14th February – 4th April 1942 – French North Africa and the Fall of Vichy

Garrison

Donor
14th February – 4th April 1942 – French North Africa and the Fall of Vichy

The political situation in French North Africa had steadily deteriorated ever since the self-destruction of so much of the Marine Nationale at Mers-el-Kebir and Toulon. Not only had the fate of the French fleet undermined the credibility of Vichy in many people’s eyes, there was also a practical impact in that there was now a severe shortage of vessels to escort convoys heading for North African ports, made worse by the fact that the sailors and officers of the Marine Nationale who remained with Vichy were viewed with deep suspicion by Germany and even by the Vichy government they served, and this constant scrutiny of their loyalty only grew worse after Admiral Darlan’s defection to the Free French. This further undermined the already low morale of the crews of the ships the Marine Nationale could muster, compounded by increasing issues with fuel and supplies. Given the state of the Vichy fleet he British were no longer concerned about the possibility of provoking Vichy into hostile action, and after Syria having acted as a staging post for Axis aircraft, in clear violation of Vichy’s supposed neutrality, they were unwilling to accept assurances that no materiel intended for Axis forces in Libya were being shipped on French flagged vessels. As a result the British took to intercepting Vichy shipping in the Mediterranean, with ships that had defected to the Free French being attached to the patrol groups where possible [1].

This increased British belligerence was also fuelled by ULTRA decrypts and spies in France that meant they were well aware that as the situation deteriorated in Libya there had been considerable pressure on Vichy to allow its North African ports to be used for supplies intended for the Axis forces, though given the available transportation and road network between Tunisia it is dubious as to how much of a contribution this could have made to the defence of Tripoli even if it Vichy had acquiesced to the demands. Once Libya fell a certain panic set in with Mussolini and he was now talking in terms of a counteroffensive being launched, using Tunisia as the springboard. He even went so far as to suggest that with the British on the border of its North African colonies it was time for Vichy to join the war on the Axis side. These ideas met with a mixed reception in Berlin, where von Kleist and the General Staff wanted to simply write off North Africa as an exercise in futility and focus all their efforts on renewing the offensive on the Eastern Front. Hitler however seems to have been at least willing to contemplate the idea, mostly because he was concerned that the British might turn their attention to the Balkans and the vital Ploesti oilfields if their position in North Africa was secured, and of course this would also free the British to reinforce their position against the Japanese, though again some in Berlin believed this outcome would actually be a net benefit to the Reich [2].

The British were in fact already preparing to dispatch Australian New Zealand and Indian forces from North Africa to Malaya and Burma even before Tripoli finally fell, while still retaining forces in the Mediterranean theatre for further operations against Italy. Many of these troops had fought during Operation Yari whilst others would see service in the South East Asian theatre when Montgomery went on the offensive. These changes had reduced the overall forces available in North Africa during the spring of 1942, but this did not deter the British from preparing operations against French North Africa, with the whole hearted support of de Gaulle and the Free French, who had been agitating for the swift overthrow of the local Vichy regimes as a next step in North Africa even before the battle of Sirte., The British were willing to accommodate in the interests of removing any possibility of French North Africa becoming an assembly area for fresh Axis attacks and to bolster the legitimacy of the Free French.

Even as the Free French were pressing for military action they were also reaching out to administrations of the North African colonies, emphasizing that their only hope to avoid the humiliation of foreign occupation and prevent the unnecessary deaths of French soldiers was to declare themselves for Free France and allow Free French forces to enter their territory as liberators. It was emphasized that there might be unfortunate consequences for those officers and officials who chose to make a stand in the name of the Vichy regime. These exhortations resonated in Tunisia especially, where it was no secret that they might find themselves dragged into the front line of the war as Vichy tried to curry favour with Berlin by allowing German and Italian troops to establish forward bases for a fresh offensive against the British. Ironically By April 1942 even Hitler had cooled on the idea of assembling a new army in Tunisia and in Rome the General Staff was now more concerned about the possibility of an invasion of Sicily than trying to chase a lost cause in Libya. The sole exception was the plan for an airborne assault on Malta, which continued to grind forward despite much dismay among the General Staff [3].

These conditions largely explain why the British and Free French forces were able to cross into Tunisia on the 24th of February with little opposition and rapidly advance on Tunis, which surrendered with almost indecent haste on the 6th of March in the face of what was little more than a few companies of Allied troops with a modest contingent of tanks leading the way. This led to a further decline in the morale of troops in Algeria and Morocco, with some local garrisons choosing to go over to the Free French, some of whom had cause to regret as it took time for the Allies to regroup and launch a fresh advance from Tunisia and many troops remained loyal to Vichy, out of sense of duty as much as any love for Vichy. The Allies faced an especially hostile reception in Algeria as many there had blamed the British for the fate of the French Fleet. The Royal Navy itself helped undercut this resistance by staging amphibious landings at Oran and Algiers itself on the 17th of March, while large parts of the available Vichy forces had been moved to the Tunisian border to defend from what seemed an inevitable attack there. The British and Free French troops suffered some significant casualties, in no small part owing to the deficiencies in the coordination of the landings between the Royal Navy and the RAF. These failing allowed Italian aircraft operating out of Sicily to attack the naval convoys, though fortunately the Regia Aeronautica attacks were also poorly organized and failed to seriously disrupt the landings. Attacks from Tunisia launched on the 18th combined with the fall of Algiers led to the formal surrender of Algeria on the 21st of March after face saving negotiations with the political and military leadership [4].

In the aftermath of the rapid collapse of Tunisia and Algeria the Vichy French government began to panic. The leadership in Rabat assured Vichy that Morocco would not capitulate without a fight, but inevitably there were rumours circulating that they were in fact in negotiations with the Free French or the Americans about declaring for the Allies and these provoked the Vichy government into ordering the removal of senior officials and military officers allegedly involved in the negotiations, regardless of the paucity of evidence against them. This effort was poorly executed and led to serious unrest in Morocco, destroying whatever loyalty to Vichy those officials might have retained. The unfortunate army units trying to carry out the orders from Vichy had either been defeated or switched sides by the 27th of March and a Free French delegation flew into negotiate terms, alongside several representatives from the US Army and Department of State, who were regarded as guarantors for whatever terms were agreed by the officials in Rabat, much to the chagrin of de Gaulle. This diplomatic action constituted the only direct US involvement in North Africa, though the supply of material from America had played an important part in the campaign. Morocco formally surrendered on April 2nd, 1942, leaving the Allies, or more accurately the British, in undisputed control of North Africa and the Middle East, and the Royal Navy dominating the Mediterranean. The Germans and the Italians were still not quite willing to admit defeat and under Goering’s insistence the last desperate throw of the dice in Malta remained [5].

By the time Morocco surrendered the fate of Vichy had already been sealed. Hitler had been dubious about the regime ever since Mers-el-Kebir and all the French efforts to appease the Germans since had only served to convince the likes of Fritz Todt that so much more could be obtained if French industry were placed under ‘efficient’ German management. The obviously token resistance in Tunisia finally made-up Hitler’s mind and he ordered that the Vichy zone in France be occupied by the Wehrmacht. This operation was contingency the Wehrmacht had been preparing for almost since the Armistice was signed in 1940. The plan, codenamed Case Anton had been refined ever since and the occupation forces in France had little difficulty carrying it out even at short notice. Case Anton was launched on the 28th of March and concluded by the 4th of April, encountering little resistance from Vichy French forces who were swiftly disarmed and interned. Although Vichy continued to exist as political entity in theory, in practice they were now little more than administrators for German policy in France, which became increasingly harsh as the Germans grew concerned about the prospect of an Allied attack on France.

With the thin veneer of legitimacy Vichy had maintained taken away there was a steady uptick in resistance activity and many of the last colonial holdouts in Africa and Asia defected to the Free French, though even at this point some refused to countenance co-operating with ‘traitors’. Despite Todt’s assurances French industry fared no better under German control than it had prior to the 4th of April. Indeed, without Vichy as a conduit through which some raw materials could be purchased production fell. The full occupation of France was yet another burden for the Wehrmacht, with the number of potential targets for Allied assaults now stretching from Norway to Greece.

For the Allies the fall of Vichy simplified the strategic options available to them, which did not mean that there weren’t heated discussions over the future direction of the war [6].

[1] OTL the British remained circumspect about getting into confrontations with Vichy French warships so the convoys to North Africa went unmolested, not so ITTL.

[2] The General Staff in Berlin are already seeing Case Blue as their last real chance to win the war outright.

[3] The Malta plan has taken on a life of its own at this point, moving forward even as the strategic logic crumbles.

[4] There is no Afrika Korps to keep the Vichy regimes in line, and less hostility to the British overall.

[5] Basically trying to stop Algeria defecting.

[6] Vichy has fallen 6 months sooner, meaning a faster build up of the resistance and another headache for the Wehrmacht as they prepare for Case Blue. On the Allied side the Americans are even less keen on the ‘soft underbelly’ than OTL and they are eyeing up a landing in France quite intently…
 

Garrison

Donor
Well, I expect the entire French colonial empire to have joined the Allies, except Indochina for obvious reasons
it might take a little while for some of them like Madagascar, until they are certain that the Japanese won't invade before the Free French and the British can free up forces to defend them. I think you can assume that the Free French will be putting their resources into providing reassurances and dealing with any holdouts.
 
it might take a little while for some of them like Madagascar, until they are certain that the Japanese won't invade before the Free French and the British can free up forces to defend them. I think you can assume that the Free French will be putting their resources into providing reassurances and dealing with any holdouts.
Madagascar is really really far from the farthest Japanese IOTL conquests (ie. Burma, Indonesia or Malaya), let alone Japan itself, and the Japanese are overstretched and have conquered less ITTL, and the Force Z is still there in the way (of any Japanese sortie in the Indian Ocean), so I don't think French authorities in Madagascar would fear any Japanese action. And if they do, it's an absurdly unreasonable fear.

IOTL, there was never a real Japanese threat on Madagascar but with the speed and scope of Japanese initial advance, it looked like Japan could basically carry on advancing as far as it wanted for a few months so, the fear was understandable.
ITTL it's different.
 

Garrison

Donor
Madagascar is really really far from the farthest Japanese IOTL conquests (ie. Burma, Indonesia or Malaya), let alone Japan itself, and the Japanese are overstretched and have conquered less ITTL, and the Force Z is still there in the way (of any Japanese sortie in the Indian Ocean), so I don't think French authorities in Madagascar would fear any Japanese action. And if they do, it's an absurdly unreasonable fear.

IOTL, there was never a real Japanese threat on Madagascar but with the speed and scope of Japanese initial advance, it looked like Japan could basically carry on advancing as far as it wanted for a few months so, the fear was understandable.
ITTL it's different.
True but in OTL it didn't take much to create a bit of a panic and the people running the French colonies haven't lasted this long by taking risks. They will doubtless want guarantees, about their own personal positions if nothing else.
 
True but in OTL it didn't take much to create a bit of a panic and the people running the French colonies haven't lasted this long by taking risks. They will doubtless want guarantees, about their own personal positions if nothing else.
As soon as Case Anton is executed the armistice is breached and there is no more (Vichy) French government. The former Vichy colonies are no longer honour or armistice bound to a legitimate [1] French government. All in a position to do so will join the fight against the axis to liberate France.

Also, well done on the allied takeover/liberation of North Africa.

[1] Vichy was a legitimately constituted government (however unwelcome) which is one of several reasons that many of the French colonies stayed loyal to Vichy.
 
Well aside from mopping up a few holdouts, the Free French need to take this time to gear up, integrate the North African troops, and train up for Millennium. Hopefully Sicily will serve to paint a clear picture which American officers have what it takes to command.
 
With Free France the obvious distant fourth, where do the British place currently among the Allies given their resume throughout the war?
 
With Free France the obvious distant fourth, where do the British place currently among the Allies given their resume throughout the war?
Currently top dog of the Western allies. US has made important but indirect contributions (Atlantic patrols, lend lease, supplies), and the British have repelled Germany in the Battle of Britain, defeated Germany and Italy in Africa (with empire and Free French help) and liberated French North Africa. And on the way won against an Iraqi uprising, and beaten the French navy ( though probably that's best forgotten for now).
Assuming Churchill and Roosevelt get on as OTL, they will want to free Europe early and it looks much more doable early 1942 ITTL than OTL.
The biggest change is that US ground troops will learn how to fight in Sicily and Italy (and maybe the Aegean) rather than North Africa. This might well result in them getting a very poor combat reputation [1] and creating serious friction at command level [2].
[1] Imagine Fredendall in Sicily or at Anzio!
[2] Monty's not there, so maybe not quite as bad, but OTL other British generals in Tunisia weren't very impressed by early US performance. It's not really a big surprise that a rapidly expanded untried force would take a while to learn, but it would have been very apparent next to veteran troops.
 

Garrison

Donor
With Free France the obvious distant fourth, where do the British place currently among the Allies given their resume throughout the war?
As @CaptainCalvert suggests they are at the top, at least as far as the Western Allies are concerned. In due course Britain's stronger position will cause some friction between London and Washington.
 
As @CaptainCalvert suggests they are at the top, at least as far as the Western Allies are concerned. In due course Britain's stronger position will cause some friction between London and Washington.
With War likely ending in 1944 and BOB not happening, I wonder if UK becomes a Superpower.(Perhaps at the expense of Soviets?)
 

Garrison

Donor
With War likely ending in 1944 and BOB not happening, I wonder if UK becomes a Superpower.(Perhaps at the expense of Soviets?)
More a case of much gentler and better managed retreat from the empire, though the Commonwealth may be stronger given Australia and Canada haven't had to align themselves with the USA.
 
More a case of much gentler and better managed retreat from the empire, though the Commonwealth may be stronger given Australia and Canada haven't had to align themselves with the USA.

If the UK doesn't have so much war debt and can hold onto key pieces like Singapore, and perhaps Kuwait and a Hong Kong-like holding in India on permanent basis....it may not be #1 economy but could remain a healthy #2 for a very long time.
 

Garrison

Donor
If the UK doesn't have so much war debt and can hold onto key pieces like Singapore, and perhaps Kuwait and a Hong Kong-like holding in India on permanent basis....it may not be #1 economy but could remain a healthy #2 for a very long time.
I haven't really fully developed my ideas for post war but I do see the Commonwealth evolving a much stronger economic component post war.
 
17th– 28th April 1942 – Carrier Battles – Part I – Japan - Quest for the Decisive Battle

Garrison

Donor
17th– 28th April 1942 – Carrier Battles – Part I – Japan - Quest for the Decisive Battle

Although the Imperial Japanese Navy’s operations in the Indian Ocean and Pacific happened in the same time frame as Operation Yari, any impression of a co-ordinated campaign is illusory. As discussed previously there were attempts to create a combined operation plan, but these foundered in the face of the bitter rivalry between the IJA and IJN. When confronted with the Army’s request for substantial naval support in their planned landing behind the British lines at Khota Baru the IJN was unimpressed and countered with proposals for far more radical operations, either an amphibious assault on Singapore itself or a sweep around the Malayan peninsula to land on the west coast behind the Kuala Lumpur position. These plans all implicitly assumed that the Royal Navy would be drawn out from Ceylon so that they could be destroyed by carriers of the Kido Butai. The IJN was also intent on conducting a fresh attempt to seize Wake Island, a prize in itself but also an opportunity to inflict a defeat on the US Pacific Fleet.

To The IJA planners such as Colonel Tsuji this smacked of the navy trying to usurp control of operations in South East Asia The army was adamant that the more limited landing at Kuala Dungun was what was required and made no secret of the fact that they felt that a landing in Singapore or the west coast of Malaya was an unnecessary overextension, which is quite the statement given the scope of the plan they did embrace. They were willing to provide some troops to support the Wake Island operation, though the IJA planners saw this is as very much a secondary operation. The IJN response to this rebuff was to go ahead with their own plans regardless and offer the minimum possible support to the amphibious assault on Kuala Dungun, most importantly there would be no carrier borne air cover for the operation, those ships were needed elsewhere [1].

The operation in the Indian Ocean would now take the form of a large-scale raid, targeting the ports of Singapore, Rangoon and Jakarta on Java as well as any British convoys that could be intercepted. Crucially this plan envisioned the fleet carriers attached to the operation would not take part in the bombardment, they would be held back to deceive the Royal Navy into believing that the attack force was only being covered by fighters from one of the IJN’s light carriers. Taken by surprise the Royal Navy warships, including whatever carrier strength they could muster, would be annihilated. If they refused to be drawn out, then smashing the ports and the shipping in the area might well hand the advantage on Java to the Japanese and if Java fell then so would Sumatra. That would render Singapore useless as a base of operations and hopefully secure the flow of oil from the DEI. Wake island still retained its original strategic value, and its capture would also allow the IJN to wipe away the stain on its honour from the original failed attempt. This operation would be supported by a small diversionary operation designed to draw American attention away from Wake until the island had bee secured.

Both these operations had merit; the issue arose when it was decided that they should be carried out simultaneously. This provoked arguments, with Yamamoto supporting the idea and a small group of officers led by Admiral Nagumo arguing for a more cautious approach, completing the attack on Wake Island, codenamed Operation MD, before carrying out the raid on Singapore, Operation MK. Yamamoto rejected this and had a pragmatic rationale for doing so, if the Americans were crushed at Wake Island then the British fleet at Ceylon might not leave Ceylon to engage and remain an ongoing threat to other operations in the theatre. He was adamant that the IJN had the strength to cover both operations. Yamamoto was also almost certainly hoping that two simultaneous defeats would force the Allies to reassess their commitment to the Pacific War, perhaps forcing them to seek peace. If that did not happen then such heavy losses would buy time for Japan to finish off the Allied forces in Malaya, Burma, and the DEI, as well as fortifying the outer most islands of their new empire to exact the maximum possible price in blood if the Allies tried to take them. At that point the prospect of a reasonable negotiated would be once again on the table [2].

This assessment of Allied reactions was certainly optimistic, which is not to say it was wrong. It was painfully obvious to the more objective minds in Tokyo that Japan’s hopes for a short war were evaporating. Unless the long sought decisive battle was fought, and won, by Japan before the summer of 1942 then they faced exactly the sort of protracted war that favoured the Allies and bleeding them for every metre of ground they took might simply stoke a desire for vengeance rather than break their spirit. The though of such a vengeful enemy getting into striking distance of the Home Islands, and the emperor himself, was too horrifying to contemplate. Operation MD and MK were gambles, but in gambling terms the Japanese either had to go all in or fold their hand, and even the most realistic minds Tokyo were not prepared to contemplate that option, better to fight to an honourable death than surrender [3].

Still regardless of the strategic and political thinking behind this ‘twin strike’ there were still obvious problems with the plan. For one thing it violated the military principle of concentration of force, though as we have seen previously it was hardly unique in that respect and the IJN could at least reasonably argue that it possessed advantages in tactics, experience, and the quality of its equipment, especially its carrier airwings, that offset that problem [4]. A far more damning flaw was the underlying assumption that the Allied navies would respond to the IJN’s timetable and in the precise manner that suited the Japanese. This might have been justified if the Japanese were in possession of any solid intelligence on the current deployments of the Royal Navy and USN, but their intelligence gathering remained lamentable.

The Japanese remained ignorant of the fact that Admiral Cunningham had taken over command of operations in theatre at the beginning of March, nor did they know the scale of the reinforcements he had received. While Cunningham now had three carriers at his disposal, Formidable, Furious, and Indomitable, the Japanese believed the British force at Ceylon had two at most and that one of those was the venerable HMS Eagle, which was in fact in Britain undergoing a refit before proceeding to the Mediterranean where it would take part in the invasion of Sicily. Since Eagle carried a little more than half the aircraft complement of either Hiryū or Soryu, the carriers the Japanese assigned to the Singapore operation, it is tempting to assume that Yamamoto and his intelligence staff remained convinced Eagle was in the Indian Ocean because it suited them to believe this [5].

A similarly blasé attitude had been adopted regarding the Wake Island operation. The Akagi and the two most modern carriers in the IJN, Zuikaku and Shōkaku, were assigned to this strike, the other member of the Kido Butai, the Kaga, was unavailable as it had been damaged in accident and then suffered some relatively minor bomb hits during raiding operations on the Marshall Islands. Kaga certainly needed repair, however it might have been possible to patch the ship up temporarily to make its air group available at Singapore, where initial planning had assumed that three carriers would be assigned, and if the situation had been reversed one suspects the Allies would have done everything in their power to patch up Furious or Yorktown to have them available [6]. This option was rejected because of the insistence that the repairs be fully completed under what was still essentially a peacetime regime. The Kaga would not be released until it had been returned to 100% readiness and that was that as far as the IJN was concerned. The rigid adherence to the rules stood in stark contrast to the abandon with which the IJN was willing to innovate and take risks when it came to naval strategy and tactics. Their shore establishments remained hidebound, including their pilot training, which still insisted on only the very best being allowed to serve and honing their skills to a peak before ever letting them near a combat zone. Even under the pressures experienced later in the war they still clung to this doctrine, until they adopted new tactics in which piloting skills were no longer a consideration [7].

If Japanese naval intelligence was simply telling its superiors what they wanted to hear Allied codebreakers were providing accurate, if incomplete information, which had not always put to the best use. As a picture of Japanese intentions started to form the obvious response would have been to co-ordinate action between the Royal Navy and USN. This faced a major roadblock in the shape of Admiral King. The CINC of the US Navy fiercely opposed any joint operations with the Royal Navy, which became an increasing embarrassment to the US government as time went on. In the end this was not disastrous for the Allied response, though it did probably foreshorten Admiral King’s tenure as CINC. Under the circumstances although Cunningham and Nimitz could not officially co-operate in planning their operations, there was certainly an exchange of strictly hypothetical ideas about how they might react to certain equally hypothetical Japanese actions. However unofficial it might have been it was clear that Nimitz and Cunningham shared the same view, that the attacks on Singapore and Wake offered an opportunity to turn the tables on the Japanese. Yamamoto would get his decisive battles, but whether he would be happy at the result was another matter [8].

[1] Again the Japanese army and navy seemed to save their greatest antipathy for each other rather than their actual enemies.

[2] So there is some strategic reasoning going on here, though it is being interpreted through the lens of the IJN’s desire for one great decisive victory.

[3] In the end the inability contemplate anything less than victory on their own terms is driving the Japanese to keep rolling the dice.

[4] The advantage is real in early 1942, but as we saw IOTL its remarkably fragile.

[5] Easy to criticize the Japanese for this, but Bomber Command and the 8th Airforce will carry on with the same kind of wishful thinking about bombing Germany into surrender long past the point where they should have known better.

[6] Well because obviously that’s exactly what they did.

[7] That is indeed a reference to Kamikazes.

[8] Japan has to contend with Yamamoto’s gamblers instincts, the Allies have to cope with King’s rampant Anglophobia, which is worse?
 
It's really nice to see Cunningham and RN cooperating with Nimitz and USN as equals, warms my heart :) (I mean in eastern theater).

What planes are aboard Eastern Fleet, I assume something a bit better then OTL?
 
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