the bad weather, altought yes there will be more advance, maybe a fall of leningrad but stalingrad is a bit of a fixed point. In no scenario Hitler could win against the urss considering the help they were receiving from the USA. also there won't be the italians( 300.000 men circa) in the russian campaign so there might be a little difference.


edit: i noticed i wrote twice urss instead of USA, mb

 

[Geekhis Khan]

I know there is the VIVA BALBO TL but it has been abandoned without giving me any answer. Don't be shy and write everything you want to suggest, correct and answer or talk about this Thread. Balbo is one of my favorite characters of modern history and i think he deserved more than a suspicious( despite proved being an accident) death.

Yes, sorry about that. Family crisis hit and I didn't abandon it by choice. One day, perhaps, I'll get back to it. In the meantime I'm going with something with notably lower stakes as there's enough non-magnificent bastardry IRL at the moment.

 

[walmart]

Did Balbo oppose the declaration of war on France or just the pre-war German alliance ?

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Did Balbo oppose the declaration of war on France or just the pre-war German alliance ?

Balbo hated the Germans in general and the Nazis in particular. He opposed the Axis from the start. He had no love for the French and would have opportunistically bit a chunk out of France (and Tunisia) if he could get away with it, but was much more likely to support the Allies (he was an Anglophile). I could see him making a go at the Balkans.

 

[PolishMagnet]

Would the WAllies be willing to just surrender the Balkans like that? OTL you had the Little Entente, which while it was a failure, showed that there was passing interest in preserving order there.

Perhaps if Italy is pro-WAllies, there can be some sort of secret conference (like a WAllies version of Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) which creates a new, pro-Italian order in the Balkans? Italy gets Dalmatia and an expanded Albania, Bulgaria gets North Macedonia, but Yugoslavia and Greece remain neutral. Yugoslavia is forced to accept like Czechoslovakia in 1938.

 

[pls don't ban me]

Yes, sorry about that. Family crisis hit and I didn't abandon it by choice. One day, perhaps, I'll get back to it. In the meantime I'm going with something with notably lower stakes as there's enough non-magnificent bastardry IRL at the moment.

np, real life before anything else.

Would the WAllies be willing to just surrender the Balkans like that? OTL you had the Little Entente, which while it was a failure, showed that there was passing interest in preserving order there.

Perhaps if Italy is pro-WAllies, there can be some sort of secret conference (like a WAllies version of Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) which creates a new, pro-Italian order in the Balkans? Italy gets Dalmatia and an expanded Albania, Bulgaria gets North Macedonia, but Yugoslavia and Greece remain neutral. Yugoslavia is forced to accept like Czechoslovakia in 1938.

well, in OTL before Mussolini entered the war and showed how much the italian army was useless, Britain feared the italian entry and was trying to make Benny stay neutral at least, with a Tunis giveaway and some other colonies. if Balbo starts talks of joining the allies i can see Churchill and Roosevelt considering to let him take what he wants from Yugoslavia, under the guarantee of not destroying it so France could not protest much.

@Geekhis Khan also, it might be just my idea, but i think that the future of Bulgaria in almost every ww2 scenario is tied to what italy does( the marriage of tsar Boris III was basically an informal alliance, in OTL it was Mussolini to convince him to finally join the axis.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

@Geekhis Khan also, it might be just my idea, but i think that the future of Bulgaria in almost every ww2 scenario is tied to what italy does( the marriage of tsar Boris III was basically an informal alliance, in OTL it was Mussolini to convince him to finally join the axis.

I forget what I was going to do with Bulgaria. He'd invaded (or tried to invade) Yugo as of the untimely end of my TL, and would have added added Istria, the Dalmatian coast, and the former Venetian islands to Italy, Kosovo to their Albanian "protectorate", and made client states from Slovenia and Croatia among other changes.

 

[Lalli]

Wouldn't Slovenia had been just annexed to Italy or then just being part of Croatia? Independent Slovenia would be totally dependent on Italy anyway.

 

[pls don't ban me]

Wouldn't Slovenia had been just annexed to Italy or then just being part of Croatia? Independent Slovenia would be totally dependent on Italy anyway.

well, yes but actually no.
if Slovenia was made as a client state the Slovenians would be more willing to cooperate since they would still have a degree of autonomy, also they would feel protected since as independent would mean to be a red target for Austria or Croazia.
If they would have been annexed, well in the first period they would face the forced italianizazion and will make them angry, ths sparking guerrillas most likely. same if you give them to Croazia.
Although @Geekhis Khan , i think that Balbo won't try to take croatia, it would risk war with britain, so he might just focus on taking the coast and leave a small port to them or leaving them part of what remains of the Yugoslavian kingdom( Croatia,Bosnia,Serbia,Kosovo). One thing that leaves me thinking: will Balbo impose a fascist regime and make Yugoslavia a forced ally( to avoid possible communist uprising, the allies would approve this) and actually help the federation get stable or would they leave it to die?

 

[LegionoftheUnitedStates]

No Mussolini means no Italian involvement in the war, and least not at first and probably not on the Axis side.

The butterflies of this are huge. even assuming France gets knocked out of the war, the strategic calculus for Britain and the Commonwealth changes enormously.

Was there anyone active in the Fascist Party who both wanted war with the Allies and would have been able to succeed Mussolini?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Without Italy in the war maybe Hitler would be more serious about moving through Spain to get at the French colonies if France doesn't surrender like IOTL. He didn't force the issue with Franco IOTL, but without having to work with Vichy over making sure French colonies were defended against the British (which he didn't think the Spanish could do better than Vichy with it's fleet) he could grant Spain or rather Franco his colonial wishlist and bring him into the war. That was the big hangup at Hedaya. Without Italy making it seem like the Mediterranean was handled perhaps given that France may well stay in the war ITTL and force Germany to maintain a large commitment in all of France to properly occupy it, the entire strategic calculus that Hitler made IOTL could be radically different.

 

[pls don't ban me]

No Mussolini means no Italian involvement in the war, and least not at first and probably not on the Axis side.

The butterflies of this are huge. even assuming France gets knocked out of the war, the strategic calculus for Britain and the Commonwealth changes enormously.

Was there anyone active in the Fascist Party who both wanted war with the Allies and would have been able to succeed Mussolini?

there are only 3 possible successors to mussolini without going into ASB in that period:

• Balbo, Anglophile and germanophobe, war with yugoslavia very likely
• Ciano, neutral/germanophobe
• The king -> return to democracy-> allies

 

[Lalli]

Without Italy in the war maybe Hitler would be more serious about moving through Spain to get at the French colonies if France doesn't surrender like IOTL. He didn't force the issue with Franco IOTL, but without having to work with Vichy over making sure French colonies were defended against the British (which he didn't think the Spanish could do better than Vichy with it's fleet) he could grant Spain or rather Franco his colonial wishlist and bring him into the war. That was the big hangup at Hedaya. Without Italy making it seem like the Mediterranean was handled perhaps given that France may well stay in the war ITTL and force Germany to maintain a large commitment in all of France to properly occupy it, the entire strategic calculus that Hitler made IOTL could be radically different.

Hitler was more intrested about Soviet Union, not so much about Africa. And Spain is not easy place to conquer speciality if you go through Pyrenees.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Hitler was more intrested about Soviet Union, not so much about Africa. And Spain is not easy place to conquer speciality if you go through Pyrenees.

Hitler was only free to invade the USSR with France fully out and cooperative, Italy in the war to distract Britain in the Mediterranean, and Britain hobbled by having convoys not able to run through the Mediterranean. There was some pressure on Hitler to focus on a Mediterranean strategy IOTL, but certain contradictions were irresolvable so he bailed on that option. The biggest obstacle was getting Spain in without Vichy territory and Hitler refused to upset Vichy; ITTL though if France doesn't surrender because Italy is out and they fight on from Africa with the fleet Hitler is going to be freaking out about that threat since the Allies can invade as soon as they reorient themselves and get US supply lines set up. Spain wouldn't have to be conquered ITTL if Hitler was willing to grant Franco's territorial demands:

Francisco Franco - Wikipedia, la enciclopedia libre

es.wikipedia.org

At first Hitler rejected Franco's offer, but the difficulties he encountered in his war against England made him think about the advisability of Spain joining the conflict. On August 8, 1940, Berlin drew up a report on the costs and benefits of Spain's entry into the war. Spain, without the help of Germany, would hardly support the war effort. With this provision, the advantage was centered on the suppression of Spanish mineral exports to England, Germany's access to English-owned iron and copper mines in Spain, and control of the Strait of Gibraltar.. The drawbacks would be a foreseeable English occupation of the Canary and Balearic Islands, the expansion of Gibraltar, the possible connection of the British forces with the French in Morocco and the need to supply Spain with basic necessities and fuel (since Spain is supplied these matters in third countries); also, the need to rearm it, adding the difficulties that the narrow roads and the different gauge would mean for the transport of war material. 298 A second detailed study of the help Spain would need to enter the war discouraged the Germans. That summer there were numerous contacts between Spain and Germany. On September 13, 1940, Serrano Suñermade a trip to Nazi Germany as Franco's special envoy. Serrano informed the Germans that Spain would enter the war on the German side in exchange for aid, arms and territories in North Africa, where Spain could re-establish an empire. 299 In this meeting Serrano would leave a message for Hitler and videotaped by the Germans, in which he said:

Franco's Falangist Spain brings to the Führer of the German people its love and friendship, and its loyalty of yesterday, today and forever.
Ramon Serrano Suner message, Germany, September 1940. 299

According to Reinhard Spitzy, who was secretary and advisor to Joachim von Ribbentrop (German Minister of Foreign Affairs), Minister Ribbentrop was not surprised by Serrano Suñer's offer to enter the war and gave the Spanish envoy to understand that, « after all, Spain was nothing more than a German wimp "and that" Hitler was not too interested in what Spain needed to take part in the war. " 299 Franco's enthusiasm for Spain's entry into the war, which with the subsequent partition of Africa would fulfill his imperialist ambitions, contrasted with the skepticism shown by Germany. 300Franco's ambitions for his war gains were French Morocco, a part of Algeria, and the expansion of the Spanish Sahara and the territory of Equatorial Guinea . 301 There was also talk in Hendaye of handing over French Catalonia to Spain . 302 There were also voices in the hard wing of the Falange calling for the annexation of Portugal . 303 However, these ambitions clashed with the Germans, who, in exchange for their military aid, demanded the delivery of one of the Canary Islands , Fernando Poo and Annobón , in exchange for French Morocco.304 Despite these disagreements, in a letter from Franco to Serrano Súñer in September 1940, he stated that "he blindly believed in the Axis victory and was completely determined to enter the war." 305 On October 16, 1940, Franco appointed his third government, in which Serrano Suñer replaced Beigbeder in Foreign Affairs, considered an allydophile . 309

On October 23, 1940, Franco set out, together with Serrano Suñer, from San Sebastián to France, where the Hendaye interview between Hitler and Franco took place. Although Franco left a long time in advance, he arrived five minutes late for the appointment, which caused him great annoyance. 299 According to Preston, “Franco attended the historic meeting with Hitler in Hendaye in the hope of obtaining a suitable reward for his repeated offers to join the Axis. His propagandists would later claim that Franco brilliantly contained the Nazi hordes in Hendaye by keeping a menacing Hitler at bay. In fact, the examination of the encounter does not indicate an inordinate pressure on the part of Hitler in favor of the Spanish belligerence. 308

According to Reinhard Spitzy, Hitler went to the meeting thinking that Franco had a duty to enter the war on the German side and because of all the favors that Germany did to Franco during the Spanish civil war. 299 He also claimed that Hitler, during the conversation, succeeded in persuading Franco to enter the war as an ally of Germany. 299 Serrano Suñer would claim that Franco accepted Hitler's proposal to enter the war and that, in return, he wanted some African territories and protectorates. 299 Serrano would also claim that, for an hour and a half, Franco was explaining to Hitler his ambitions and that the German did nothing but yawn over and over again throughout that time. 299Serrano also commented that, faced with the expectations of being able to annex Morocco , Franco was like "a hopeful child, fond of what had always been his desire: the world in which he had been trained as a great military leader." 309

The meeting went on for several hours. Franco's colonial demands, which clashed with other Hitler interests, were not met by him; and Hitler did not get flexibility from Franco in his claims. Both would comment on the meeting in a disparaging tone. Hitler would say that "with these guys there is nothing to do" and that he would rather have three or four teeth pulled than to talk to Franco again, whom he called a "Latin charlatan." Later he would comment to Mussolini that Franco "had become Generalissimo and head of the Spanish state only by accident. He was not a man who was up to the problems of political and material development of his country. 310 GoebbelsHe noted in his diary that “the Führer does not have a good opinion of Spain and Franco. [...] They are not at all prepared for war; They are hidalgos of an empire that no longer exists. 311 For his part, Franco would comment to Serrano Suñer: «These people are intolerable; they want us to go to war for nothing. " 312 In spite of everything, a protocol was established that "constituted a formal commitment on the part of Spain to go to war alongside the Axis." 313

According to Preston, in November 1940 Franco "took several dangerous and unnecessary initiatives, which can only be interpreted as an indication of his readiness to enter the war on the Axis side." 311 A plan was even drawn up for the capture of Gibraltar, called Operation Felix , which was not finally executed due to the Spanish reluctance to go to war before being prepared. 314 However, the Spanish economic situation was desperate, which forced the Caudillo to seek help from the United States , through shipments of wheat made through the Red Cross . These shipments were subject to the maintenance of neutrality by Spain. 315 Franco then began to play two-cushion. 31

 

[pls don't ban me]

Hitler was only free to invade the USSR with France fully out and cooperative, Italy in the war to distract Britain in the Mediterranean, and Britain hobbled by having convoys not able to run through the Mediterranean. There was some pressure on Hitler to focus on a Mediterranean strategy IOTL, but certain contradictions were irresolvable so he bailed on that option. The biggest obstacle was getting Spain in without Vichy territory and Hitler refused to upset Vichy; ITTL though if France doesn't surrender because Italy is out and they fight on from Africa with the fleet Hitler is going to be freaking out about that threat since the Allies can invade as soon as they reorient themselves and get US supply lines set up. Spain wouldn't have to be conquered ITTL if Hitler was willing to grant Franco's territorial demands:

Francisco Franco - Wikipedia, la enciclopedia libre

es.wikipedia.org

I agree, but there is only one thing i would like to point out: Hitler never wanted italy to actually join the war.
don't know exactly why, but he was happy when Mussolini told him that italy won't have been ready for war before 1942.

 

[Don Corleone]

Any TL where Mussolini dies earlier is good in my book.

 

[Garrison]

about that, it has been proven that Barbarossa would be delayed anyway because of the bad weather, altought yes there will be more advance, maybe a fall of leningrad but stalingrad is a bit of a fixed point. In no scenario Hitler could win against the urss considering the help they were receiving from the USA. also there won't be the italians( 300.000 men circa) in the russian campaign so there might be a little difference.


edit: i noticed i wrote twice urss instead of USA, mb

Yeah the idea that the Greek campaign delayed Barbarossa seems to have been British propaganda to try and put a positive spin on a fairly disastrous campaign. It's also hard to imagine how the Ostheer could do better in the first few weeks of Barbarossa with the relatively modest addition of the troops that would have been committed to the Middle East and they would have put yet more strain on a logistics train that was already at full stretch.

With no Mid East campaign the British may be able to reinforce their position in the Far East.

 

[pls don't ban me]

Yeah the idea that the Greek campaign delayed Barbarossa seems to have been British propaganda to try and put a positive spin on a fairly disastrous campaign. It's also hard to imagine how the Ostheer could do better in the first few weeks of Barbarossa with the relatively modest addition of the troops that would have been committed to the Middle East and they would have put yet more strain on a logistics train that was already at full stretch.

With no Mid East campaign the British may be able to reinforce their position in the Far East.

the only thing the Greek campaign changed was the trust of Hitler toward paratroopers.