Muslim Theocracy in Mindanao

Anytime after 1946, What if and how could there be a Muslim theocracy in Mindanao, the Philippine south? If there was such a thing, what would it be like? Iran? Or Taliban Afganistan?

Various groups could make such a thing happen, MILF, Abu Sayyaf, etc. If the Abu Sayyaf took power, I guess it would be similar to Taliban Afganistan but I'm not sure. What would happen if these groups came to power?

How would an inedependent Muslim theocratic Mindanao affect the Southeast Asian region? What other states would recognize it?
 
Can we have a point of divergence earlier than 1946? If so, the Americans could arrange for two separate states as well as one...they knew what it was like to deal with Muslim insurgents during their occupation, as did the Spanish. Partition always worked well for British interests; why not for American ones?
 
Can we have a point of divergence earlier than 1946? If so, the Americans could arrange for two separate states as well as one...they knew what it was like to deal with Muslim insurgents during their occupation, as did the Spanish. Partition always worked well for British interests; why not for American ones?

Okay then, before 1946.
 
A theocracy- trouble is it's not in the interests of the rest of the states in the region. The Philippines isn't going to want a theocracy in Mindanao, Malaysia and Indonesia won't want a theocracy because they'll both (especially Indonesia) be interested in it coming under their domination. Of course this won't come about immediately since the Indonesians are still fighting the Dutch and the Malaysians are still negotiating independence from the UK but they will be factors which will influence the long-term survival of the state in the long run.
 
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If we posit a breakdown of order and control in the wake of Marcos' fall rather than the relatively smooth transition we had, would it be possible for a rebel movement to take de facto control over Mindanao? I'm guessing the MNLF would be the best candidate. THat 'state' could look for recognition and support from the Gulf States and would, in that quest, play up its Muslim identity. Christian Filipino and Chinese immigrants would find life rather unpleasant, and the more this separatist body depends on funds and remittances from the Gulf, the more the radical Islamic factions gain the upper hand. A slow slide towards nationalist Islamism becomes noticeable in the late 90s and by 2004, non-Muslims are effectively tolerated minorities, not equal citizens.

Of course this would mean a permanent state of de-facto war with Manila, but that's not that different from OTL, it just goes a good deal better for the insurgents.
 
Muslim Theocracy in Mindanao by 1946 in ATL would result to a massive genocide to the Christian Filipinos in Mindanao and after that Mindanao would try to invade Palawan and then a genocide to the Christian Filipinos in Palawan. The result is Philippines will exist without Mindanao and Palawan.
 
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