Muslim/EDL Riot (Or Massacre), 2012

[MerryPrankster]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/apr/30/six-plead-guilty-plot-edl?CMP=twt_fd

Apparently the only thing that prevented an attack on an English Defense League rally was their arriving at the rally late.

What if they'd gotten there on time and actually attacked the rally? I used the word "riot" because if the EDL really are a bunch of thugs they might put up a real fight, but explosions can panic even the most hardened. If they run, well historically most of the great slaughters have taken place during routs.

You'd have at best a major communal riot with deaths and at worst a terrorist massacre coming a year (perhaps less) after those big riots in Britain.

Effects?

 

[ingemann]

The aftermattch would have been incredible unpleasant, if the British Muslim community was lucky the EDL would react with violence and national wide riots. If they don't EDL will suddenly become a legitime political movement.

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

The aftermattch would have been incredible unpleasant, if the British Muslim community was lucky the EDL would react with violence and national wide riots. If they don't EDL will suddenly become a legitime political movement.

Indeed. It's a very nasty potential PoD to occur.

What I'd expect is a lot more public pressure from the Government for moderate Muslims to stand up and denounce extremism: perhaps another Munich-style speech from Cameron. Baroness Warsi will probably get wheeled out. There could well be public inquiries into the ghettoisation of Islamic communities in places like Tower Hamlets.

The double-dip recession is likely worsened a bit. Maybe UKIP is able to win the Rotherham by-election?

And I'd be surprised if there weren't retaliatory attacks by EDL-types upon Islamic communities, which could perhaps spiral into tit-for-tat violence. That would certainly be unpleasant, should it occur, though I'm not sure if the situation is tinder-boxish enough to spiral into a full cycle of sectarian violence.

 

[Thoresby]

This could have been very nasty, most people avoid the EDL because they rightly recognise them as a cross between the BNP and a bunch of football hooligans. But this sort of attack would completely change the dynamic, suddenly you'd have a.) a load of EDL martyrs and b.) a lot of people would start to think the EDL has a point and support them. Unlike the moment when most people recognise that two wrongs make a mess to be avoided.

 

[TeaDaemon]

The first thing to remember with this is that both the EDL and the 'islamic' extremists are tiny, if vocal minorities.

The 700 members of the EDL present at that rally constitute a fair proportion (probably 30% if not more) of their total numbers. The extremists are not part of any organised terrorist movement like the IRA, or even the INLA, although they were linked peripherally to others with similar aims.

Any reprisals by the EDL will take the form of relatively small, isolated attacks. If groups of them try going into areas like Sparkhill or Sparkbrook in Brum (where these attackers came from) to cause trouble, then they're likely to get their arses kicked by the locals (who although they're not violent terrorists, will definitely work together to defend themselves and their families). So, localised disturbances and the odd small to medium riot will probably happen in various parts of the country.

I can't see the EDL getting a large membership boost or any sort of mainstream credibility. From what I've seen of them they're a bunch of disorganised louts out to shout at people they don't like and beat them up if they get chance. Similarly, I can't see large numbers of Muslims in the UK being inspired to take part in terrorism, although I could see more or less organised vigilante groups springing up to defend areas against EDL aggression. I imagine the Police will take a fairly firm line against both sides, but if the 2011 riots are anything to go by they might find themselves working fairly hard for a while, and probably having to be on the lookout for flashpoints for months if not years afterwards.

Overall, I don't expect this incident would have resulted in any Earth-shattering changes, but it could result in a lot of people's lives being made fairly unpleasant for a while.