Murat joins the 6th coalition in 1813

[History thinker]

Joachim Murat was a Napoleonic marshal who had become king of Naples in 1808 and later joined the 6th coalition in 1814 following a year or so of negotiations. Ultimately, he lost his throne a year later after siding with Napoleon in 1815 in the hundred days campaign.

But Murat had already been in secret negotiations with the 6th coalition ever since he arrived back in Naples in 1813 following the disastrous Russian campaign. So what if Murat and the 6th coalition immediately reached an agreement which he could keep his throne if he joined the coalition against Napoleon and allowed for the ex Bourbon rulers of Naples to rule Sicily (while Murat would remain king of Naples). What would change in the German campaign of 1813 with Murat not fighting for Napoleon? How would this impact the rest of the Napoleonic wars and would it encourage Napoleon to accept the Frankfurt proposals (since he'd have an extra enemy to worry about)?

Also, could this impact Italian unification?

 

[Wendell]

This is a really interesting idea, but I think it needs more fleshing out. What prompts the change? Does the 1813 campaign start going worse for Napoleon earlier? There's also the question of what Murat could get in negotiations and whether the peace settlement would reflect what was promised.

 

[alexmilman]

This is a really interesting idea, but I think it needs more fleshing out. What prompts the change? Does the 1813 campaign start going worse for Napoleon earlier? There's also the question of what Murat could get in negotiations and whether the peace settlement would reflect what was promised.

It can even be that he is accepted by the allies but after the dust is settled, kicked out. IIRC, there was an attempt to do this to Bernadotte but he had a very strong backing. Who would be Murat’s “sponsor”?

 

[Wendell]

It can even be that he is accepted by the allies but after the dust is settled, kicked out. IIRC, there was an attempt to do this to Bernadotte but he had a very strong backing. Who would be Murat’s “sponsor”?

Alexander II?

 

[alexmilman]

Alexander II?

A little bit too early for AII: he was not even born.

You probably meant AI but what would be the incentive for him? Bernadotte proved his usefulness at the most critical moments (allowing Alexander to move troops from the Swedish border in 1812 and pretty much saving Berlin in 1813; for Dannewitz he got the highest Russian, Prussian and Austrian military awards ) and it was convenient to have as a neighbor him rather than some mentally unstable member of Vasa dynasty who may try to get Finland back. Plus, it seems that they went well on a personal level (Bernadotte could be quite charming when he wanted). None of this would be applicable to Murat and for AI the Naples was not an important issue worthy of arguing about.

 

[History thinker]

It can even be that he is accepted by the allies but after the dust is settled, kicked out. IIRC, there was an attempt to do this to Bernadotte but he had a very strong backing. Who would be Murat’s “sponsor”?

Perhaps Bernadotte, since he was a fellow marshal who became king of Sweden. Austria also, as I think in OTL they didn't mind having Murat has king of Naples, although the british complained a fair bit. As for Alexander 1st of Russia or other great powers I'm not so sure.

 

[Wendell]

A little bit too early for AII: he was not even born.

You probably meant AI but what would be the incentive for him? Bernadotte proved his usefulness at the most critical moments (allowing Alexander to move troops from the Swedish border in 1812 and pretty much saving Berlin in 1813; for Dannewitz he got the highest Russian, Prussian and Austrian military awards ) and it was convenient to have as a neighbor him rather than some mentally unstable member of Vasa dynasty who may try to get Finland back. Plus, it seems that they went well on a personal level (Bernadotte could be quite charming when he wanted). None of this would be applicable to Murat and for AI the Naples was not an important issue worthy of arguing about.

You're right. I meant Alexander I. The interesting thing here is if France keeps the "natural borders" in some sort of compromise peace as the OP suggests. Is, under those circumstances, a united Italian peninsula as a counter weight to France more valuable to Austria and/or Prussia than a divided Italy would be?

 

[Wendell]

Perhaps Bernadotte, since he was a fellow marshal who became king of Sweden. Austria also, as I think in OTL they didn't mind having Murat has king of Naples, although the british complained a fair bit. As for Alexander 1st of Russia or other great powers I'm not so sure.

Austria might let Murat keep southern Italy, but more than that is going to be tougher I suspect.

 

[History thinker]

Austria might let Murat keep southern Italy, but more than that is going to be tougher I suspect.

He would be king of Naples, which is what I intend him to be in this thread, nothing else. Note: if you actually read my original post, you would notice that one of the conditions for him to remain king would be to allow for the ex Bourbon rulers to reign over Sicily (which would then become it's own independent kingdom). So Murat would literally be only in control of mainland southern Italy

 

[alexmilman]

Perhaps Bernadotte, since he was a fellow marshal who became king of Sweden. Austria also, as I think in OTL they didn't mind having Murat has king of Naples, although the british complained a fair bit. As for Alexander 1st of Russia or other great powers I'm not so sure.

Bernadotte himself was ..er... under discussion at least for a while. I'm not sure if at any point his position was seriously endangered but, anyway, he was not a major player. If Austria is ready to back up Murat seriously, probably this would be at least 50% chance because it is unlikely that Russia and Prussia would object (or at least object seriously). Which leaves Britain, a very serious factor, and perhaps Bourbon France.

So probably it boils down to how useful Murat manages to be for the allies in 1813. Accomplishing something serious would be a big bonus.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

It can even be that he is accepted by the allies but after the dust is settled, kicked out. IIRC, there was an attempt to do this to Bernadotte but he had a very strong backing. Who would be Murat’s “sponsor”?

Talleyrand backed him at Vienna, Metternich was sleeping with Caroline Murat. Both statesmen were interested in having a third power to prevent the Bourbons/Habsburgs becoming too powerful in Italy

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@Yanez de Gomera

 

[Wendell]

He would be king of Naples, which is what I intend him to be in this thread, nothing else. Note: if you actually read my original post, you would notice that one of the conditions for him to remain king would be to allow for the ex Bourbon rulers to reign over Sicily (which would then become it's own independent kingdom). So Murat would literally be only in control of mainland southern Italy

I read your post, and at the end of it you were wondering about consequences for Italian unification. Maybe Dresden goes slightly better for Napoleon and much worse for the Austrians. Perhaps the Austrians then work on flipping Murat?

I could see Murat's Neapolitan forces pinning down the army of Italy, and perhaps flipping them. That's tens of thousands or more forces unavailable to Napoleon in the German campaigns the rest of the year, right?

 

[History thinker]

I read your post, and at the end of it you were wondering about consequences for Italian unification. Maybe Dresden goes slightly better for Napoleon and much worse for the Austrians. Perhaps the Austrians then work on flipping Murat?

I could see Murat's Neapolitan forces pinning down the army of Italy, and perhaps flipping them. That's tens of thousands or more forces unavailable to Napoleon in the German campaigns the rest of the year, right?

Austrians losing Dresden badly could happen if Davout was there helping Napoleon instead of him being sent to Hamburg. But that would also mean he would be there for the rest of the German campaign.

As for Italy, I would really see Eugene being pinned down and having to retreat to the Alps by the time of Leipzig.

 

[moro]

I doubt that Napoleon woud accept Frankfurt propose in any case, afterall in OTL his situation was desperate and he didn't accept.
I think that Murat can remain king of Naples if Metternich think that he woud was controlable and usefull for hold divided and weaken italians states... but the probility didn't is at his favor ( this's why he join Napoleon in 1815).
if he hold Naples after congress of Vienna coud have interessing ramification in italian unification period...i cannot immagine how he and his son react to '21 and '48 upheavels...

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

I doubt that Napoleon woud accept Frankfurt propose in any case, afterall in OTL his situation was desperate and he didn't accept.

One of the reasons he didn't accept is that wasn't binding as the British hadn't agreed to the proposal.

The added loss of the Republican conquests of Italy that he made early in his career would gave him concern as the Imperial government would lose significant prestige from this.

Plus there's also the issue that Napoleon believed that he could win. Napoleon almost did in otl despite his issues with cavalry and logistics. At one point the French Army came within a hair's breadth of capturing the Tsar, Prussian King, and their staff officers. If luck is a bit more on Napoleon's side, he'd have won that way.

I think that Murat can remain king of Naples if Metternich think that he woud was controlable and usefull for hold divided and weaken italians states... but the probility didn't is at his favor ( this's why he join Napoleon in 1815).

Murat initially remained in power even after napoleon's defeat. It was the Hundred Days scenario that convinced the Congress of Vienna to oust him. Though Louis XVIII added fuel to the fire by forging letters alleging that Murat planned to continue support for Bonapartism. He then personally funded an expedition to restore the Sicilian Bourbons to the Neopolitan throne.

If Murat doesn't join Napoleon during the Hundred Days, he could likely keep his Kingdom.

i cannot immagine how he and his son react to '21 and '48 upheavels...

Murat would probably be dead by that time. Though his son would probably ride the liberal wave to try and use it to take the Italian Crown. With how Caroline and Joachim opened their ports to the British they could likely expect heavy British investment into their Kingdom which would help it prosper. It would probably be very wealthy once its modernization is actually properly managed as opposed to being half-assed like it was under the Bourbons. The pope would also be scared of the Neopolitans as he'd probably view the Kingdom with deep suspicion. The Kingdom would probably be a magnet for ex-Bonapartists and Cabonari. Though the Murats might actually not support them officially as to avoid the Habsburgs' and Metternich's ire. Though in the later 1848 Revolutions when say the Pope is ejected from Rome, you might see a multi-faceted struggle to unify the peninsula much like what happened with Austria and Prussia within Germany.

The Murats being closest to Rome might try to charge in and take advantage of the chaos caused by the "Roman Republic." Though there's also the added risk of an angry Sicily who historically the old Angevin Kings had to expend quite a considerable number of resources to fight off. Sicily might have French backing under the Bourbons of Spain and France and likely would try to attack the Nepolitans.

If Napoleon III is in power like in otl, I can imagine that he'd be pleased as the divided Italy would be something he'd be quite adept at dividing and conquering. A modernize Naples actually gives Sardinia-Piedmont a rival to worry about which would make the Savoyards much more cautious about their approach during the Italian Revolutions.

 

[Aghasverov]

Would anyone trust Murat?

 

[moro]

Murat initially remained in power even after napoleon's defeat. It was the Hundred Days scenario that convinced the Congress of Vienna to oust him. Though Louis XVIII added fuel to the fire by forging letters alleging that Murat planned to continue support for Bonapartism. He then personally funded an expedition to restore the Sicilian Bourbons to the Neopolitan throne.

If Murat doesn't join Napoleon during the Hundred Days, he could likely keep his Kingdom.

I suppose that, if he try to stay calm and quite, he can hold the trhone. but it's still difficult, he didn't have a good renow.

Murat would probably be dead by that time. Though his son would probably ride the liberal wave to try and use it to take the Italian Crown. With how Caroline and Joachim opened their ports to the British they could likely expect heavy British investment into their Kingdom which would help it prosper. It would probably be very wealthy once its modernization is actually properly managed as opposed to being half-assed like it was under the Bourbons. The pope would also be scared of the Neopolitans as he'd probably view the Kingdom with deep suspicion. The Kingdom would probably be a magnet for ex-Bonapartists and Cabonari. Though the Murats might actually not support them officially as to avoid the Habsburgs' and Metternich's ire. Though in the later 1848 Revolutions when say the Pope is ejected from Rome, you might see a multi-faceted struggle to unify the peninsula much like what happened with Austria and Prussia within Germany.

i read that his second son was more conservative, you can confirm? if his first son died as otl, he ( the second) woud be king in 1848.

 

[moro]

Would anyone trust Murat?

maybe borbonic Sicily woud be a stick and the crown a carots for forced his obbedience ?

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

maybe borbonic Sicily woud be a stick and the crown a carots for forced his obbedience ?

Not to mention the Papacy. I feel like the prospect of a liber Naples right within the Vatican's backyard would scare it into action. You might see the Pope actually seriously invest into the Papal Army and getting government's crap together in terms of secular administration.

Bourbon Sicily though would likely be a haven for Italian legitimists and dissidents against the Murat government.