Mussolini Invades Portugal and Spain

Divide and conquer.
Mussolini only had to divide and conquer. Once he landed troops (in a Franco-controlled port) he only had to help Franco conquer one province at a time. With Franco's army maintaining control of Morrocco and that would have been a stepping stone to the other African colonies.
With sea lanes secured, Franco's armies could easily have found an excuse to invade (much smaller) Portugal.
Now the next question is whether the UK would have backed the Portugese with arms and ammunition. Considering how far the Brits were behind the Germans (technologically) I doubt if a small force of British soldiers would have been able to prevent a Franco/Italian/German invasion of Portugal.
Consider that Britain was still trying to recover from the Great Depression and did not seriously begin rearmament until 1938. Consider that in 1940, Canadian industry was pleading for British patterns and tools, but that was before British factories had finished tooling-up for WW2.
I vote that Mussilini could easily impose puppet fascist governments in Spain and Portugal.
 
Why would he do this? Mussolini had a close personal relationship with Franco, and continually tried to convince him to join the Axis (Hitler was ambivalent at best about Spanish participation in the war effort - some historians like Paul Preston speculate that Franco was more interested in having Spain join the Axis than Hitler was :eek:). I could see Franco invading Portugal, however, mainly because Franco planned on doing so whenever he joined the Axis - this being after he signed a non-aggression pact with Portugal, mind you. :rolleyes: He might also send some of his battle-hardened African troops to help Italy out in Egypt and Libya, provided Vichy remains in control of North Africa.
 
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Divide and conquer.
Mussolini only had to divide and conquer. Once he landed troops (in a Franco-controlled port) he only had to help Franco conquer one province at a time. With Franco's army maintaining control of Morrocco and that would have been a stepping stone to the other African colonies.
With sea lanes secured, Franco's armies could easily have found an excuse to invade (much smaller) Portugal.
Now the next question is whether the UK would have backed the Portugese with arms and ammunition. Considering how far the Brits were behind the Germans (technologically) I doubt if a small force of British soldiers would have been able to prevent a Franco/Italian/German invasion of Portugal.
Consider that Britain was still trying to recover from the Great Depression and did not seriously begin rearmament until 1938. Consider that in 1940, Canadian industry was pleading for British patterns and tools, but that was before British factories had finished tooling-up for WW2.
I vote that Mussilini could easily impose puppet fascist governments in Spain and Portugal.

Oh do explain in detail how Germany and Italy are going to get supplies through past the joint title holder of largest Navy in the world? I can certainly see that Britain would be unable to prevent invasion but but prevent conquest and go on to win? Easily, the myth of Britain becoming magically disarmed between the wars is just that, a myth. The Portuguese army was sufficient force to defend its territory.

Further the issue in such a war for the belligerents is the potential for blockade. This would be bad news for Spain, bad news for Germany and bad news for Italy. This ignores the fact that neither Germany nor Italy were ready for a European war (though you can legitimately argue that the Italians are more ready in 1936 than they will be in 1940 that still isn't very ready) . The likely stance of France also needs to be considered.

Finally why would a Spanish rightist leader of any faction consider compromising their own future security in this manner? It does not even have to be Franco in charge, a move against Portugal makes little sense for the Spanish unless and until Germany is much stronger and France neutralised.
 
To quote an old Republican song from the Spanish Civil War "Spain is not Abyssinia."

He'd get his ass kicked.
People talk about Guadalajara, but they seem to forget Majorca, Malaga or Santander.

In any case, I doubt he'd try to conquer Spain and if he tried, he'd be in for a bloody guerilla war. It wouldn't work. They could take their overseas territories, but I doubt Britain and France would allow it.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Iberia is mountains dude. Napoleon couldn't crack that nut, so I don't see how Mussolini could conquer it. The islands, maybe (there's a thread about Majorca somewhere I recommend), but mainland? No, not gonna happen.
 
I like Magnum's general scenario, although Portugal seems to be a bridge too far. Making some kind of "legitimate" Spanish government in a culturally/geographically distinct area with Spain's overseas colonies into a puppet state seems somewhat doable if Italy is playing Iran to the Republican Assad.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
I like Magnum's general scenario, although Portugal seems to be a bridge too far. Making some kind of "legitimate" Spanish government in a culturally/geographically distinct area with Spain's overseas colonies into a puppet state seems somewhat doable if Italy is playing Iran to the Republican Assad.

Yeah, Magum's scenario is pretty good. Boots on the ground might be a step to far, though it's not out the question, but spreading it to Portugal seems more like a long term plan than an immediate solution. Italy allying with Portugal would be best for Italy in an invasion and occupation of Spain (perhaps under the promise of Galicia) as then you have an army that at least knows what they're doing. Italy would probably fragment Spain into it's cultural and ethnic lines, like Yugoslavia. I do ponder, if Italy sides with the Republicans, would the allies side with Franco?
 
Yeah, Magum's scenario is pretty good. Boots on the ground might be a step to far, though it's not out the question, but spreading it to Portugal seems more like a long term plan than an immediate solution. Italy allying with Portugal would be best for Italy in an invasion and occupation of Spain (perhaps under the promise of Galicia) as then you have an army that at least knows what they're doing. Italy would probably fragment Spain into it's cultural and ethnic lines, like Yugoslavia. I do ponder, if Italy sides with the Republicans, would the allies side with Franco?

Given how Portugal wasn't a fan of the Spanish Republic IIRC, I could imagine "boots on the ground" being too far for them as well. If both governments side with the Republic for whatever reason (Mussolini because Franco is allied to Hitler, Portugal for ???) and actually send troops, I'm thinking Franco is going to have a real problem.

But amputating parts of Spain now that they have no "legitimate" government, now that's sneaky and more doable. Would the Portuguese annex Galicia outright or maintain a puppet "Republican" government there? Italy would be smart to maintain a puppet Catalan state rather than stupidly try to annex it, given how much-strong France is in between, but Portugal is right next door.

The thing with a puppet Catalonia is that the anarchists would be very strong there, and although my class book Transatlantic Fascism attributes fascism's ideological origins in part to revolutionary syndicalism, the fascists aren't going to be friendly with the anarchists.

Would Italy attempt to maintain some kind of neutered "anarchism in one country" quasi-state in order to buy off the anarchist elements or would they simply try to purge them in favor of pro-Italian elements? Magnum's scenario referenced Mussolini intervening only once the Republic has collapsed and key people are in place, so maybe the anarchists get purged or subjected to a Uriah Gambit en masse? The latter could making Catalonia difficult for Italy to dominate long-term.
 
Hitler definitely wouldn't have allowed this.

Is Hitler capable of stopping it, especially early on in his regime?

Of course, you do raise a good point. Hitler will support Franco and the Spanish Civil War might turn into an intra-fascist proxy war. If Hitler wants to be particularly aggressive, he could demonstrate against Austria again (like what caused a war scare in 1934) to distract Mussolini from Iberia.

However, TTL assumes that the Stresa Front holds and that Mussolini successfully prevented the Anschluss. Although Hitler can claim some earlier victories, this would be a second failure in that department. It might weaken his position considerably.

Hmm...if everybody involved plays their cards right, some kind of earlier version of Molotov-Ribbentropp in which Hitler allows Mussolini and Portugal to bite chunks off Franco's Spain in exchange being allowed to annex Austria? Hitler's fixation was with Lebensraum in Russia, so the Mediterranean is less of a concern. Franco, assuming he survives this, might be PO'd and might go seeking new patrons.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Given how Portugal wasn't a fan of the Spanish Republic IIRC, I could imagine "boots on the ground" being too far for them as well. If both governments side with the Republic for whatever reason (Mussolini because Franco is allied to Hitler, Portugal for ???) and actually send troops, I'm thinking Franco is going to have a real problem.

But amputating parts of Spain now that they have no "legitimate" government, now that's sneaky and more doable. Would the Portuguese annex Galicia outright or maintain a puppet "Republican" government there? Italy would be smart to maintain a puppet Catalan state rather than stupidly try to annex it, given how much-strong France is in between, but Portugal is right next door.

The thing with a puppet Catalonia is that the anarchists would be very strong there, and although my class book Transatlantic Fascism attributes fascism's ideological origins in part to revolutionary syndicalism, the fascists aren't going to be friendly with the anarchists.

Would Italy attempt to maintain some kind of neutered "anarchism in one country" quasi-state in order to buy off the anarchist elements or would they simply try to purge them in favor of pro-Italian elements? Magnum's scenario referenced Mussolini intervening only once the Republic has collapsed and key people are in place, so maybe the anarchists get purged or subjected to a Uriah Gambit en masse? The latter could making Catalonia difficult for Italy to dominate long-term.

Actually giving Portugal a reason to side with the Republic is a hard task. The the whole Majorca issue goes badly between Franco and Mussolini (Mussolini refuses to leave). If this conflict starts around the end of the civil war but before the fall of the republic, then Mussolini can do what he wants (Hitler had pretty much given him free reign for the Mediterranean and Franco wasn't exactly the most approachable figure). Galica would probably get out-right annexed if Italy start making moves against continental Spain and inflict some real damage (It's very unlikely but trouble with Spain could shift Italy to the west to Iberia then East to the Balkans). I'm saying republic but I mean more those leaning to Italy. It's certain that Italy would start puppet governments, fragmenting Spain on ethnic lines to weaken it's overall power, though I very much doubt an Anarchist one would arise. They'd probably flee to the hills and start a violent guerrilla war against the occupiers.
 
Actually giving Portugal a reason to side with the Republic is a hard task.

Hmm...could Salazar think that Franco's Spain might attack Portugal? Alternatively, Franco leading the Nationalists wasn't a given. Some other Nationalist leader might give Salazar the willies in a way that Franco didn't OTL.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Hmm...could Salazar think that Franco's Spain might attack Portugal? Alternatively, Franco leading the Nationalists wasn't a given. Some other Nationalist leader might give Salazar the willies in a way that Franco didn't OTL.

Salazar was scared that Franco would become too powerful and attempt to pull an Iberian Union. If this fear was somehow realized (The Italians just so happen to 'intercept' a telegram about an invasion of Portugal), then Salazar would probably push into Iberia. A war between Portugal and Spain would be good for Italy as they wont's actually have to do much, most the fighting between Portugal and Spain.
 
Salazar was scared that Franco would become too powerful and attempt to pull an Iberian Union. If this fear was somehow realized (The Italians just so happen to 'intercept' a telegram about an invasion of Portugal), then Salazar would probably push into Iberia. A war between Portugal and Spain would be good for Italy as they wont's actually have to do much, most the fighting between Portugal and Spain.

Why do you think that? If he feared Franco, he didn't show it. Salazar sent volunteers to the nationalists, allowed them to use portuguese soil for logistical commuications and sent them supplies. Why, if he feared Franco? Why did Salazar signed a non-agression pact that included a clause about mutual deffence against third parties invading the peninsula with Franco in 1939 (ratified in 1942) that lasted till 1978? Salazar and Nicolás Franco, Franco`s brother, were buddy-buddy. There is a lot of videogame non-sense in this thread, anyway. :confused:
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Why do you think that? If he feared Franco, he didn't show it. Salazar sent volunteers to the nationalists, allowed them to use portuguese soil for logistical commuications and sent them supplies. Why, if he feared Franco? Why did Salazar signed a non-agression pact that included a clause about mutual deffence against third parties invading the peninsula with Franco in 1939 (ratified in 1942) that lasted till 1978? Salazar and Nicolás Franco, Franco`s brother, were buddy-buddy. There is a lot of videogame non-sense in this thread, anyway. :confused:

I misread my sources, so ignore some of what I said (I messed up, I apologize for confusion). Okay, so Spain and Italy have a conflict over the Majorca islands. Spain has no way of getting there, and Italy now has an airbase. Franco turns to Salazar for help, who gives him a a couple of ships or planes to land/bomb the airbase. The Italians get a clue and get boots on the ground to stop the attacks, turning on Franco. If Spain fragments during the conflict (which is likely given how weak it is), Portugal might annex Galica under the idea of protecting it. Britain and France now have another European Allie.

Bear in mind the nonsense of this thread is more trying to make this scenario workable. After all, why on earth would Mussolini want to even try and invade Spain (bar the Majorca islands)?
 
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