Mubarak killed in Sadat's assassination?

So, I was reading up on Sadat today, in light of the recent going-ons in Egypt, and I noticed that, in the assassination plot, Mubarak himself was wounded.

So, let's say Mubarak wasn't as lucky as he was OTL, and gets killed.

What happens to Egypt after the assassination now? Will there be a power struggle, or is there an obvious choice for succession in such a scenario?
 
Possibility that Egypt gets another Nasser-like leader, i.e. one that openly remains committed to the annihilation of Israel, which means far fewer Israeli concessions, maybe no Oslo.
 

Japhy

Banned
Possibility that Egypt gets another Nasser-like leader, i.e. one that openly remains committed to the annihilation of Israel, which means far fewer Israeli concessions, maybe no Oslo.

You ever see this one ESPN commercial where people who arn't ontop of Sports info get into conversations about the topic? Its kind of funny because they start literally talking out of their rears. You're reminding me of that right now with this and your other comments on the Arab-Israeli situation.

Egypt following the Fourth Arab-Israeli War is a nation thats pretty much bound for a treaty with the Israelis. They've tried, failed, and in some ways recovered honor by knocking the Israelis pretty hard in '73 before things turned on them. The crippling defeat and humiliation of Suez and '67 have more or less passed and excluding small radical elements, the need to wipe Israel off the map was fading in Egypt.

The Soviets are gone, Libya's hostile, the Syrians have been painful allies to deal with. Its pretty senseable to everyone with a shot in the main players in Upper Level Egyptian Politics that the Status Quo wasn't going to change and it was time to attempt a treaty.
 
You ever see this one ESPN commercial where people who arn't ontop of Sports info get into conversations about the topic? Its kind of funny because they start literally talking out of their rears. You're reminding me of that right now with this and your other comments on the Arab-Israeli situation.

Egypt following the Fourth Arab-Israeli War is a nation thats pretty much bound for a treaty with the Israelis. They've tried, failed, and in some ways recovered honor by knocking the Israelis pretty hard in '73 before things turned on them. The crippling defeat and humiliation of Suez and '67 have more or less passed and excluding small radical elements, the need to wipe Israel off the map was fading in Egypt.

The Soviets are gone, Libya's hostile, the Syrians have been painful allies to deal with. Its pretty senseable to everyone with a shot in the main players in Upper Level Egyptian Politics that the Status Quo wasn't going to change and it was time to attempt a treaty.

I think not. By the late '70s Israel's public is extremely war-weary, true, but the modern regime of a concessionist, "pacifistic" Israel has come about for two real reasons:

1--Jimmy Carter really made it his reason for being to force Israel to the table and negotiate a "peace". (BTW there was peace at the time, Egypt was within a hair of destroying the Jewish state, but then managed to completely blow it and get curbstomped. That humiliated Egypt and the whole Arab world and nothing had happened between YKW and the beginning of the talks.)
2--Anwar al-Sadat decided to give up the whole "push the Jews into the sea" routine and professed that he wanted peace.

It's kind of hard to enter peace negotiations with a state that not only nearly made good on its frequent threat against you four years ago, but that still vows to do the same.
 

Japhy

Banned
First Off, Sadat didn't go to War in '73 to "Push the Jews Into the Sea" or anything of the Sort. Egyptian War Aims were to get the Suez Canal Back and to redeem the defeat of '67. Note that Egypt didn't push out of its SAM Bubble on the edges of the Canal until pressure from the collapsing Syrians and even then, no one in Cairo was thinking they could really push into Israel proper.

Secondly if Sadat and Mubarak are both killed, as I stated previously the trend in Cairo was to accept that there needed to be Peace. If only because the Egyptians had abandoned the Soviets and needed to get on the Good side of the US. Negotiation was getting the Sinai back where Military Might had failed. Except for Out of Government Extremists no one was going to turn their back on the Peace Process by the time of the assassination, and sans a military coup that wasn't going to change.

To the Israeli's peace made sense because without Egypt there was no way that a coalition of Arab States could defeat them. Without having to worry about Egypt tying down troops hundreds of miles away from home they know they never have to be in as much danger as they were in '73 on the Golan Heights.

Neither side needed Carter to force them to have Peace and neither side is going to suddenly cease the process. They didn't when Sadat was killed IOTL they wouldn't in this ATL.
 
Egypt stopped after the Sinai because they couldn't believe how easy their progress was. They figured it must be a trap.

Those few days of cautious pause enabled Israel to darn near come back from the dead.

Japhy said:
as I stated previously the trend in Cairo was to accept that there needed to be Peace. If only because the Egyptians had abandoned the Soviets and needed to get on the Good side of the US. Negotiation was getting the Sinai back where Military Might had failed.
Well, duh. Sadat got it through his head that he could never beat Israel in a conventional war. He wised up and knew he'd have to talk Israel out of the Sinai with some pretty words for the Hebrew and western media.
 

Japhy

Banned
No Egypt Stopped because that was the plan. The Egyptians had no intent to push into Israel proper, or even Gaza during '73 their interests were the Canal and the Sinai.

Im not saying Israel wasn't on the ropes in '73 I'm just saying that any collapse was going to come at the Golan Heights. The most Egypt contributed to that was tying down troops.

Which is of course why Israel would be willing to stick their neck out to make sure a peace treaty would stay together after the assassination of Sadat and Mubarak.

And Egypt, getting the Canal open again and getting the Siani back, isn't going to go Full Radical Islamist following such an assassination. Neither side was going to go back to war footing. Neither the Egyptian Ruling Elite nor the Israeli government are going to throw out the peace treaty.
 
Somebody close to Sadat, therefore a believer in peace with Israel takesxiver. if he stays healthy he remains in power until today and nothing changes.
 

Cook

Banned
Egypt stopped after the Sinai because they couldn't believe how easy their progress was. They figured it must be a trap.

No. Egypt stopped and dug in because they had reached their objective. Their intention was to remain within range of the air defences provided by their SAM umbrella and to defeat the Israeli counter attack. Their doctrine, weapons and tactics were based on the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact.
Those few days of cautious pause enabled Israel to darn near come back from the dead.
The Israeli’s didn’t ‘come back from the dead’, they hadn’t had many forces in Sinai at the time of the attack; the Bar Lev Line as intended as a thinly manned trip wire, not an impregnable wall. The Israeli’s gave priority to dealing with the Syrian attack in the north.

Once the Syrian army was destroyed the Israeli’s dealt with the Egyptians.

Well, duh. Sadat got it through his head that he could never beat Israel in a conventional war. He wised up and knew he'd have to talk Israel out of the Sinai with some pretty words for the Hebrew and western media.

There is no evidence to support any theory other than that Anwar Sadat had the best interests of his nation at heart, that he honestly wanted peace so that Egypt could prosper.
 
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