Mount Suribachi blows March 26, 1945
- Thread starter Commissar
- Start date
Delayed Allied victory, maybe resulting in drastic consequences if a nuclear bomb is dropped on japan, The war may go on until 1950s.
As you say, everyone in the vicinity has a very short lived if not elevating experience.
And with 60 k losses, the Allies have a big setback, over a quarter of the end kia at one drop.
Speaking of drops, the 2 atomic blasts several months later are somewhat erased in effectiveness and the Emperor may well have been reluctantly led to believe yet another divine wind is in the works. His abdication was a very iffy situation even with out such heavenly omens. And the US morale, which is said to have needed the boost with the flag raising(s) on Iwo Jima, would have instead festered and likely dealt a heavy blow. Hard to say, exactly. Too many variables.
And with 60 k losses, the Allies have a big setback, over a quarter of the end kia at one drop.
Speaking of drops, the 2 atomic blasts several months later are somewhat erased in effectiveness and the Emperor may well have been reluctantly led to believe yet another divine wind is in the works. His abdication was a very iffy situation even with out such heavenly omens. And the US morale, which is said to have needed the boost with the flag raising(s) on Iwo Jima, would have instead festered and likely dealt a heavy blow. Hard to say, exactly. Too many variables.
Well it would probably kick off the recriminations about whether the battle to take Iwo Jima was worth it earlier than in our timeline and take out a large chunk of the Marine Corps, but would it really make that much of a substansive change to things? Okay so they wont have it as an emergency alternative landing strip for the nuclear bombing missions five months later but would that really be insurmountable? They'd probably simply switch to taking Marcus Island if it was vital that an island in the region was needed.
Are you from an ATL? The Emperor never abdicated, he stayed on the throne until 1989.
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Are you from an ATL? The Emperor never abdicated, he stayed on the throne until 1989.
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True, and I was living in Japan a year later (1990). But it was being discussed, a total abdication in 1945. Nor did I say it happened, and apologize for implying that it did. What took place was an abdication in many militant's eyes, though, by the same ones pretty well running the country and having done numerous bloody intrigues in the previous decade. The reason for this is that what use is an emperor if he does not (technically, for in reality the militants controlled the emperor though intrigue and manuever) have total control, in this case taking orders from the US/MacArthur?
The point was that there were serious and very close run attempted coups in the last few days after the first dropping at Hiroshima, without any serious chance or evidence of a divine intervention. A blast from Iwo, especially a strange one without warning doing the very unlike in killing all in ships and on shore, would convince the ultra rightists just that, and it would have been a hand played in full.
By the way, massive volcanic explosions like that, without warning, almost never happen, and may never have happened. By either steam explosion or trapped volatiles let out of the pressurized liquid normally have days if not weeks of tremor and magma movement activity beforehand.
A more plausible scenario would have the US decide not to risk it after earthquake swarms and move to Marcus Island, etc. while in the middle of the months long invasion. Or at least call off offensive troops and maintain a skeleton force plus a blockade beyond a 20 mile radius.
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True, and I was living in Japan a year later (1990). But it was being discussed, a total abdication in 1945. Nor did I say it happened, and apologize for implying that it did. What took place was an abdication in many militant's eyes, though, by the same ones pretty well running the country and having done numerous bloody intrigues in the previous decade. The reason for this is that what use is an emperor if he does not (technically, for in reality the militants controlled the emperor though intrigue and manuever) have total control, in this case taking orders from the US/MacArthur?
The point was that there were serious and very close run attempted coups in the last few days after the first dropping at Hiroshima, without any serious chance or evidence of a divine intervention. A blast from Iwo, especially a strange one without warning doing the very unlike in killing all in ships and on shore, would convince the ultra rightists just that, and it would have been a hand played in full.
By the way, massive volcanic explosions like that, without warning, almost never happen, and may never have happened. By either steam explosion or trapped volatiles let out of the pressurized liquid normally have days if not weeks of tremor and magma movement activity beforehand.
A more plausible scenario would have the US decide not to risk it after earthquake swarms and move to Marcus Island, etc. while in the middle of the months long invasion. Or at least call off offensive troops and maintain a skeleton force plus a blockade beyond a 20 mile radius.
Commissar
Banned
With all the bombing, artillery, and rocket strikes in the fighting, who would notice?
The Island was made of fine Volcanic and Sulfuric Ash after all.
I believe my grandfather was at the battle of Iwo Jima. I believe you just butterflied me away. 
Well, the japanese would be the first to notice as every cave suddenly became much warmer. Who knows, maybe on March 24 the tremors are felt by everyone and the US begins to evacuate the troops and on March 25 the magnachambers are so close to the surface that the japanese cant stand the heat and starts to surrender in droves.
Alex Richards
Donor
To compare, you're basically asking for a Krakatoa, Vesuvius or Pelé style eruption. If you don't notice the treamors beforehand (very unlikely as this close would mean a major earthquake, toppling buildings etc.), then there's a large window of perhaps 2-3 days before the pyroclastic flows and major collapse of the island occur after the start of the eruption. Given the clear signs of an eruption, you can bet that the marines will be evacuating sharpish.
Because volcanic swarms have a different signature, I guess. Not that the sensitivity of earthquakes in 1945 siesmographs is familiar to me. The ones they had in 1912 with the Alaskan mega explosion, Katmai (Novarupta, actually) was unable to be pinpointed, but many advances were made in the 1930's, hopefully including depth of the earthquake which would have solved everything.
Besides, they would have observable ones that could be felt while no or few artillery barrages were going on. With tens of thousands of observers, it would be carried up the chain of command. At the first sign of trouble, they would fly a seismograph in, if they did not in fact do that.
I did a quick search and found nothing on a front page. Also the history of the volcano would tell you of the risk factors. I am rather sure that the Navy/etc at least contemplated the risk.
Besides, they would have observable ones that could be felt while no or few artillery barrages were going on. With tens of thousands of observers, it would be carried up the chain of command. At the first sign of trouble, they would fly a seismograph in, if they did not in fact do that.
I did a quick search and found nothing on a front page. Also the history of the volcano would tell you of the risk factors. I am rather sure that the Navy/etc at least contemplated the risk.
Commissar
Banned
Er, the Island was Volcanic and Sulfuric Ash that hardened in the air. It was already unbearably hot. Marines described it as hell and the fighting was constant with volcanic and sulfuric ash storms being quite common.
The ground was constantly shaking from the continuous shelling and bombing of the Island and explosions of Japanese and American Ammo Dumps.
Combat Footage from the Island was constantly jerky, even when the cameraman was sitting still.
Again who is going to really notice that the extinct volcano is no longer extinct.
Besides even if they notice, its too late to evacuate much of the men in time anyway. THere is no harbor or docking facilities for rapid loading of men.
except for the numerous (hundreds of them) landing craft and ships that brought them to begin with. Abandoning the equipment would certainly be in order and provide the space. Casualties would be heavy of course.
Commissar
Banned
Many of which have to beach themselves, be loaded with numerous wounded first then be floated off with the tides.
Also quite a few have been destroyed.
You are looking at a two week long operation which also has to give the Navy time to clear and brace for a Tsunami.
So in reality, the Flag Raisers are put on Planes and flown out and the rest of the men are abandoned to their fate so the Navy can clear and brace.
Men are replaceable easily in this war, ships are not and given a choice, Nimitz will save the Naval Ships over the Marines if he has any warning.
Commissar
Banned
Any ship within 20 miles of Suribachi is destroyed or sunk. outside that circle to another 20 miles, destroyers will be badly damaged if not sunk and Cruiser Class ships will suffer moderate to heavy damage.
Outside the secondary circle ships that take immediate action should avoid damage and most Carriers are out this far if not farther.
Um... no. The US was already running short of manpower by the end of 1944. By this point the Marines are switching from all-volunteer to conscript just to fill the ranks.
In the ETO several divisions were stripped of personnel to reinforce those that had been in combat.
Manpower was not a bottomless resource for the US. For China, perhaps, but the Chinese weren't going to be replacing Marines.