MPLM's in Stephen Baxters Voyage

The thing in Voyage that grinds my gears with the whole Multi-Purpose Lunar Module, I get that Moonlab needs resupply, but bringing the ascent stage all the way to Lunar orbit seems like a waste to me, why not have a mission-capable Lunar Module and bringing it to Moonlabs orbit and land and Rendevous with Moonlab (i.e conduct a normal lunar mission and then go to moonlab)

I can't imagine Moonlab as being at anything other than equatorial Lunar orbit, and the fuel capability on the LM is tight, but using a J mission LM, with added fuel sacrificing time on the surface the surface might be able to return to Moonlab, analyze any samples, conduct experiments and research (learning how things behave on the moon)

It just seems like a waste, like how the soviets build the N-1 just to do Moonlab-Soyuz around the moon, and doesn't mention lunar missions, I get he has to cover alot and has to time jump often, but even throwaway mention of Soviets landing on the moon would go a long way.
 
I don’t remember MPLMs in Voyage itself but I think one of the continuation TLs had them?
 
sorry for the
I don’t remember MPLMs in Voyage itself but I think one of the continuation TLs had them?
sorry for the late response,
In the book it mentioned on Moonlab that the MPLM currently docked was apollo 16s LM being used as a storage container, bringing up supplies to Moonlab (basically like a progress spacecraft), it would launch on a Saturn V with the crew, transit to Moonlab, and dock with the lower port, while the CSM would dock to the front
it just seems like a waste to not land, yes I figure the storage would take launch mass (and be negated by the uprating of the V), but even having a 2-day lunar landing would be worth it than just dragging a LM all that way
its always been a headscratcher for me

the continuation TL had MEMs do moon landings, and become the new "human spacecraft" in LEO, which is unrealistic mostly due to the need to have a Saturn V-derived launch vehicle (80-ton ship),
 
but even having a 2-day lunar landing would be worth it than just dragging a LM all that way
Yeah, i just looked after that in the book and yes: It seems like you are right... you found ANOTHER unreasonable decision he made while writing that book. Even if they would have needed more fuel in the CSM to support a landing, then get to the station before finally leaving for earth: It would have been doable. There are three options jumping into my head to solve such a problem: 1st: Don´t use the CSM for the landing at all, instead they should use Moonlab as their staging point, yeah: That could mean that they need more fuel for the lander, but i think that it should be doable (especially the computers they can build into that thing would be much lighter then the ones in the original LM-production-run. 2nd Option: Modify the CSM with larger tanks (i repeat. Lighter computers and probably a lot of the other stuff too, and there is no need for experiment packages on the CSM, so there is possibly more space for fuel tanks. The science-stuff can be done by Moonlab, that´s officially the only reason for it´s existence (yeah i know: Shooting that thing to lunar orbit was more of a PR-stunt then anything else), or finally option 3: Use an unmodified CSM, support the LM-Landing as it would have been done in a normal Apollo-mission and then fly on to the space station. When the Cargo-Module/ the LM-Ascent-Stage is docked there, the CSM is refueled at that station.

Oh and that last option kicks in another thing that bothers me regarding to voyage: Where are the uncrewed logistics crafts? The Sowjets have the Progress-Ships, NASA has the same (more likely even higher) need for one simple thing: carry Cargo to a station. So: Where is the sollution for that problem? Where are the american robots? Here i am thinking about https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/eyes-turned-skywards.208954/ and it´s AARDVARK´s: Those things were brilliant for that story and they were so close to the existing Apollo-tech that i am pretty shure that they would have come up with such a thing someday if they wouldn´t have moved on to the STS-System the world finally got to see for thirty years.

Such an Aardvark would have been able to deliver fuel to the station for a refuel or even to ANY lunar orbit to refuel the CSM directly. If they would have moved back to some "landing only"-missions, without the need to go back to Moonlab, then they could have reached any part of the surface, just because they could have gotten a refueling for the command module if needed. Those missions would have been expensive because they need two launches, but still: Reaching every part of the lunar surface you like is a big deal for the scientists of this world. And i think that such probes would have fitted pretty nicely into the overall story: The uncrewed-scientific missions were pretty underfunded in that timeline and they felt the need to use every single small chance to build something robotic they had. Building up such uncrewed transports would have presented them a way to solve two problems at once: 1st they would have been kept relevent and they would have remained "in training", instead of loosing their skill out of pure underutilization. And 2nd: It would have given them a chance to design and build new technology into their ideas, just because it´s needed to keep the transports as efficient as possible. RnD could have been kept going in a lot of areas that are of the most importance for every spacecraft, from the smallest sat, to the biggest station, and those are: Power supply, fuel and propulsion-systems, maneuvering-systems, onboard computers, batteries, sensors like startrackers..... all of those are systems that they would have needed for any interplanetary mission anyways.

So: Why not keep the uncrewed-mission-community happy while they solve the problem of crewed "milk-run"-missions while saving a lot of money and enabling humanity´s return to the surface of the moon? Baxter wrote a lot of good things in his timeline, but a lot of dump things too.
 
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Yeah, i just looked after that in the book and yes: It seems like you are right... you found ANOTHER unreasonable decision he made while writing that book. Even if they would have needed more fuel in the CSM to support a landing, then get to the station before finally leaving for earth: It would have been doable. There are three options jumping into my head to solve such a problem: 1st: Don´t use the CSM for the landing at all, instead they should use Moonlab as their staging point, yeah: That could mean that they need more fuel for the lander, but i think that it should be doable (especially the computers they can build into that thing would be much lighter then the ones in the original LM-production-run. 2nd Option: Modify the CSM with larger tanks (i repeat. Lighter computers and probably a lot of the other stuff too, and there is no need for experiment packages on the CSM, so there is possibly more space for fuel tanks. The science-stuff can be done by Moonlab, that´s officially the only reason for it´s existence (yeah i know: Shooting that thing to lunar orbit was more of a PR-stunt then anything else), or finally option 3: Use an unmodified CSM, support the LM-Landing as it would have been done in a normal Apollo-mission and then fly on to the space station. When the Cargo-Module/ the LM-Ascent-Stage is docked there, the CSM is refueled at that station.
(sorry for the mess)
having a lunar space station is STUPID, there's no magnetic field, so you have to bring that with you, its hard to get to, limiting mission accessibility, and most importantly, whats your backup if the csm engine fails, the next mission is a year away)
honestly, I think he left it out for the "the book is long enough, and it isn't about the moon", but with lighter computers, additional fuel can be held (by modifications), and even assuming a direct to-Moonlab trajectory would leave enough fuel for a landing (CSM being the active portion of the rendevous, the LM just being transferred).
Now, we need to know the ORBIT OF MOONLAB, is it Polar or equatorial
a Polar orbit would put way more stress on LM capabilities, especially with the orbital Plane problem (Orbiting CSMs on apollo missions had to do this regularly to keep "flying over the landing site", a polar orbit would make any such landing impossible without a "super lm"
Equatorial orbits would be EXTRAORDINARILY limited in their landing sites, likely Marius hills or other low inclination orbits (again depends on how equatorial we are talking 10 degrees or 0 degrees)

each of your approaches is good in its own way

The moonlab-based approach is best for an Equatorial landing (little plane changes and saves a heck ton of fuel.

Larger tanked csm is best in a polar orbit, having the LM land and the CSM do plane changes to keep the orbit correct (and trajectory planners could "fix" the orbit to be in Moonlabs plane at the end)
this would work even better on equatorial missions, having the margin of fuel being much more than a regular csm, and assuming NASA has the budget for modifying its remaining LMs (14 and 15s H-Mission, and 16 and 17s LMs (the book referencing 16 confirms they were at least "built")) they could attempt a 4 day mission

The Martian has this plane problem with its abort, the site is 49 degrees, and then the "shoot the dude into space idea", which is a complaint people have (the first is, they abort at day and launch at night, presumably when the launch window is up, and the second would have had years of planning to do)
Watney even describes a training program that had them in the same room for a few weeks, to simulate this (Hermes not having the shear thrust power to grab them immediately, taking time to match planes with their MAV

a regular CSM/LM mission would be usable on both, more suited for Equatorial landings (less tight fuel margins), polar orbits would be extremely finicky and be tight on fuel (trajectory corrections, orbit insertion, descent orbit insertion (if its not cut), plane changes, and moonlab rendevous and docking, and most importantly, Trans-Earth Insertion)
an uprated CSM would do wonders in this regard

so here I go (plan across all three options being friendly to the book)

the first two moonlab flights would build up experience with lunar operations
the third would bring an LM to land, a J-mission LM, (polar orbit would be lightened, having a 2-day stay time or no rover)
the fourth would bring an uprated H-mission LM, which would land
the fifth and last moonlab mission would bring the last J-mission LM to the moon (polar orbit being lighter, less stay or no rover), after which the Moonlab program would be shut down due to Apollo-N and the reprioritization on Mars missions
that gives two "learning flights" and three missions and is the most likely scenario i see
I would say have the second moonlab flight be a landing, but after the outfiting on Moonlab 1, the prority would be getting it up and running before any attempt at a lunar return, hence the third mission having a lander (maybe Moonlab 2 uses a Lunar Module as a cargo carrier)

the extremely stupid idea is having said cargo lm be a fully capable lm, being dormant on the station, when moonlab 3 arrives, it immediately lands, does its stay, and returns to moonlab, where after a month, a second landing occurs with this second LM, being more bang for your buck type thing


in terms of logistics

a dedicated cargo carrier/fuel carrier to the Moon is stupid like wow that's really stupid, stupid (not being mean sorry, like really sorry. sorry), the shear mass requirements for that with what they had at that time would be expensive, it would require 30 tons to LLO or PLO, which would be higher than most rockets capable of the time, and have to be used on a Saturn V booster (which is why Baxter had them use the old LMs as logistic carriers, it kinda makes sense in that regard [two birds with one rocket]), yes it would work at allowing access to the whole surface (nasa limited sites on safety resons, rightfully so), the problem is the interesting sites that scientists would want are still hard to get to, the poles are just asking for trouble, Tycho is a deathtrap (the boulders), and the far side is still, the far side, so your looking at a new comsat constellation in lunar orbit (the book never said they had communication when going aroud the far side), which would add furthur cost\

if moonlab is in a polar orbit then this "fuel carrier" is uneeded, it would only be needed in a non-polar orbit
the Moonlab-based approach with a cargo carrier would work best here, having three birds with one rocket (station cargo in the LM, CSM, and Lander)


if I was in charge of planning, I would have canned 17 and had 16 land at Descartes with an LM stocked waiting for them, with a stay of 2 weeks, would put all missions to shame, dunno if Duke would be canned, but maybe Schmitt got moved to 15

with Skylab-A and -B, we don't get much info on them at all, to say nothing of logistics or operations (we know some stuff not all), I would assume they have a variation of the Aardvark or something, to be used in regular operations, either launched by 1b or Titans

In Voyage, probes still happen, only being Mars focused, with Voyager being canned in favor of more Mars orbiters and landers, so the tech would still be there, just not as well practiced to the same high-stress extent as otl (some of the voyager problems were nuts)
and his canning of probes did happen in real life, due to the shuttle, NASA canned most if not all probes after 77 to the mid-80s, where Challenger then pushed them into the late 80s to 90s, leaving a nearly 12-year "gap" in probes launched by the US

Startracking would probably be on the same level as otl, probably being a duel system with a computer and human o[erator
 
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Now, we need to know the ORBIT OF MOONLAB, is it Polar or equatorial
Yeah, exactly that´s why i talked about the option to use a uncrewed vehicle for direct refueling of the CSM: Incase the orbits are too different to travel to the station.
The moonlab-based approach is best for an Equatorial landing (little plane changes and saves a heck ton of fuel.
My thought to, the polar orbit would only be really useable for mapping and such experiments, not really for a landing.
a dedicated cargo carrier/fuel carrier to the Moon is stupid like wow that's really stupid, stupid (not being mean sorry, like really sorry. sorry), the shear mass requirements for that with what they had at that time would be expensive, it would require 30 tons to LLO or PLO, which would be higher than most rockets capable of the time, and have to be used on a Saturn V booster (which is why Baxter had them use the old LMs as logistic carriers, it kinda makes sense in that regard [two birds with one rocket]), yes it would work at allowing access to the whole surface (nasa limited sites on safety resons, rightfully so), the problem is the interesting sites that scientists would want are still hard to get to, the poles are just asking for trouble, Tycho is a deathtrap (the boulders), and the far side is still, the far side, so your looking at a new comsat constellation in lunar orbit (the book never said they had communication when going aroud the far side), which would add furthur cost\
Oh no need to be sorry :D I wasn´t really thinking about a dedicated design, just a variant of a vehicle that´s used to support the Earth Orbit-Missions to, A variant with a different communications-system (if needed) that is launched by a differenct LV to get enough delta v for the lunar flights. Designing a thing dedicated to those missions is on the same stupidity-level they did with the one-and-done-Ares. To many things that are designed and tested, just to be scrapped just after their first use or only a handfull used. That´s just idiotic.
if I was in charge of planning, I would have canned 17 and had 16 land at Descartes with an LM stocked waiting for them, with a stay of 2 weeks, would put all missions to shame, dunno if Duke would be canned, but maybe Schmitt got moved to 15
Yeah, that´s a good idea, it would use the remaining resources in a way that´s much more attractive for the scientific-community and the engineers who are destined to design the Ares-Systems. Having a few weeks on the lunar surface could bring up a lot of problems that they would have to solve on mars too.
with Skylab-A and -B, we don't get much info on them at all, to say nothing of logistics or operations (we know some stuff not all), I would assume they have a variation of the Aardvark or something, to be used in regular operations, either launched by 1b or Titans
Yeah, that could be. And yes: The book is pretty long already and Baxter was a relatively new author at that time, but i really think he should come back to such ideas and rework it into a new version that spans over 2-3 books and includes fixes for all the dump stuff and the logic holes.
In Voyage, probes still happen, only being Mars focused, with Voyager being canned in favor of more Mars orbiters and landers, so the tech would still be there, just not as well practiced to the same high-stress extent as otl (some of the voyager problems were nuts)
Yeah, but the whole project seems to be a lot smaller then
and his canning of probes did happen in real life, due to the shuttle, NASA canned most if not all probes after 77 to the mid-80s, where Challenger then pushed them into the late 80s to 90s, leaving a nearly 12-year "gap" in probes launched by the US
Yeah, that´s correct. The Space Shuttle and the War in Vietnam killed of a lot of the scientific direction of NASA. Especially the Shuttle was just a stupid idea at the time the project was started, i think it could have worked if they would have gotten enough money to build that thing big enough to make it fully reusable, but what came out of it was expensive, unreliable and the fact that there were matured expandable LV´s that were not only cheaper but had often a higher payload-capacity is enough to complete the mess the Shuttle-Program was (I am in a love-hait-relationship with that thing, because there were a lot of capabilities we just lost when it got out of service, i just say "Canadarm").
OTL. There is a lot more funding spent on human spaceflight.
 
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Yeah, exactly that´s why i talked about the option to use a uncrewed vehicle for direct refueling of the CSM: Incase the orbits are too different to travel to the station.
My thought to, the polar orbit would only be really useable for mapping and such experiments, not really for a landing.
polar orbot would be a dream to scientists, expecally for mapping the surface, but be a nightmare in terms of fuel and abort capability (the TEI window comes up twice a month, so god help you if your spacecraft has a fuel leak and the tei window is 13 days away
Oh no need to be sorry :D I wasn´t really thinking about a dedicated design, just a variant of a vehicle that´s used to support the Earth Orbit-Missions to, A variant with a different communications-system (if needed) that is launched by a differenct LV to get enough delta v for the lunar flights. Designing a thing dedicated to those missions is on the same stupidity-level they did with the one-and-done-Ares. To many things that are designed and tested, just to be scrapped just after their first use or only a handfull used. That´s just idiotic.
it still is silly having Moonlab, but in the book they use the LMs as cargo, but even in the book the resupply ship would be cut, as it doesnt serve ares, yes theres a spacestation around the moon, but its only there to be publicity and use up remaining apollo hardware (the 5 saturn Vs were taken from the lunar program, effectivly cancelling 15-20 right off the bat), any commsats or cargo ship would be seen as too wasteful to use for extended periods of time, if moonlab had permanent crew and constant rotation then there would likely be a cargo ship, but as is in the book is pretty wasful
Yeah, that could be. And yes: The book is pretty long already and Baxter was a relatively new author at that time, but i really think he should come back to such ideas and rework it into a new version that spans over 2-3 books and includes fixes for all the dump stuff and the logic holes.
the book is already long as heck, i get why he cut soo much,

having it be a trilogy would be better, but would drag it out, take the book Islands of clouds, about a apollo-venus flyby, it drages because it would be like that on th e flight, but in voyage he skips a bunch to serve the main story, while yes it is janky and leaves you wodnering exactly what is going on at some areas of the book, i get why it was only one novel
he said each book is what nasa could do
Voyage, an 80s mars landing, doable
Titan, late 2000s and 2010s mission to titan, exedingly difficult but doable
Moonlab, crash lunar program in less then a year, gulps a 40 ouncer of Vodka doable

Yeah, but the whole project seems to be a lot smaller then
more downright canceled, Voyage and the outer planets (pioneer) are abandoned, a character mentiosn the fact that the outer planets are still just dots in the sky, not being visited
Yeah, that´s correct. The Space Shuttle and the War in Vietnam killed of a lot of the scientific direction of NASA. Especially the Shuttle was just a stupid idea at the time the project was started, i think it could have worked if they would have gotten enough money to build that thing big enough to make it fully reusable, but what came out of it was expensive, unreliable and the fact that there were matured expandable LV´s that were not only cheaper but had often a higher payload-capacity is enough to complete the mess the Shuttle-Program was (I am in a love-hait-relationship with that thing, because there were a lot of capabilities we just lost when it got out of service, i just say "Canadarm").
OTL. There is a lot more funding spent on human spaceflight.
the correct term is murdered than killed, also the inflation in the 70s didn't help at all
The shuttle was a good idea on paper, especially in the actual plan for the future (shuttle being a lifter of crew/cargo to a station/tug), and having a flight rate over 51 per year (the 4 initial orbiters were expected to fly this much before it was realized how much time maintenance would take), after the apollo program sucked in the public eye, the next best promise was the shuttle, which due to insane budget cuts (no flyback/reusable boosting stage), and NRO demands (payload bay size and wing size for reference mission 3A and 3B), the shuttle became a Frankenstein of what it should have been, still capable as heck, but pretty much useless as an "access to space" vehicle

I'm honestly convinced skylab was left to deorbit due to the fact that the "station mafia" wanted a new big ass space station (literally all the designs in the 80s), having skylab still in orbit would outright cancel a successor, and have the shuttle be a crew taxi to a old station
 
polar orbot would be a dream to scientists, expecally for mapping the surface, but be a nightmare in terms of fuel and abort capability (the TEI window comes up twice a month, so god help you if your spacecraft has a fuel leak and the tei window is 13 days away
Yes, that´s hitting the nail on the head. And that´s the reason why that orbit should be used for probes and comsats only.
having it be a trilogy would be better, but would drag it out, take the book Islands of clouds, about a apollo-venus flyby, it drages because it would be like that on th e flight, but in voyage he skips a bunch to serve the main story, while yes it is janky and leaves you wodnering exactly what is going on at some areas of the book, i get why it was only one novel
he said each book is what nasa could do
Voyage, an 80s mars landing, doable
Titan, late 2000s and 2010s mission to titan, exedingly difficult but doable
Moonlab, crash lunar program in less then a year, gulps a 40 ouncer of Vodka doable
Yes, he did what he wanted to do, in the only way he could have done it that early in his career.
more downright canceled, Voyage and the outer planets (pioneer) are abandoned, a character mentiosn the fact that the outer planets are still just dots in the sky, not being visited
Yeah, it´s a shame.
the correct term is murdered than killed, also the inflation in the 70s didn't help at all
Yeah, they were super successfull in defunding a dev-programm that would have lead to lower launch costs... but only if it would have been done right from the start. But then they thought: let´s bringt down that costs.... this is a stupid idea: if you have to put in more money at the start to save hundreds of billions over decades, then you do that.
(the 4 initial orbiters were expected to fly this much before it was realized how much time maintenance would take)
I know that, each of them was build for at least 100 missions, later build Blocks would probably have flown hundreds of times, but then reality kicked in and we know what that meant: haveing 135 flights over 30 years with 2 catastrophic losses and a bunch of near-losses.
 
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Yeah, they were super successfull in defunding a dev-programm that would have lead to lower launch costs... but only if it would have been done right from the start. But then they thought: let´s bringt down that costs.... this is a stupid idea: if you have to put in more money at the start to save hundreds of billions over decades, then you do that.
there was no smart idea in the 70s Paine wanted the Integrated Program Plan, which would have the Shuttle alongside Saturn V boosters, launching a 50-man space station, nuclear tugs, and lunar tugs that would transfer base modules to lunar orbit
it would have been a few billion more than apollo in 66, and the budget cuts during apollo canned the base, and later the 50-man space station, then the Saturn V launched stuff, Nuclear tugs is just asking for political trouble (Cassini was protested for its 10 kg of Plutonium), the lunar tug was canceled, and in 75 the reusable tug was canceled, leaving the Shuttle as the only launch vehicle available that had support with congress

by the time of the Shuttle Decision in 72, all the Saturn and apollo production lines were long shut down (3 years), yes there were like 16 CSMs left (god knows where they are today) and these could be used for the first flights, but after the production will need to be restarted. and with the rockets, there 2 Saturns Vs, and 3 or 4 1bs left, any future "apollo successor" program would have to be redeveloped with either a restart of production or a new rocket (Eyes turned skyward with a 1c, but with roll control, which his design doesn't have)
and with the capabilities of the Shuttle, both on paper and in reality, the Shuttle was a better option, with insane upmass and down mass, a huge cargo bay, and insane down mass, along with the capability to launch/retrieve payloads that couldn't otherwise return to earth, or even fix satellites on orbit without a return to earth
these outperformed Apollo in the LEO plans NASA had (crew ferry, vs the Shuttles Crew Ferry/Payload launcher/satellite retriever or repairman

Unlike Apollo, the Military could use the Shuttle, reference missions 3A and 3B called for; 3A, a shuttle launched from Vandenberg would launch into orbit, release a satellite and deorbit and return to Vandenberg before a full orbit (launch, release, land) and 3B a shuttle launched from Vandenberg, rendevous with a satellite and retrieve and return to earth before a full orbit (launch, grab, land), these missions set the crossrange capability (the wing size), and the demand for the payload bay set that size as well.

I know that, each of them was build for at least 100 missions, later build Blocks would probably have flown hundreds of times, but then reality kicked in and we know what that meant: haveing 135 flights over 30 years with 2 catastrophic losses and a bunch of near-losses.
the shuttle was supposed to only fly in the 80s, a replacement in the 90s would have been needed (shuttle service life was 100 flights or 10 years in service), the problem with the shuttle was most if not all its good ideas were canned early on, Reusable tug, station, reusable booster, more reusable engines, Liquid boosters, not to mention upgrades and improvements like commercial airlines
that last one being important, a regular airline would HAVE to replace faulty stuff, the shuttle just put on a band-aid (another O-ring), or didn't fix the problem (tiles)

(the shuttle was initially developed with a 3 backup plan, the idea being that if one failed, another mission would launch without fixing, and be fixed later on, a good idea for a high flight rate, but a bad idea in future use due to NASAs OCD on every component being perfect [rightfully so] they never did this and between flights the inspections of the backups only increased maintenance time and costs)


the highest ever launch rate was 15 a year, with a fleet of six it could easily have gotten to 20 and still be safe, but at 2 billion per orbiter, the 5th one was cut in the late 70s due to budget cuts, the shuttle was economical, just not after Challenger, flights were slowed and payloads got moved to cheaper expendable boosters, had the shuttle continued its monopoly, god knows what changes would have been made for safety in the 90s, partly for safety, and to improve flight rates

If a challenger or Columbia type disaster happened 2 or more years after, the Shuttle would be the only launch vehicle available for the next 4 years until aerospace companies rebuilt their rockets


My alternate TL has Canada buy orbiters and build its own site, allowing a flight rate of 24 or more a year to be achievable, and having the shuttle still launch stuff after Atlantis (challenger disaster in real life)
 
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more downright canceled, Voyage and the outer planets (pioneer) are abandoned, a character mentiosn the fact that the outer planets are still just dots in the sky, not being visited
While it thematically meshes well with the book's tone (the cost of dreams, as a banned member once said), cancelling Pioneer doesn't make much sense from an alt-hist perspective. In both OTL and Book TL, the real budget cuts start hitting during Apollo 13, when the OMB starts telling NASA they need to make some hard choices if they want Mars. TRW already got the pioneer contract in February of 1970--canning it at that point would be pointless, and quite possibly legally unworkable.
 
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While it thematically meshes well with the book's tone (the cost of dreams, as a banned member once said), cancelling Pioneer doesn't make much sense from an alt-hist perspective. In both OTL and Book TL, the real budget cuts start hitting during Apollo 13, when the OMB starts telling NASA they need to make some hard choices if they want Mars. TRW already got the pioneer contract in February of 1970--canning it at that point would be pointless.
like 18 and 19, both of which had the hardware ready to go (still some fabrication), 18s CSM and LM were on 17, so having an H-mission 15, and J 16-19, would cost about the same as it did flying 15-17 as J missions
NASA only saved less than 100 mil by canceling two LUNAR MISSIONS IRL, god knows what cuts they would make earlier for the Nuclear rocket and Skylab development

in the Book, NASA is in even Dire straights, and all funding is going to the NERVA and future mars stuff (Mariner, More Vikings, and climate probes)
after all, mars in the 70s and 80s were still mysterious until the 90s and 2000s, any Mars landing in 86 would need Climate, weather, and the conditions on the ground, and of the ground, to know what any landing would expect. the Landing pilot is picked for the person who is likely to land in the case of a problem, and the other guy who is more cautious is booted from the flight
NASA rightfully only has one shot to go and one chance at landing, all funding would be diverted to this goal, like apollo before it (lunar-focused probes)
you wouldn't want to get into mars orbit when a dust storm pops up
it's easy to see those existing contracts for TRW being converted to Mariner, as its early enough (summer of 70) to change the design
(in IRL Voyager was nearly canceled, and redone to be cheaper)

The best part of the book is when the program gets gutted, with no future after the first Landing (rightfully so, everyone knows the guys on Apollo 11, and no one cares about 12-17, 13 a bit more than usual), yes it is bad, but I see why, Mars, like the moon, is risky as hell, any flight has multiple "critical points of failure" where a crew could be stranded in Mars orbit, on Mars itself, or an abort which would kill any future programs (wasting the money to go to Mars and not land), to say nothing of the cost,

Some Voyage continuation TLs have a MEM do lunar missions, the most likely scenario is a post-Apollo retreat to LEO, maybe a lunar flight to Moonlab if it is still around, but just missions to Skylab with Apollo capsules is all i see in the post mars era
 
Nuclear tugs is just asking for political trouble (Cassini was protested for its 10 kg of Plutonium),
Yeah, every single time when an RTG is go for launch, there are protest, even despite the fact that the launchers are a lot safer then the ones that launched the first missions with a nuclear payload.
3A, a shuttle launched from Vandenberg would launch into orbit, release a satellite and deorbit and return to Vandenberg before a full orbit (launch, release, land)
Yeah i heard about that, it´s pretty ironic how much this never flown mission type influenced the final vehicle.
the problem with the shuttle was most if not all its good ideas were canned early on
exactly, they wanted to keep the costs down at the wrong end: RnD of the Shuttle-Systems basic design and the progression of it threw changes in technological knowledge.
the shuttle just put on a band-aid (another O-ring), or didn't fix the problem (tiles)
yeah, the first sollution worked out (as much a i hate the idea of putting humans on a Vehicle that included large SRB´s, those engineers did pretty well in changing that. And they did pretty well when they warned NASA that it´s to cold out there to launch Challenger. Yes: They haven´t designed it for this temperature in the first place: They only designed it for the temperature range they were asked for), the second was just dump. Yes: The shuttle-fleet would have had to go threw another long standdown, but it would have brought two things: 1st a much safer vehicle (and possibly lighter too) and 2nd lower costs, because the need to recheck thousands of individual tyles after every mission would have been gone for good.
had the shuttle continued its monopoly, god knows what changes would have been made for safety in the 90s, partly for safety, and to improve flight rates
Yeah i would have liked to see then, even despite the fact that it would have killed off most of the other LV´s we know and love.
My alternate TL has Canada buy orbiters and build its own site, allowing a flight rate of 24 or more a year to be achievable, and having the shuttle still launch stuff after Atlantis (challenger disaster in real life)
Oh, nice idea, i really have to check it out :)
NASA only saved less than 100 mil by canceling two LUNAR MISSIONS IRL, god knows what cuts they would make earlier for the Nuclear rocket and Skylab development
Yes, that´s just stupid. Humanity could have had so much more knowledge out of that. And yes: 100 million was a lot of money at that time, but still: That´s peanuts agains everything the military was spending, even at that time.
the Landing pilot is picked for the person who is likely to land in the case of a problem, and the other guy who is more cautious is booted from the flight
Yep, that´s desperation, pure desperation to land that thing. But it´s pretty dump too: If they would have lost the crew on the surface, i wouldn´t be surprised if the crewed mission (any crewed missions) would be canned for some time until the whole NASA-Management would have been replaced.
(in IRL Voyager was nearly canceled, and redone to be cheaper)
Yeah and even those cheaper probes aren´t completely done to this day... i wonder what would have happend with the full version.
 
 
Yep, that´s desperation, pure desperation to land that thing. But it´s pretty dump too: If they would have lost the crew on the surface, i wouldn´t be surprised if the crewed mission (any crewed missions) would be canned for some time until the whole NASA-Management would have been replaced.
The reason was if the Lander itself is good, but the landing radar or something fails (or just too windy), the guy would in fact land, just as Shepard would have done on 14, its worth the risk of having a guy more likely to land, then the guy aborting prematurely (had 11 done that, the "more than 20 seconds left" thesis would be used against them)

if any failure happens, either an abort, or crew being killed, would be almost equally bad, the mission being viewed as a waste of money and effort (10 Vb flights, 15 billion in flight hardware and lifters, and the travel time, not to mention development), had the ascent engine failed, like the LM, it was worth the risk

Yeah, every single time when an RTG is go for launch, there are protest, even despite the fact that the launchers are a lot safer then the ones that launched the first missions with a nuclear payload.
well, history like 3-mile island (there was a guy writing the rules around the radiation and how if the readings were X amount (recorded anywhere) the evacuation size would be half of Pennsylvania and big parts of other states. he turned on the news, and THAT DAY the number he put for that evacuation occurred, and he quickly upped it, to not get fired)
Chernobyl
or the crazy amount of incidents and releases

I get why the public is worried about nuclear stuff, but the 4kg rtg on Apollo 13 necessitated a second hair-raising maneuver to make it come down in the Mariana trench, when the only way it would affect anyone is if it hit someone
 
so I checked the book and it looks like Moonlab is in an equatorial orbit, meaning Lunar missions are "just" capable of being done with the Moonlab first plan
with lighter computers the fuel margins allow the task to be done

Off-topic but if i was running Apollo back in the day, i would have canned 18 and 19 and flew double LM missions, have a stocked LM land with supplies, and a second LM with crew stay for two weeks, would have been better science, and if Nixon had axed the second mission, would leave 16 as a insane science mission
and probably make 14 a J-mission (but i do get why NASA flew a regular H-mission instead)
 
istory like 3-mile island
Yeah, events like that give those protests credibility, but on the other side: It´s not a complete nuclear reactor flying into space with those missions, i really thing the danger and damage that happend regarding to douzends of Broken Arrow-Incidents is a lot higher. Damn it how many nuclear weapons are officially lost for decades now? Yeah: We don´t know about sowjet and russian losses of nuclear weapons, but i am shure they are there too. And when i think about that: Let´s just launch RTG´s into space, those things are designed to survive a launch failure in a condition that´s as good as humanly possible.
I get why the public is worried about nuclear stuff, but the 4kg rtg on Apollo 13 necessitated a second hair-raising maneuver to make it come down in the Mariana trench, when the only way it would affect anyone is if it hit someone
Yeah that´s exactly the point: It´s only a few kilos for every mission, not multiple tonnes of different nuclear material and thousends of tonnes of irradiated non-nuclear materials like in a reactor. Personally i am feeling more concerned about the fact that we have more nuclear reactors on (and in most cases under) the surface of our oceans, then on land. But here i see on the other side: As i heard some time ago, US Navy´s Naval Reactors celebrated more then 10.000 reactor-years over their whole fleet of reactors without a single catastrophic event. And those reactors were relatively crude designs in most cases. Yes, nuclear power has it´s dangers, but they can be controlled if done right and if someone likes to do it right, he should talk with the guys at Naval Reactors, because they obviously know their job. If my homecountry, germany would ever feel the need to put a nuclear-powere vessel into service, i really hope they talk to them first. Just to prevent design flaws and to secure the correct training for the crew.
and probably make 14 a J-mission (but i do get why NASA flew a regular H-mission instead)
Yeah, i would have liked to see that too, but i see reasoning for both possible options: On the one side they could have taken a little bit more downtime after Apollo 13 to get back online with the newest tech they had, probably swapping the crews of 14 and 15 to get the Apollo 14-crew more time to retrain to the J-Class-Tech, but on the other side: Getting back there with the things that already worked, isn´t a bad thing after a mishap at all. Fix what´s broken and check out if it has worked and then complete the preparation of the second generation of the vehicle with the fixes included.
 
unlike the Navy, most nuclear reactors are commercially owned and operate as such, three-mile island was a freak accident, and Chernobyl was like a NASA operation that the techs stumbled across. this leaves way more chances for trouble
the Navy has thankfully had little reactor trouble, but the soviets have had a few.

But media is media and having "nuclear reactor is safe" vs "why nuclear is bad" leaves one in the dust by a long shot, take a guess which

my favorite part in Titan is when a reporter asks about the tons of plutonium on Discovery, and the plans to shoot it down should it come toward earth

I will say the Challenger Doc on Netflix is amazing, but the Three-mile island made by the same team is less so, it gets the point across on the disaster, kind of, but it was a political shitshow
 
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