I wonder what will be the next step for the British, after expelling Japanese from Burma and Malaya.

Land attack into Siam and Indochina? Some sort of naval operation against Borneo to cut off forces in DEI?

I don't know if British OTL had plans for operations post reconquest of Burma/Malaya. Were any further operations intended for SE Asia or were they to skip all that and help with Downfall (if even that was planned)?
 

Garrison

Donor
So DEI is otl? Interesting.
Except for Java where allied forces are fighting a protracted battle to hold on. With Japanese setbacks elsewhere neither side can commit the means needed for a decisive battle and with Singapore as a potential base of operations it will become a net loss for the Japanese, since as you suggested they are not getting a lot of oil out of there.
 

Garrison

Donor
I wonder what will be the next step for the British, after expelling Japanese from Burma and Malaya.

Land attack into Siam and Indochina? Some sort of naval operation against Borneo to cut off forces in DEI?

I don't know if British OTL had plans for operations post reconquest of Burma/Malaya. Were any further operations intended for SE Asia or were they to skip all that and help with Downfall (if even that was planned)?
It will be the DEI, but not until 1943.
 
1st February– 18th April 1942 – Malaya and Burma - Operation Yari – Part V – The Second Battle of Kuala Lumpur
...
I figure (I hope not in error) that if India is NOT under threat of invasion, but that Churchill desperately wants an Indian Army for Southeast Asia, that gives Nehru and Indian National Congress a stronger hand than in the original timeline negotiating with Churchill.
I'd hope that even Churchill has to agree to 'Dominion status now' (and maybe further reconsideration after the war on the status of the King-Emperor and so forth) in exchange for whatever promises and guarantees he needs on military contributions.
 
General Masanobu Tsuji, was primarily responsible for the demands to increase the weight of the attack in the west, fearing that a mere holding action would give the British too much room to manoeuvre and that they had to be pushed out of the Swettenham Line and kept off balance. Tsuji did express the view that this should not be done at the expense of weakening the attack in the east, however when it became clear that this simply wasn’t possible Tsuji reverted to his aggressive instincts and allowed the western arm of the offensive to draw strength away from the other parts of the operation [1].​
You mean that that psychopathic monster has actually been promoted?! And given a field command?!?

You can look forward to prisoners of war being served up at dinner to put spirit into the high command. The field executions will continue until morale is improved. Supply troops will be thrown into the front line; the army will be told to put a stone in its stomach and take its rations and ammunition from the foe.

After which things will really get bad.
 

nbcman

Donor
Except for Java where allied forces are fighting a protracted battle to hold on. With Japanese setbacks elsewhere neither side can commit the means needed for a decisive battle and with Singapore as a potential base of operations it will become a net loss for the Japanese, since as you suggested they are not getting a lot of oil out of there.
Only Java? Japanese Sumatra in addition to having some Japanese airbases in northern Malaya / Siam would make southern Malaya and Singapore untenable for the British. Considering the Japanese didn't advance on Sumatra until after the fall of Singapore with forces that were involved in the invasion of Malaya (Imperial Guards Division) and paratroopers whose aircraft had to be based in Malaya to attack Palembang, I don't see how Sumatra would fall considering Monty's defensive victory.
 
You mean that that psychopathic monster has actually been promoted?! And given a field command?!?

You can look forward to prisoners of war being served up at dinner to put spirit into the high command. The field executions will continue until morale is improved. Supply troops will be thrown into the front line; the army will be told to put a stone in its stomach and take its rations and ammunition from the foe.

After which things will really get bad.
Interesting career. Impressive that he was allowed to run for parliament after running from war crimes prosecution and even has a statue in Japan.

Really a country with a light outside face and some dark things inside, even today.
 

Garrison

Donor
Okay so a mix of cock ups and not making things clearer on my part:
Tsuji should be a Colonel and I have edited the update, also making it clear that he is nowhere near the battlefield, allowing him to distance himself from the atrocities.
Secondly given that the DEI was a very late addition to the TL I am still refining the shape of the fighting there. So Borneo is Japanese, Sumatra is very much in Allied hands, and Java is the dividing line where neither side is willing to give ground, until 1943.
 

Garrison

Donor
I figure (I hope not in error) that if India is NOT under threat of invasion, but that Churchill desperately wants an Indian Army for Southeast Asia, that gives Nehru and Indian National Congress a stronger hand than in the original timeline negotiating with Churchill.
I'd hope that even Churchill has to agree to 'Dominion status now' (and maybe further reconsideration after the war on the status of the King-Emperor and so forth) in exchange for whatever promises and guarantees he needs on military contributions.
Overall without the famine and with a greater use for Indian troops there may well be a compromise on Dominion status.
 
Okay so a mix of cock ups and not making things clearer on my part:
Tsuji should be a Colonel and I have edited the update, also making it clear that he is nowhere near the battlefield, allowing him to distance himself from the atrocities.
Secondly given that the DEI was a very late addition to the TL I am still refining the shape of the fighting there. So Borneo is Japanese, Sumatra is very much in Allied hands, and Java is the dividing line where neither side is willing to give ground, until 1943.
A Java-sized Guadalcanal would be… *shudders*
 
12th February -13th February 1942 – Operation Odin

Garrison

Donor
12th February -13th February 1942 – Operation Odin

Even in the months after the loss of Bismarck and Prinz Eugen Admiral Raeder had not entirely abandoned his plans for further sorties into the Atlantic by his surface fleet, though whether this was motivated by a genuine expectation of success or simply the need to be seen to be doing something is still a subject for argument. His plan now centred around linking up Tirpitz and Scharnhorst, possibly acting in co-operation with a repaired Gneisenau. This latter possibility had crumbled as the extent of the damage inflicted by the RAF air raids became clear, and further attacks in the following months had undone much of what work had been carried out. By the end of 1941 the efforts to rebuild Gneisenau had been unofficially abandoned for the time being and Hitler had now decided that Norway was a ‘zone of destiny’ that must be protected at all costs. So rather than Tirpitz departing Norwegian waters to link up with Scharnhorst, the Scharnhorst was now required to head from north from Brest and link up with Tirpitz, meaning that Scharnhorst would have to run the gauntlet of the English Channel with only a quartet of destroyers and a force of E-Boats as an escort [1].

Raeder’s anxieties about this plan were increased by the fact that he had received reports of several Royal Navy capital ships departing from the Mediterranean. Such reports often tended to inflate the class of ships involved, with cruisers frequently being described as battleships or even carriers, however that the British had withdrawn one or more battleships back to home waters was all but certain. Raeder’s anxieties were ignored by Hitler, who had little faith in the Admiral’s opinions and was not in the mood to revisit his decision. Raeder was right to be worried as the reports were accurate and one battleship had been correctly identified as such, HMS Queen Elizabeth.

This venerable battleship was withdrawn from the Mediterranean in early December, with the intention of having her undergo maintenance and a modest refit to upgrade her anti-aircraft defences. This plan was delayed at the beginning of January when the British received intelligence that Scharnhorst was possibly going to sortie from Brest. This also meant that plans for the deployment of the King George V class battleship HMS Anson, recently returned from ferrying Churchill to the USA, to Ceylon were delayed in the hopes of intercepting and destroying Scharnhorst. The British formulated a plan that aimed to integrate action by the Royal Navy, RAF and FAA, Operation Fuller [2].

That the British had so much advance information about the planning for what the Germans called Operation Odin [3] was due to a mixture of signals intelligence, aerial reconnaissance, and a pair of spies inside Brest itself. The aftermath of the loss of most of the Marine Nationale had fuelled resistance activities in and around the major French dockyards and made obtaining human intelligence from inside France easier, though never easy, with the agents risking their lives every time they made contact. The British did their best to protect their agents, ensuring that neither of those monitoring activities in the dockyards at Brest knew the other existed.

Doenitz had spent much of January trying to scrape up more of an escort for Scharnhorst, the problem was that the Kriegsmarine was running out of surface ships to use. Given this reality much of the responsibility for defending Scharnhorst would fall on the Luftwaffe. Goering promised heavy air cover for the battleship, and for once he delivered on his promise. Conversely the RAF contribution to Operation Fuller fell somewhat short of what might have been expected, with units having been dispatched overseas and redeployed to airfields in the north of Britain, ironically in response to the perceived threat of a breakout by Tirpitz. This meant that available squadrons able to intercept a potential breakout from Brest were thin on the ground and the situation was exacerbated by miserable weather and some northerly airfields being snowed in. That communications between the RAF and Royal Navy were still far from satisfactory did nothing to help in co-ordinating a response [4].

A further issue was that the RAF bomber groups around Dover intended to deploy AP bombs as these were theoretically the only bomb the RAF had that could seriously damage the Scharnhorst. General Purpose (GP) bombs would simply explode when they struck armour, and the blast would do little damage to an armoured target like Scharnhorst. The significant drawback to the AP bombs was that they had to be dropped from at least 7000ft, making it hard to hit a moving target at the best of times. When fog and low cloud limited visibility this meant they either had to be dropped too low to be effective, or dropped blind in the hope they hit home. Doenitz knew nothing of these problems and was filled with apprehension, but under pressure to launch Operation Odin he finally gave the order for Scharnhorst and her escorts to depart. With the operation under the command of the captain of the Scharnhorst, Kapitän zur See Kurt-Caesar Hoffmann the force departed Brest on the night of the 12th-13th February.

The Germans had been doing their best to jam any unauthorized radio transmissions out of the Brest area, one of the agents inside the dockyard did manage to get a message out advising that Scharnhorst had left the dockyard. This priceless piece of intelligence was almost squandered as it took hours for the information to be relayed to the Royal Navy and the RAF, and it was nearly dawn on the 13th before Queen Elizabeth and Anson received orders to proceed to try and intercept the Kriegsmarine flotilla. They had already been at sea after earlier warnings about Operation Odin, but they were not well positioned to respond and it would take some hours for them to close, assuming they could locate Scharnhorst at all before night fell on the short northern European day [5].

This meant that for the time being stopping the Scharnhorst fell to the RAF and the FAA, and all the potential problems mentioned above afflicted the RAF attempts to bomb the battleship. They also had to contend with the presence of the Luftwaffe, making the most of their temporary air superiority over the channel as RAF fighters were either in the wrong place or poorly co-ordinated with the bombers. The RAF bomber groups assigned to attack Scharnhorst were hastily reloaded with GP bombs considering the conditions in the channel, delaying their take off for over an hour. When they did take to the air, they either failed to find the ship, withdrew in the face of incessant attacks from the Luftwaffe, or dropped their bombs to no effect, despite the usual claims of multiple hits from overeager crews. In the end it fell to a single FAA torpedo bomber squadron to spare the British from humiliating failure, and they paid a high price for their efforts.

FAA 825 Squadron had recently been re-equipped with Fairey Monarch Barracuda’s and after several delays they were finally provided with fighter cover and the eight available aircraft of the squadron finally took off just after 12:20 hours on the 13th. The fighter protection however was soon stripped away as the Spitfire’s were drawn into engagements with Bf 109s and Fw 190s covering the Scharnhorst and the Barracudas came under fighter attack themselves as they approached the Kriegsmarine force. Only two of the Barracudas survived long enough to get their torpedoes away, and none survived to return to base. Of the two torpedoes launched only one appears to have hit home, though some reports suggest the other torpedo struck but failed to detonate. The damage done by the one confirmed hit was serious but not fatal. It had detonated on the port side of Scharnhorst, aft of amidships. The battleship did take on water, though efforts to shore up the damage combined with her pumps allowed Scharnhorst to stave off any major flooding [6].

Given the complete failure of the other air attacks it began to seem to Captain Hoffmann that the Scharnhorst had weathered the worst of what the British had to throw at them especially with dusk swiftly approaching. However the same poor weather that had helped mask the Scharnhorst had also allowed the Queen Elizabeth and the Anson to proceed undetected and unmolested. This changed about 15:20 hours when a report from a prowling Luftwaffe spotting plane advised that what was identified as one battleship supported by a cruiser and several destroyers was steaming towards Scharnhorst’s position. This news was greeted with shock on the bridge of the Scharnhorst. With his ship already damaged and fearing that he was facing a repeat of the fate of the Bismarck Hoffman had little choice except to alter course and try to evade contact during the night. Turning back to Brest was out of the question, even if it had been possible tactically any such request would have been inevitably vetoed from Berlin. The Scharnhorst instead altered course while still staying on a northerly heading, unwittingly turning towards uncharted British minefield.

In the next two hours the Scharnhorst hit two mines, the damage from the first was severe, again though probably survivable by itself, the second mine exploded practically next the existing damage from the torpedo strike. The hastily patched damaged was not only reopened but massively worsened as previously weakened plates cracked and tore open [7]. The flow of water into Scharnhorst increased from a trickle to a flood that the pumps could not keep up with and there was no prospect this time of patching the damage. The ship was fighting a losing battle against the flooding and when a pump failed at 16:40 hours Scharnhorst’s fate was sealed. Beginning at 17:20 hours Captain Hoffman ordered the destroyers Z8 Bruno Heinmann and the Z7 Herman Schoemann to come alongside and take off all except a skeleton crew who continued to try and save the Scharnhorst until 19:00 hours when Hoffman ordered all hands to abandon ship. The captain and his remaining crew shut off the remaining pumps and were taken off even as Scharnhorst began to list to port. Hoffman watched from the deck of the Herman Schoemann as Scharnhorst finally went down at around 20:10 hours [8].

For the Germans Hoffman would carry much of the blame for the loss of the Scharnhorst, and in some respects he was fortunate to get away with nothing worse than a ruined career. Even six months later he would probably have faced being shot for cowardice or ‘sabotage’. Admiral Raeder did not escape unscathed either. Hitler’s patience was finally exhausted and he dismissed Raeder, replacing him with the more politically reliable Doenitz, though the promotion did not provide any sudden improvement in the performance of the U-Boat force [9].

The British placed the entire credit for the destruction of the Scharnhorst on the actions of 825 Squadron, which was an exaggeration, though since it ensured that the squadrons sacrifice was properly commemorated it is perhaps forgivable, and it is the case that without their attack Scharnhorst would almost certainly have survived. The commander of 825 Squadron, Lieutenant Commander Eugene Esmonde, was credited with scoring the crucial hit and awarded the Victoria Cross. At the time lionizing 825 Squadron had more to do with covering up the poor execution of Operation Fuller than with honouring the dead and there would be considerable recriminations behind the scenes about who should shoulder the blame for what had come close to being a complete debacle. One tangible outcome was a renewed determination on the part of the RAF and the Royal Navy to send the Tirpitz to the bottom of Bogen Fjord [10].

[1] Most of the other major ships that took part in OTL Operation Cerberus are either sunk or out of action, so less anti-aircraft support for Scharnhorst for one thing.

[2] So owing to the more secure situation in the Med and ships commissioning sooner there are battleships available for Operation Fuller.

[3] Called Odin rather than Cerberus because there is only one capital ship rather than several. Also given a tougher German line in France the British are getting more info.

[4] So some of the issues with Fuller, such as the weather, can’t be fixed and with operations in North Africa only just finishing up and the demands of the Far East the RAF are still stretched thin despite having more aircraft overall.

[5] It’s still better than OTL Fuller.

[6] Still an appalling loss but ITTL they managed to land some damage. OTL 825 Squadron were still flying Swordfish during the attack.

[7] This is what happened IOTL, except with the previous torpedo damage the effect is much worse.

[8] Another bad for the KM, though the British have hardly covered themselves in glory. IOTL Z8 Bruno Heinmann hit a mine and sank in January, here it avoided that and took part in Odin.

[9] Doenitz gets the top job sooner, for all the good it will do him.

[10] You may assume that is the same sort of ongoing project it was OTL.
 

Garrison

Donor
Bit of an aside but doing some further research for the future DEI campaign I came across General Kiyotake Kawaguchi, a Japanese officer who opposed the executions in the Philippines ordered by Masanobu Tsuji, naturally Kawaguchi was convicted of war crimes, while Tsuji got elected to parliament. Still he will feature in the sequel TL.

 
Bit of an aside but doing some further research for the future DEI campaign I came across General Kiyotake Kawaguchi, a Japanese officer who opposed the executions in the Philippines ordered by Masanobu Tsuji, naturally Kawaguchi was convicted of war crimes, while Tsuji got elected to parliament. Still he will feature in the sequel TL.

Wow life can be a real bitch sometimes.
 
Bit of an aside but doing some further research for the future DEI campaign I came across General Kiyotake Kawaguchi, a Japanese officer who opposed the executions in the Philippines ordered by Masanobu Tsuji, naturally Kawaguchi was convicted of war crimes, while Tsuji got elected to parliament. Still he will feature in the sequel TL.

Quite an impressive irony.
 
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