Mussolini does not invade France, but invades Malta and Tunisia instead.

Weather was lousy in Dunkirk and there were hundreds of Spitfires and Hurricanes covering the ships, flying from Britain (although Dowding didn't want to waste his precious fighters in the continent), look at the 3 cruisers and 6 destroyers sunk in Crete or the Polish and French detroyer lost in Norway (also in bad wweather). Flying weather over Malta is quite decent.
In dunkirk there were not just a few navy ships to sink, there were thousands of small craft evacuating thousands of men. This was not the case in Malta (or in Crete). IEven in Dunkirk 18 destroyers were sunk or damaged.
 

Esopo

Banned
The axis stopped at el Alamein not for lack of Supplies, but because of millions of mines, tens of thousands of troops, over a thousand tanks and planes and thousands of cannon.
In 1940 the Brits were very poorly equipped with few and obsolete planes, the axis could have easily captured Mersa Matruh to use it for some supplies and captured Alexandria then ports along the route to Iraq.

and how was supposed italy to supply 250.000 men from mersa matruh to baghdad, when graziani had problems to supply his forces in sidi el barrani?
 
Its not so easy. In north africa the problem was that the italian army was completely unprepared to stop a tank attack, in greece the problem was weather (mussolini attacked in the worst moment possible), numbers (thanks to Visconti Prasca, italian invading forces had no where the numerical superiority they had in north africa. Actually, when the offensive began, the greeks were roughly the same number of italians. In november, the greeks were MORE than italians, and in december the italians were more than greeks), crappy logistics and most of all terrain. The italian army in albania was qualitatively just a bit better than the greek one, but it was forced to fight a offensive war while insufficiently supplied and on a difficult terrain. When the regio esercito had to fight a defensive battle in albania, it fought actually well, like it did during ww1. Trench warfare was what the italian army in ww2 was able to do. In france, it was actu
ally impossible to overcome a defense line like the alps.

Except that the Italian Army in WWII was not very good at defensive warfare, either. The Italians were incapable of large-scale combined-arms warfare, and made poor use of what numbers and good equipment they had. The flaws here in various scenarios against an enemy as relatively weak as Greece offer no indication whatsoever that the Italians will suddenly magic up an invasion of Malta that works ITTL. They *had* overwhelming force in Egypt, in Greece, in France, and they failed to make good use of any of it.

There were never 300,000 Italians in Libya and Wavell had little to do with the success, which was more due to O'Connor. Italian cannon could not pierce the Matida and the Brits used heavy naval guns and dominated the air. How many Germans did it take to dominate over a half million Brits and French in Dunkirk, thanks to air superirority. There were 100,000 Brits against 30,000 Japs with 200 tanks and air and naval superiority in Malaya and they bit the dust. Planes ruled, since they covered the ships artillery and destroyed fortifications, supply lines, etc, and at the time tehre were 4 Gladiators iand a couple of Hurricanes in transit n Malta.

With the Italian and German planes suggested, the fleet was secure. Radar would eventually render the fleet 10 times more effective, enabling it to fight at night.

I think most of you are underestimating the effect of surprise in Malta and Tunisia, which the Duce wasted completely attacking France. Italian ships and planes could have approached unchallenged, much like the Japs did in PH. Declaring war in London a few minutes before the attack. Mussolini could have even held negotiations with the allies considering joining them as in 1915.

Yes, you're right, there were merely 36,000 British against 150,000 Italians, giving the Italians an overwhelming preponderance of numbers, aircraft, tanks, and the like had Graziani ever known how to use any of it properly. The Germans did not dominate the British, they attempted the fool's gold quest of attempting to destroy ground troops with air power and like all other attempts at this it invariably failed. They at least had the excuse of being the first to try it. The Italians had enough with the right leadership, to have completely smashed the British. Instead they had very poor leadership, a factor that tends to make superficially overwhelming numbers into a hindrance more than a help.

The axis stopped at el Alamein not for lack of Supplies, but because of millions of mines, tens of thousands of troops, over a thousand tanks and planes and thousands of cannon.
In 1940 the Brits were very poorly equipped with few and obsolete planes, the axis could have easily captured Mersa Matruh to use it for some supplies and captured Alexandria then ports along the route to Iraq.

No, they stopped at El Alamein the first time for lack of supplies, as Rommel yet again was so focused on winning the battle that he didn't pay attention to anything else. Their supply lines were overstretched, and the British were outnumbered against the Italians in North Africa much worse than would be the case in this hypothetical Malta landing and turned that into a great victory. The Italians may well wind up being the British springboard to another morale-boosting tactical victory that strategically amounts to a great big nothing.

Interesting, too, that when the Allies win it's only due to disparity of numbers. When the Axis have disparity in numbers and lose that's due to um, uh, no explanation. :rolleyes:
 

Esopo

Banned
Except that the Italian Army in WWII was not very good at defensive warfare, either. The Italians were incapable of large-scale combined-arms warfare, and made poor use of what numbers and good equipment they had. The flaws here in various scenarios against an enemy as relatively weak as Greece offer no indication whatsoever that the Italians will suddenly magic up an invasion of Malta that works ITTL. They *had* overwhelming force in Egypt, in Greece, in France, and they failed to make good use of any of it.

It is true that until 1942 they were uncapable of combined-arms warfare, but they werent always bad at defensive. When they werent forced to face tanks (which they werent equipped to stop), the italian army was able to resist. One example is Cheren, in eritrea. In greece the front collapsed because the army spent all its strenght against the greek mountain trenches and then was unable to stop the counter attack. But when the greeks tried (being numerically superior) to defeat the italian forces which still resisted in albania, they were repelled. Other examples of effective defensive actions are Bir El Gobi, or Anfidaville.
And did the italians have overwhelming forces in greece? when? where? they just didnt. In france no, army could ever overcome a defense line on the maritime alps, doesnt matter how strong. It was mussolini's madness to think that it was possible to accomplish something that since 1870's was always considered impossible (italy's plans for a war against france in 1914 were to send troops on the rhine, not to attack on the alps).
The only places where the italians had a big superiority were egypt and east africa. But in both those places the british had technologically superior armies, which couldnt be defeated just by numbers.
 
It is true that until 1942 they were uncapable of combined-arms warfare, but they werent always bad at defensive. When they werent forced to face tanks (which they werent equipped to stop), the italian army was able to resist. One example is Cheren, in eritrea. In greece the front collapsed because the army spent all its strenght against the greek mountain trenches and then was unable to stop the counter attack. But when the greeks tried (being numerically superior) to defeat the italian forces which still resisted in albania, they were repelled. Other examples of effective defensive actions are Bir El Gobi, or Anfidaville.
And did the italians have overwhelming forces in greece? when? where? they just didnt. In france no, army could ever overcome a defense line on the maritime alps, doesnt matter how strong. It was mussolini's madness to think that it was possible to accomplish something that since 1870's was always considered impossible (italy's plans for a war against france in 1914 were to send troops on the rhine, not to attack on the alps).
The only places where the italians had a big superiority were egypt and east africa. But in both those places the british had technologically superior armies, which couldnt be defeated just by numbers.

At Keren they were dug in against British forces who had a very limited avenue of attack. In Ethiopia proper they were completely incapable of defense against a relatively small number of British regulars and a relatively large number of Ethiopian irregulars. The OP relies on them conducting the kind of amphibious operation against determined resistance that they never did IOTL, so the burden of proof is on the people who claim that the Italians could do ITTL what they never did IOTL when they had the chance and that they could win the kind of battle ITTL that they never did IOTL.
 

Esopo

Banned
Yes, you're right, there were merely 36,000 British against 150,000 Italians, giving the Italians an overwhelming preponderance of numbers, aircraft, tanks, and the like had Graziani ever known how to use any of it properly

Italian aircrafts and tanks were so inferior to the british ones that the numbers actually didnt matter. In the battle of aghedabia the numerically superior italian tanks were easily destroyed by the fewer british matilda. If you dont buy the liddel hart theory of italian tanks running away because-italians-are-coward, the reason must be a remarkable armour and gun disparity.
 
Somehow the German dominance at Dunkirk has become a German defeat brought on by outnumbered and reluctantly committed RAF fighters.
 

Esopo

Banned
At Keren they were dug in against British forces who had a very limited avenue of attack. In Ethiopia proper they were completely incapable of defense against a relatively small number of British regulars and a relatively large number of Ethiopian irregulars. The OP relies on them conducting the kind of amphibious operation against determined resistance that they never did IOTL, so the burden of proof is on the people who claim that the Italians could do ITTL what they never did IOTL when they had the chance and that they could win the kind of battle ITTL that they never did IOTL.

Yes, cheren was a relatively effective defense because of the favourable ground. In somalia the ground (plains) prevented them from opposing a real resistance against tanks.
I dont think that italy could take malta, mainly because mussolini wasnt himself convinced the fleet could do it. He even proposed to land a force in Tolone, but gave up the idea because of the lack of trasport ships.
 
Italian aircrafts and tanks were so inferior to the british ones that the numbers actually didnt matter. In the battle of aghedabia the numerically superior italian tanks were easily destroyed by the fewer british matilda. If you dont buy the liddel hart theory of italian tanks running away because-italians-are-coward, the reason must be a remarkable armour and gun disparity.

Or alternately the reason might be that Italian leadership was incapable of using its troops effectively due to the Italian military producing leaders promoted for cronyism, not competence. Meaning that so long as Italian leaders were promoted on that factor Italian generals were unworthy of the men that served under them.

Yes, cheren was a relatively effective defense because of the favourable ground. In somalia the ground (plains) prevented them from opposing a real resistance against tanks.
I dont think that italy could take malta, mainly because mussolini wasnt himself convinced the fleet could do it. He even proposed to land a force in Tolone, but gave up the idea because of the lack of trasport ships.

And yet against Ethiopian irregulars the Italians again proved extremely ineffectual and overestimated Allied armies which were not really all that formidable in numbers so much as in the ability to successfully bluff.
 
Italian aircrafts and tanks were so inferior to the british ones that the numbers actually didnt matter.

That's not entirely true. The M13/40 was considered good enough that the British equipped an entire battalion with captured versions (6 RTR). In comparison with what the British was using it didn't reach the same standard... but not so much so that it couldn't make a useful contribution on the battlefield.
 
Somehow the German dominance at Dunkirk has become a German defeat brought on by outnumbered and reluctantly committed RAF fighters.

The LW failed for a number of reasons including but not limited to

1. bad weather

2. soft sand limiting the impact of bombs

3. pilots having little experience trying to hit naval targets

4. aggressive british defense

5. pilots completely exhausted... at the start of dynamo the average german fighter pilot had flown 150-160 sorties over the previous 19 days (some of the stuka pilots had flown even more than that)

6. machines exhausted from 19 days of combat and high tempo operations reducing german sortie rates

7. airfields not displaced forward enough reducing patrol time over the bridgehead
 
Or alternately the LW failed simply due to the reality that air power alone can never defeat any ground troops with a cohesive will to resist. This is a reality that's been hammered into armies over and over and over again and stubbornly and willfully resisted by air forces in all that time, but at least the Germans were the first ones to try that and so had the excuse that nobody had ever tried it before.
 
Or alternately the reason might be that Italian leadership was incapable of using its troops effectively due to the Italian military producing leaders promoted for cronyism, not competence. Meaning that so long as Italian leaders were promoted on that factor Italian generals were unworthy of the men that served under them.



And yet against Ethiopian irregulars the Italians again proved extremely ineffectual and overestimated Allied armies which were not really all that formidable in numbers so much as in the ability to successfully bluff.


I think it also has to due with the fact that outside some strutting buffoons like Mussolini himself there weren't many Italians who wanted to be in the war in the first place. I don't think it is the only reason but it is a fact to be considered. As far as Malta goes I tend to agree with you. I really can't see the doing anything except flailing around ineffectually until the British shows up to chase away the Italian Navy and then bombards whatever troops the Italians have landed while landing some marines. Flailing around ineffectually is about all the Italians managed to do OTL and I have no idea why they would do anything else in this one.
 
I was amused at the suggestion of Italians in Iraq and Iran.

It takes me back to reading William Slim's memoir (From Defeat Into Victory). In May '41, Slim was commanding an Indian Army Division in the Middle East. In fact, it had fought in Syria, Iraq, and Iran by that point.

So let's just assume that Malta falls; let us assume that the British have somehow been turfed unceremoniously out of Egypt; do not think that there would then be no opposition in Iraq, or Syria, or Iran.

The Indian Army was the largest all-volunteer force of the war, and for all the difficult terrain in Iran, it has a better supply line to Iraq and Syria than the Italians would, I daresay; and they're good troops.

In fact, the Indian Army was mostly trained and equipped for 1) maintaining order in India itself and 2) deploying to the Middle East.
This was part of the problem in facing the Japanese in Burma; the jungle wasn't what the Indian Army was trained for.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Please check about the Italian conquest of British Somaliland: clear Italian victory against the British army, accomplished without any German help whatsover. Just to confute the (outlandish and offensive :(:mad:) claims of some that the Italian military cannot but "flail ineffectively" and fail, whatever the odds and circumstances. There are definite limits to how much you can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (at least, unless you want to peddle nasty bigot prejudices about the inborn military ineptitude of a people).
 

iddt3

Donor
Please check about the Italian conquest of British Somaliland: clear Italian victory against the British army, accomplished without any German help whatsover. Just to confute the (outlandish and offensive :(:mad:) claims of some that the Italian military cannot but "flail ineffectively" and fail, whatever the odds and circumstances. There are definite limits to how much you can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (at least, unless you want to peddle nasty bigot prejudices about the inborn military ineptitude of a people).
It's not a prejudice if it's true. The Italian People didn't want to be in the War. The Italian army weren't prepared for the War. The Italian Economy wasn't able to supply the needs of the Italian army in the War. They had mediocre doctrine at best, sub par command structure, mediocre to bad logistics, and laughably bad leadership. This is not to say the Italians were incapable of better, or are inherent military incompetents. Simply that the Military that Italy went to War with in 1940 was singularly ill prepared for the task at hand.
 
and how was supposed italy to supply 250.000 men from mersa matruh to baghdad, when graziani had problems to supply his forces in sidi el barrani?


ALEXANDRIA, AND PORTS CAPTURED ALONG THE ROUTE, PLEASE READ WHAT HAD BEEN SAID MULTIPLE TIMES.

How did the British supply Egypt through Iran for a while?
 

iddt3

Donor
ALEXANDRIA, AND PORTS CAPTURED ALONG THE ROUTE, PLEASE READ WHAT HAD BEEN SAID MULTIPLE TIMES.
The issue is getting to Alexandria in the first place. Also, what ports along the route? Why are you assuming Alexandria would be in any shape to be used when captured?
 
It's not a prejudice if it's true. The Italian People didn't want to be in the War. The Italian army weren't prepared for the War. The Italian Economy wasn't able to supply the needs of the Italian army in the War. They had mediocre doctrine at best, sub par command structure, mediocre to bad logistics, and laughably bad leadership. This is not to say the Italians were incapable of better, or are inherent military incompetents. Simply that the Military that Italy went to War with in 1940 was singularly ill prepared for the task at hand.

ditto for the British people, who were saved by America
 

iddt3

Donor
ditto for the British people, who were saved by America
As an ardent Amerophile, I'm going to unfortunately have to say no. The British people saved themselves in 1940 with the Battle of Britain, though any cross channel invasion attempt was doomed. Whether they could have actually won the war on their own is doubtful, but we didn't "save" them. As for the British army, it had lots of institutional issues, but so did the American Army, some were Ironed out during the War, others were not. Neither army is really comparable to the Italian army, except perhaps in the Far East during the first year of the war there, and both armies recovered from that, unlike the Italian army, which was at it's very best middling, out side of a few standouts like the Italian Frogmen.
 
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