I was going to start a new Mussolini thread, but this'll do.
I still see Mussoloni going after Greece either way. In a long war Italy could overcome Greek resitance without a doubt, the Allies would be too busy to do anything about it.
They also wouldnt want to send their scarce forces to fight Italy if Mussolini hasnt sided with Hitler. I also see both the Allies and Stalin seeking to win over Italy to their cause as tensions in the grand alliance start to appear. Russia quite sensibly didn’t want to hand over Eastern-Europe to the West for nothing given the amount of blood & treasure they’d spent taking it, the West for it’s part was willing to work with Fascist Spain & Portugal during the Cold War so Mussoloni may be able to hag on to his gains.
Yugoslavia would be reduced or replaced by Greater Serbia or some-such, and would be drawn closer to the Soviet camp, Greece and Albania would be kept under tight control and Italianised forcefuly. An ageing Mussolini would be half-hated half-admired as a veteran statesmen and machiavellian strategist whose career would be carefully studied by those interested in gaining and keeping power. By the late 50's his personality cult would be of epic proportions.
Italy's colonies in Africa would be retained but ‘’communist uprisings’’ would be common and would be repressed with utmost brutality. I can see Fascist Italy hanging on in Africa grimly just like Portugal did IRL.
After Mussolini dies well Italy could go on as a one party state without a God-like paramount leader just like the Soviets and Chinese did. Of course that depends on what state Italy is in when Mussolini dies.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=80077