yboxman
Banned
Post #11 Grim as a famished wounded wolf
Having read a bit more about Gallipoli and Gorlice Tarnow and having considered the preference of the audience I have come to the following conclusions:
1. G-Tarnow is likely to take place as planned (rather than an early strike Vs Serbia) simply due to the momentum of military planning. It was the result of such a bitter factional fight between the "Easterners" and "Westerners" in OKH that changing course at the 11th hour (The Cilician operation starts around March 5th, a bit under two months before G.Tarnow) seems unlikely.
2. A Cilician operation in March 1915 probably obviates the Naval attempt at the Dardanelles in march 18th 1915. Earlier naval attempts take place as OTL, but without a substantial army support in reserve to occupy Gallipoli and Constantinopole it seems even more nuts than OTL to try to force the straits by naval power alone.
3. What flows from #2 is that Venizelos government never falls to begin with. OTL, the trigger for that was the Russian Veto on any Greek participation in Gallipoli (since they didn’t want king Constantine in Constantinopole) and Venizelos's willingness to sign away Western Thrace to Bulgaria in return for promises of gains in Asia minor and boots on the Ground in Gallipoli. Both together basically pulled the political rug out from under V-Zs feet. TTL, the British are not aiming for a Gallipoli landing in March. The British still try to woo the Greeks into joining the war but they aim at persuading them into landing in Izmir/Smyrna in order to divert Ottoman forces from reinforcing Adana (And the Dardanelles, should that become pertinent in the future). Venizelos manages to pull Greece into the war by April 20th, but only against the OE, not Germany or Austria-Hungary. Supplies freely flow into Serbia Via Saloniki however. The 3.5 divisions (Half the Greek army. The rest is busy guarding the Bulgarian border) the Hellas army land mange to take the Chiron peninsula But are Bottled up by the ottomans by May 1st.
4. Unfortunately, while getting out of the war now and relying on Anglo-French gurantees to prevent a post war carve-up may be in the best interests of the OE, The entry of Greece into the war, make that more difficult. Also, I've come to the conclusion that the CUP, in spite of the defeats inflicted on the OE, is unlikely to be overthrown absent a direct threat to Istanbul. Like the Bolsheviks, they had managed to establish a semi-totalitarian apparatus in the OEs centers of power and purged anyone likely to overthrow them pre WWI. Likewise, the only power within the CUP which seems likely to displace Enver is Tlaat- and from all I could read about him he seems to be unlikely to be the author of either an all-out confortation with him or a change of course placing the future survival of the OE in Entente hands.
There falls a perpetual snow on a broken plain,
And though the twilight filled with flakes the white earth joins the sky.
Grim as a famished wounded wolf, his lean neck in a chain,
The Turk stands up to die
April 28th, 1915
People
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Josef_Ferdinand,_Prince_of_Tuscany
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Conrad_von_Hötzendorf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_von_Mackensen
General Mackensen was a proper Prussian gentleman. At the moment, however, his blistering curses would do a Silesian Hog farmer credit.
"You were the ones who pushed for this offensive! And now, the moment I have brought a dozen of Germany's finest divisions to shore up your own front, half of your own troops are withdrawn? Must I face 20 Russian divisions with but four Austrian divisions? Scoundrel!"
The Austrian chief of staff stiffens. It is clear that Germany is the senior partner in the alliance, but he nonetheless holds higher rank than this Prussian relic and he refuses to be addressed in this manner.
"We did not expect to be stabbed in the back by our supposed allies. Our valiant men are facing an Assault by Italians three times their number! Would you have us abandon Trieste and Vienna?"
"Had you been wise you would have given the Itallians Trieste in return for their support- then, we would have been in the streets of Paris and St Petersburg rather than planning to retake Lvov! As it is the Itallian army had barely made it across the Isonozo (1). Let them bang their heads against the Alps for as long as they please- you can hold back their armies with mere divisions. We finally have a concentration of power sufficient to envelop the Russian army- let us make use of it!"
Conrad grits his teeth. What makes this galling is that this is, in fact, the course he himself had advocated to the emperor. That does not stop him from the using the Emperor's own arguments against the Prussian.
"There are internal political issues stemming from the Italian invasion which must be taken into consideration (2) as well. Not to mention the danger that the Rumanians might seek to emulate their Latin kin. Already, the Greeks had followed suit"
"Only against the Ottomans! And if we strike swiftly and surely against the Russians then surely our Kaiser's imperial cousin in Romania (3) will reconsider their proper allegiances and interests (4). We MUST strike before the old man of Europe breaths out his last breath and allows the British to replenish the Russian arsenal (5)!"
Conrad sighs.
"And we will- but we will have to use what we have. I have managed to convince the emperor to keep most of the Artillery reserve in place at least. How long will this delay your plans?"
Mackensen carries out a swift calculation in his head. Even at his advanced age timetables and tables of organization are a second nature to him. "A week. Perhaps two. I will try to implore OKH for additional forces- but we dare not wait any longer. More than that and the Russians might catch their breath".
Istanbul, May 1st, 1915
People
Henry Morgenthau
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Morgenthau,_Sr.
American-Jewish ambassador to the Ottomans (the Jewish part is not incidential- President Wilson in an his odd pro Jewish brand of anti-semitism viewed him as a natural choice as he was "closer to the asiatic type" and could act as a bridge towards them)
Tlaat Pasha
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talaat_Pasha
Party boss of the CUP, interior minister and executioner, if not initiator, of the Armenian/Assyrian/Greek Genocide and de-facto civilian ruler of the OE during most of the war.
Tlaat Pasha's laugh seemed forced, considered Henry Morgenthau. It was odd. Before the war he had begun to consider the jovial Tlaat a friend, and had thought that the feeling was repricophial.
That was Before, of course. Before the arrests, before the deportations, before the massacres and rumors of far, far worse reaching him from the Ottoman interior. Horror had descended upon the Armenian, Greek and Jewish communities of Anatolia, as Muslim refugees from Cilicia, East Anatolia and the Aegean coast spread throughout the land. Ordinary Turks, weary after a century of defeat and expulsion, fearful of the gathering force at the mouth of the Dardanelles, and assured by their leaders that their enemies meant to place their Christian and Jewish neighbors over them (6) had unleashed all of their fear of anhaliation upon their Jewish and Christian neighbors. Morgenthau had read his history of the Russo-Turkish wars and the Greek war of independence. He had heard first hand accounts of the Balkan war. He knew this was nothing new, and should not be expected.
What was new were the rumors he was hearing of a shadowy, CUP agency dedicated exclusively to ensure that however reduced Turkey might be in territory when the war was over it would contain no minorities whatsoever (7). A chill passed over his spine as he realized that if such a committee exists, then this man surely knew and approved of it.
"You cannot expect me to allow Jewish men to cross the Bulgarian border. We made that mistake last year- and look what happened! The ungrateful curs became hounds in the hands of their British masters and turned upon us. Even, now they ravage the Haram-Al-Sharif, where our prophet ascended to heaven (8). I assure you, no harm will come to those of our citizens whom we are resettling in the Interior (9) or those who are drafted to the labor Battalions (10). "
"What about the women? The children? Surely they are no threat to you?"
Tlaat spreads his hands.
"Who would be willing to support them? Who will pay for their passage? And why should wives and children wish to desert their husbands and their homes? (11)."
"The British have assured me that any Jewish resident of the Ottoman empire, foreign national or otherwise, will be well received if he wishes, of his own free will, to leave the empire. The same holds for the Assyrians, Mandeans and Yezidis. The French will take in any Maronites and Mallachites, and the Italians any Orthodox and Armenians (10)"
Tlaat grunts. Morgenthau wishes he could believe that some residual conscience or sense of friendship moved him. In truth, he suspects Tlaat is simply considering how great of a burden the expelled women and children will be on the Entente… and how much he himself stands to gain by looting their properties in the confusion of the exodus.
Finally, Tlaat nods. "Very well. Any who wish to may leave- so long as they renounce any right to return or to the property they leave behind. Their husbands will be permitted to join them when the war is over (12)"
As Morgenthau turns to leave Tlaats mocking voice freezes him in his tracks.
"Tell me, would you go to so much effort if the Jews had remained loyal and the Armenians were the only ones to Rebel?"
Without turning Morgentahu replies.
"I pray to God I would!"
Ruins of Troy, Ottoman Empire, May 20th 2300, 1915
Liman Sanders is tired of arguing with Enver Pasha. He is tired of the attempt of the military ignoramous to dictate critical decisions on the basis of what appears to be no more than fantastic, wishful thinking. It is precisely that madness which nearly decapitated the main Ottoman forces in the caucaus. What the Russian had failed to do, Enver, with some help from the weather, had succeeded.
Had he not so weakened the Ottoman forces then his attempt to repulse the British at Adana might have succeeded, or at least kept the British occupied in that Malarial swamp throughout the summer.
Instead, he had wrecked the carefully husbanded reserves of the Turkish military Von Sanders had so painfully reconstructed in a counterattack against a superior force- and then further bled his force dry by jousting with the Greeks in Izmir. Not only that, he dared to boast of his "victory". What manner of victory left the enemy entrenched on your soil? What manner of victory tied up your meager transportation in deporting mostly harmless Greek peaseants to… well, Von Sanders preferred not to think of where the Greeks were being sent to. The Americans, at least, had been willing and permitted to pick up those Greek women and children left unmolested by the Reich's "Allies".
Now, the battle hardened British reserves pinned up in Cilicia had been released by their Italian replacements. Those same Italians we sallying out of Rhodes, threatening a landing in Anatalya for which not Even Enver dared suggest they had troops to defend. And the British? The British were gathering at Lemnos. Where would they strike? The defenses of the Dardanelles and Gallipoli were immeasurably stronger than two months ago, though the divisions guarding them were sadly depleted by the demands of the Cilician and Izmir front. The British would never be so foolish as to land there (13). No, they would land here, in troy. It was the Asian side of the narrows which was, contrary to intuition the most vulnerable to landings. Capture, troy, advance up Marmara coast, destroy the minefields and cut his European forces from Resupply (14). As an added bonus, the Izmir front forces would be cut off from reinforcements.
Well, he would not play their game. He had eight divisions at his disposal in the Straits (15). One was keeping order in the capital. Two were in Edirne, deterring the Bulgarians from choosing the wrong side. If need be one could be rushed further south to Gallipoli.
Three of his divisions were here, in Asia, to eliminate any possibility of the British taking Troy. One of his divisions was keeping guard over the neck of the peninsula, to ensure that no attempt would be made to cut off his forces
All he needed to do was hold one for four more months. If he could do that, his instructions assured him, Russia's humiliation, begun a week ago, would be complete. With the Eastern front secure, Serbia would be crushed, spurring Bulgaria to enter the war on the correct side. Once it did, his shortage of munitions and men would be at end and any Entente attempt to take the straits futile. Let them waste their men and treasure in the Deserts of Arabia and the Mountains of Anatolia- so long as Germany held the straits, it's purpose was served.
Enver is at him again. He insists that the British will land at Izmir to reinforce the Greeks and aid them in despoiling the Turkish nation. He is insisting Sanders release a division to help him finish off the Greeks before the British land. But Enver no longer holds absolute power in Istanbul and Sanders has powerful backers. Their argument begins to heat up when a messenger rushes into Sander's headquarters.
Coast off Goba Tepe, Western Gallipoli , May 21st 0030, 1915
General Birdwood paces the decks of the freighter, impressed by the eerie calm of his troops. When he remarks on the oddity to a captain, the antipodean, Shea O'Conner by name, shrugs.
"Well, the thing is sir, we've done this before. Myself, I took a bullet at Jaffe, had another crack at it in Mersin, and just when I was recovering from a bout of Malaria under the tender care of a pretty bird in Cyprus what do they do? Well, Blimey if they don't land me in Sidon to help the Hebes keep the Frogs out of Palestine. I've seen the Abduls and they're nothing to get excited about. The important thing is to keep your nerve, advance into the fire and dig in. Do that and things will sort themselves out. (16)"
With men like these, Birdwood muses, how could he fail?
Sedd el Baher, May 21st 0500
Admiral Robeck is uneasy. He is new to his command and has had only ten weeks to get used to his new found perspective (17)
It is the greatest Naval force ever assembled in the Meditaranian. 12 Battleships bristling with guns heavier than anything a lad based battery can hold. Nearly five dozen destroyers to act as mine sweepers (18). They are not the best of the fleet of course. Most are obsolete and would not last two minutes in a line of battle against the German navy. But he also has half a dozen of the new-fangled submarines as well as a wing of seaplanes to aid him (19) in spotting the Ottoman artillery. He had taken casualties in clearing the first lines of mines. But as far as Kephet point the way is clear.
His orders are unambiguous. He is, in support of the land forces assaulting the south and west of the peninsula, to force the narrows, whatever the casualties, and block any reinforcements landing from Asia.
Well, he will not shirk his responsibilities. "Do or Die, Paddy. Do or Die" he mutters under his breath before ordering his fleet into their battle lines.
Goba Tepe, Western Gallipoli , May 21st 1200, 1915
Colonel Halil Sami Bey maintains an Icy calm as he dictated his message.
"The enemy is landing his main force in Europe, not Asia, the West, not the East. I Repeat, I am nearly certain that Goba Tepe and Cape Hellas are the main landing points. Request permission to move the reserve regiments from Mudros to Goba Tebe at once. I require urgent reinforcements to my sector at one. Request confirmation. "
Silently, he curses the damn German. He had told him the British would land in his sector- but he lacked the authority to order the reserves to rush in to fill the breach. By the time (20) authorization would be given it might be too late, and the heights of Sari Bair captured.
Sofia, June 1st, 1915.
King Ferdinand paces the throne room. All about him great events are unfolding and he must make a difficult decision- and push it through his fractious cabinet. He may, after all, call himself Tsar, but he is well aware he does not hold the autarcic power of his namesake to the North. Time is wasting though, and he must make a decision.
To the North, the Russians are being pushed back to the Vistula and show no signs of ending their retreat. But nor do they show any sign of breaking. The Germans are assuring him that soon Serbia would be defeated and Macedonia would be his if only he joined before the issue was decided… but so far Serbia had repeatedly demonstrated the inadequacy of the Austrian forces.
To the south, the British had, with appaling casualties, destroyed or captured the Ottoman ninth division and now dominated the southern Gallipoli peninsula and the European side of the Crucial narrows. Maidos had fallen to them, although some Ottoman mines still lay in the Northern Dardanelles and Ottoman artilary on the Asian sure continued to wreck havoc on the minesweepers (21). Some of the British ships, as well as Submarines, had penetrated the Marmara, and were bombarding the Panicked Ottoman capital. The Goeben, instigator of the Ottoman entry into the war, is sunk, though not without a stiff fight.
To turn on the Entente, in spite of the rewards offered by the Germans seems foolhardy with the larger issue in such doubt. To remain neutral risks watching any potential gains eliminated. Declaring war on the Ottomans however, could be done without involving him in the larger war, would win him back Adrianopole, and might, if he acted swiftly enough, place his troops in Constantinopole, granting him a far better negotiating position Vs the Entente. Already they were offering him parts of Vardar Macedonia. If he held the Bosphorus how high might their offers rise? And after all it was clear that there was no risk attacking the Ottoman empire would lead to war with Germany- after all, they have failed to do so in the case of Greece.
His decision made, he calls his ministers and generals together to announce it.
Bosphorus, June 5th, 1915.
As the ferry to Bursa leaves the jetty Tlaat Pasha weeps. Behind him, the charges set beneath Hagia Sophia explode and the massive edifice crumbles and descends into the blazing inferno that is Istanbul.
In some sense it is a relief. Like many of the CUP leadership, like many of the "Turkish" nation he has dedicated his life to, Tlaat Pasha is a refugee, his former home now swallowed up by the Christian nations of the Balkans. For three Generations, Turks have grown used to losing wars and watching as the Christians forced Millions of Muslims to leave their homes and flee into Istanbul. Now, Istanbul is gone. Russia or Britian, Greece or Bulgaria, may win the race to it's ruins- but it would be a hollow victory.
As for the Turks, the true Turks, well, they were merely being forced back into their first conquests, into the Anatolian plateau. There they would make their last stand. They might be defeated, but they would never surrender- whatever the puppet Sultan the British planned on Installing in the ruins of Istanbul said.
Ankara, June 12th, 1915
"We were defeated by superior forces on the field of battle and we face now a choice. Do we place our necks beneath the heels of our conquerors? Do we open our women's legs to those who would defile hem? Do we place our fates in their hands? Do we dare, after all we have endured at the hands of the infidel over the past century?. That is one choice, the choice of shame and cowardinace. I offer you another choice. To Die on our feet. To fight, and keep on fighting. Not for victory. Not for survival.. No, I call on you to fight because it is better to die on our feet as men than to die on our knees as slaves to the Greeks and Armenians and Jews. Who is with me?!"
Enver Pasha, speech to the CUP central comittee and selected officers of the army of Anatolian resistance
(1) OTL, The Italian assault hit the spring floods, making the Isonozo a truly formidable barrier. They were also facing an Austria which had already crushed the main Russian armies. TTL, The Russian army has not yet been assaulted and the Isonozo remains fordable.
(2) Lobbying by Croats and German Tyrolese, both of whom overwhelmingly support the Hapsburgs and are overrepresented in the officer corps and in the court.
(3) A Hohenzollern got the throne of Romania in 1866 following Bismarkian horse trading with Russia.
(4) OTLs Gorlice Tarnow was aimed partly at keeping Italy and Romania out of the war by demonstrating CP supremacy in the East. They were too late for Italy but GT probably kept Romania out of the war for a year- and also convinced Bulgaria to join the war.
(5) Which the shell crisis, the overburdened state of the Russian railways and a variety of other factors will prevent the British from doing. At least in 1915. But the Germans don’t know that- OTL they were expecting an Ottoman collapse and dreaded the revival of the Russian steamroller.
(6) Which isn't very far from the truth, of course.
(7) Needless to say Tlaat is about as secular as they come. But this is about group identity, not theology.
(8) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_genocide. it starts earlier OTL as the Greek army advances on Izmir.
(9) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Battalions_(Ottoman_Empire). So much for the claim that the Armenian genocide was the unplanned result of genuine attempt at forcible resettlement of a ddisloyal population in the Interior.
(10) OTL, one reason the Armenian Genocide took place early, while the Greek Genocide was not so lethal was that Tsarist Russia did not want to take in useless mouths and tried to discourage their entry into the empire until 1917. The Greeks took in anyone who could make it out. Which resulted in massive starvation, especially given the national schism and the Bulgarian entry into the war.
(11) Notably absent are the Russians. And the Greeks- they do not wish to encourage de-hellenization of Asia minor.
(12) Why Is Tlaat being relatively accommodating? Because unlike the Nazis the CUP had a "Logical" reason to eliminate their minorities- they were a military threat. Women and children OTOH are a military burden. And while the CUP shares some similarities with European totalitarian parties they have not undergone quite the same anti-rational process of ideological radicalization their European counterparts did in the interwar years. Also, the Ottomans are more dependent on their allies and the Americans than WWII Germany was- they need to take their opinions into consideration.
(13) NEVER underestimate the foolishness of a British general.
(14) OTL. Sanders was absolutely convinced the British would land in Asia- he very nearly failed to reinforce Kemal against the ANAZAC landings due to his fear this was a diversion.
(15) Between troops lost in Adana, the Greek landings in Izmir and even worse luck Vs the Russians, the Straits are short a crucial three divisions.
(16) Having troops who are experienced in amphibious landings, and commanders who have some idea of what can go wrong in such a landing is a great aid. The Ottoman troops facing them do not benefit from the same experience as the troops who faced the landings in the Levant are in Syria or Cilicia. That said, Gallipoli is not Cilicia.
(17) OTL, he assumed command two weeks before the naval attempt on the Dardanelles. TTL, he has more time at the helm and has also overseen the Jaffe and Cilicia landings.
(18) OTL, the initial attempts to clear mines were stymied by the fact that the minesweepers were crewed by civilians who were risk averse. An earlier East-Med commitment TTL weeds them out by May.
(19) OTL, submarines arrived in force only after the landings took place and the naval option was abandoned. Sea planes proved useless in the march-April weather (Seas were too rough or not sufficiently windy to take off) and came into use only in May after the initial landings were contained.
(20) Mustafa Kemal also lacked the authority- but he decided asking for forgiveness was better than asking for permission. This, if you will, was the measure of his greatness. Not his tactical capabilities, which were remarkable but hardly unique, but the self-assurance of acting upon his convictions (which, it might be noted, were not always correct).
(21) They had a limited supply and production capability up to August OTL. So no, they can't just fill up the entire straits with naval mines.
Having read a bit more about Gallipoli and Gorlice Tarnow and having considered the preference of the audience I have come to the following conclusions:
1. G-Tarnow is likely to take place as planned (rather than an early strike Vs Serbia) simply due to the momentum of military planning. It was the result of such a bitter factional fight between the "Easterners" and "Westerners" in OKH that changing course at the 11th hour (The Cilician operation starts around March 5th, a bit under two months before G.Tarnow) seems unlikely.
2. A Cilician operation in March 1915 probably obviates the Naval attempt at the Dardanelles in march 18th 1915. Earlier naval attempts take place as OTL, but without a substantial army support in reserve to occupy Gallipoli and Constantinopole it seems even more nuts than OTL to try to force the straits by naval power alone.
3. What flows from #2 is that Venizelos government never falls to begin with. OTL, the trigger for that was the Russian Veto on any Greek participation in Gallipoli (since they didn’t want king Constantine in Constantinopole) and Venizelos's willingness to sign away Western Thrace to Bulgaria in return for promises of gains in Asia minor and boots on the Ground in Gallipoli. Both together basically pulled the political rug out from under V-Zs feet. TTL, the British are not aiming for a Gallipoli landing in March. The British still try to woo the Greeks into joining the war but they aim at persuading them into landing in Izmir/Smyrna in order to divert Ottoman forces from reinforcing Adana (And the Dardanelles, should that become pertinent in the future). Venizelos manages to pull Greece into the war by April 20th, but only against the OE, not Germany or Austria-Hungary. Supplies freely flow into Serbia Via Saloniki however. The 3.5 divisions (Half the Greek army. The rest is busy guarding the Bulgarian border) the Hellas army land mange to take the Chiron peninsula But are Bottled up by the ottomans by May 1st.
4. Unfortunately, while getting out of the war now and relying on Anglo-French gurantees to prevent a post war carve-up may be in the best interests of the OE, The entry of Greece into the war, make that more difficult. Also, I've come to the conclusion that the CUP, in spite of the defeats inflicted on the OE, is unlikely to be overthrown absent a direct threat to Istanbul. Like the Bolsheviks, they had managed to establish a semi-totalitarian apparatus in the OEs centers of power and purged anyone likely to overthrow them pre WWI. Likewise, the only power within the CUP which seems likely to displace Enver is Tlaat- and from all I could read about him he seems to be unlikely to be the author of either an all-out confortation with him or a change of course placing the future survival of the OE in Entente hands.
There falls a perpetual snow on a broken plain,
And though the twilight filled with flakes the white earth joins the sky.
Grim as a famished wounded wolf, his lean neck in a chain,
The Turk stands up to die
April 28th, 1915
People
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Josef_Ferdinand,_Prince_of_Tuscany
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Conrad_von_Hötzendorf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_von_Mackensen
General Mackensen was a proper Prussian gentleman. At the moment, however, his blistering curses would do a Silesian Hog farmer credit.
"You were the ones who pushed for this offensive! And now, the moment I have brought a dozen of Germany's finest divisions to shore up your own front, half of your own troops are withdrawn? Must I face 20 Russian divisions with but four Austrian divisions? Scoundrel!"
The Austrian chief of staff stiffens. It is clear that Germany is the senior partner in the alliance, but he nonetheless holds higher rank than this Prussian relic and he refuses to be addressed in this manner.
"We did not expect to be stabbed in the back by our supposed allies. Our valiant men are facing an Assault by Italians three times their number! Would you have us abandon Trieste and Vienna?"
"Had you been wise you would have given the Itallians Trieste in return for their support- then, we would have been in the streets of Paris and St Petersburg rather than planning to retake Lvov! As it is the Itallian army had barely made it across the Isonozo (1). Let them bang their heads against the Alps for as long as they please- you can hold back their armies with mere divisions. We finally have a concentration of power sufficient to envelop the Russian army- let us make use of it!"
Conrad grits his teeth. What makes this galling is that this is, in fact, the course he himself had advocated to the emperor. That does not stop him from the using the Emperor's own arguments against the Prussian.
"There are internal political issues stemming from the Italian invasion which must be taken into consideration (2) as well. Not to mention the danger that the Rumanians might seek to emulate their Latin kin. Already, the Greeks had followed suit"
"Only against the Ottomans! And if we strike swiftly and surely against the Russians then surely our Kaiser's imperial cousin in Romania (3) will reconsider their proper allegiances and interests (4). We MUST strike before the old man of Europe breaths out his last breath and allows the British to replenish the Russian arsenal (5)!"
Conrad sighs.
"And we will- but we will have to use what we have. I have managed to convince the emperor to keep most of the Artillery reserve in place at least. How long will this delay your plans?"
Mackensen carries out a swift calculation in his head. Even at his advanced age timetables and tables of organization are a second nature to him. "A week. Perhaps two. I will try to implore OKH for additional forces- but we dare not wait any longer. More than that and the Russians might catch their breath".
Istanbul, May 1st, 1915
People
Henry Morgenthau
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Morgenthau,_Sr.
American-Jewish ambassador to the Ottomans (the Jewish part is not incidential- President Wilson in an his odd pro Jewish brand of anti-semitism viewed him as a natural choice as he was "closer to the asiatic type" and could act as a bridge towards them)
Tlaat Pasha
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talaat_Pasha
Party boss of the CUP, interior minister and executioner, if not initiator, of the Armenian/Assyrian/Greek Genocide and de-facto civilian ruler of the OE during most of the war.
Tlaat Pasha's laugh seemed forced, considered Henry Morgenthau. It was odd. Before the war he had begun to consider the jovial Tlaat a friend, and had thought that the feeling was repricophial.
That was Before, of course. Before the arrests, before the deportations, before the massacres and rumors of far, far worse reaching him from the Ottoman interior. Horror had descended upon the Armenian, Greek and Jewish communities of Anatolia, as Muslim refugees from Cilicia, East Anatolia and the Aegean coast spread throughout the land. Ordinary Turks, weary after a century of defeat and expulsion, fearful of the gathering force at the mouth of the Dardanelles, and assured by their leaders that their enemies meant to place their Christian and Jewish neighbors over them (6) had unleashed all of their fear of anhaliation upon their Jewish and Christian neighbors. Morgenthau had read his history of the Russo-Turkish wars and the Greek war of independence. He had heard first hand accounts of the Balkan war. He knew this was nothing new, and should not be expected.
What was new were the rumors he was hearing of a shadowy, CUP agency dedicated exclusively to ensure that however reduced Turkey might be in territory when the war was over it would contain no minorities whatsoever (7). A chill passed over his spine as he realized that if such a committee exists, then this man surely knew and approved of it.
"You cannot expect me to allow Jewish men to cross the Bulgarian border. We made that mistake last year- and look what happened! The ungrateful curs became hounds in the hands of their British masters and turned upon us. Even, now they ravage the Haram-Al-Sharif, where our prophet ascended to heaven (8). I assure you, no harm will come to those of our citizens whom we are resettling in the Interior (9) or those who are drafted to the labor Battalions (10). "
"What about the women? The children? Surely they are no threat to you?"
Tlaat spreads his hands.
"Who would be willing to support them? Who will pay for their passage? And why should wives and children wish to desert their husbands and their homes? (11)."
"The British have assured me that any Jewish resident of the Ottoman empire, foreign national or otherwise, will be well received if he wishes, of his own free will, to leave the empire. The same holds for the Assyrians, Mandeans and Yezidis. The French will take in any Maronites and Mallachites, and the Italians any Orthodox and Armenians (10)"
Tlaat grunts. Morgenthau wishes he could believe that some residual conscience or sense of friendship moved him. In truth, he suspects Tlaat is simply considering how great of a burden the expelled women and children will be on the Entente… and how much he himself stands to gain by looting their properties in the confusion of the exodus.
Finally, Tlaat nods. "Very well. Any who wish to may leave- so long as they renounce any right to return or to the property they leave behind. Their husbands will be permitted to join them when the war is over (12)"
As Morgenthau turns to leave Tlaats mocking voice freezes him in his tracks.
"Tell me, would you go to so much effort if the Jews had remained loyal and the Armenians were the only ones to Rebel?"
Without turning Morgentahu replies.
"I pray to God I would!"
Ruins of Troy, Ottoman Empire, May 20th 2300, 1915
Liman Sanders is tired of arguing with Enver Pasha. He is tired of the attempt of the military ignoramous to dictate critical decisions on the basis of what appears to be no more than fantastic, wishful thinking. It is precisely that madness which nearly decapitated the main Ottoman forces in the caucaus. What the Russian had failed to do, Enver, with some help from the weather, had succeeded.
Had he not so weakened the Ottoman forces then his attempt to repulse the British at Adana might have succeeded, or at least kept the British occupied in that Malarial swamp throughout the summer.
Instead, he had wrecked the carefully husbanded reserves of the Turkish military Von Sanders had so painfully reconstructed in a counterattack against a superior force- and then further bled his force dry by jousting with the Greeks in Izmir. Not only that, he dared to boast of his "victory". What manner of victory left the enemy entrenched on your soil? What manner of victory tied up your meager transportation in deporting mostly harmless Greek peaseants to… well, Von Sanders preferred not to think of where the Greeks were being sent to. The Americans, at least, had been willing and permitted to pick up those Greek women and children left unmolested by the Reich's "Allies".
Now, the battle hardened British reserves pinned up in Cilicia had been released by their Italian replacements. Those same Italians we sallying out of Rhodes, threatening a landing in Anatalya for which not Even Enver dared suggest they had troops to defend. And the British? The British were gathering at Lemnos. Where would they strike? The defenses of the Dardanelles and Gallipoli were immeasurably stronger than two months ago, though the divisions guarding them were sadly depleted by the demands of the Cilician and Izmir front. The British would never be so foolish as to land there (13). No, they would land here, in troy. It was the Asian side of the narrows which was, contrary to intuition the most vulnerable to landings. Capture, troy, advance up Marmara coast, destroy the minefields and cut his European forces from Resupply (14). As an added bonus, the Izmir front forces would be cut off from reinforcements.
Well, he would not play their game. He had eight divisions at his disposal in the Straits (15). One was keeping order in the capital. Two were in Edirne, deterring the Bulgarians from choosing the wrong side. If need be one could be rushed further south to Gallipoli.
Three of his divisions were here, in Asia, to eliminate any possibility of the British taking Troy. One of his divisions was keeping guard over the neck of the peninsula, to ensure that no attempt would be made to cut off his forces
All he needed to do was hold one for four more months. If he could do that, his instructions assured him, Russia's humiliation, begun a week ago, would be complete. With the Eastern front secure, Serbia would be crushed, spurring Bulgaria to enter the war on the correct side. Once it did, his shortage of munitions and men would be at end and any Entente attempt to take the straits futile. Let them waste their men and treasure in the Deserts of Arabia and the Mountains of Anatolia- so long as Germany held the straits, it's purpose was served.
Enver is at him again. He insists that the British will land at Izmir to reinforce the Greeks and aid them in despoiling the Turkish nation. He is insisting Sanders release a division to help him finish off the Greeks before the British land. But Enver no longer holds absolute power in Istanbul and Sanders has powerful backers. Their argument begins to heat up when a messenger rushes into Sander's headquarters.
Coast off Goba Tepe, Western Gallipoli , May 21st 0030, 1915
General Birdwood paces the decks of the freighter, impressed by the eerie calm of his troops. When he remarks on the oddity to a captain, the antipodean, Shea O'Conner by name, shrugs.
"Well, the thing is sir, we've done this before. Myself, I took a bullet at Jaffe, had another crack at it in Mersin, and just when I was recovering from a bout of Malaria under the tender care of a pretty bird in Cyprus what do they do? Well, Blimey if they don't land me in Sidon to help the Hebes keep the Frogs out of Palestine. I've seen the Abduls and they're nothing to get excited about. The important thing is to keep your nerve, advance into the fire and dig in. Do that and things will sort themselves out. (16)"
With men like these, Birdwood muses, how could he fail?
Sedd el Baher, May 21st 0500
Admiral Robeck is uneasy. He is new to his command and has had only ten weeks to get used to his new found perspective (17)
It is the greatest Naval force ever assembled in the Meditaranian. 12 Battleships bristling with guns heavier than anything a lad based battery can hold. Nearly five dozen destroyers to act as mine sweepers (18). They are not the best of the fleet of course. Most are obsolete and would not last two minutes in a line of battle against the German navy. But he also has half a dozen of the new-fangled submarines as well as a wing of seaplanes to aid him (19) in spotting the Ottoman artillery. He had taken casualties in clearing the first lines of mines. But as far as Kephet point the way is clear.
His orders are unambiguous. He is, in support of the land forces assaulting the south and west of the peninsula, to force the narrows, whatever the casualties, and block any reinforcements landing from Asia.
Well, he will not shirk his responsibilities. "Do or Die, Paddy. Do or Die" he mutters under his breath before ordering his fleet into their battle lines.
Goba Tepe, Western Gallipoli , May 21st 1200, 1915
Colonel Halil Sami Bey maintains an Icy calm as he dictated his message.
"The enemy is landing his main force in Europe, not Asia, the West, not the East. I Repeat, I am nearly certain that Goba Tepe and Cape Hellas are the main landing points. Request permission to move the reserve regiments from Mudros to Goba Tebe at once. I require urgent reinforcements to my sector at one. Request confirmation. "
Silently, he curses the damn German. He had told him the British would land in his sector- but he lacked the authority to order the reserves to rush in to fill the breach. By the time (20) authorization would be given it might be too late, and the heights of Sari Bair captured.
Sofia, June 1st, 1915.
King Ferdinand paces the throne room. All about him great events are unfolding and he must make a difficult decision- and push it through his fractious cabinet. He may, after all, call himself Tsar, but he is well aware he does not hold the autarcic power of his namesake to the North. Time is wasting though, and he must make a decision.
To the North, the Russians are being pushed back to the Vistula and show no signs of ending their retreat. But nor do they show any sign of breaking. The Germans are assuring him that soon Serbia would be defeated and Macedonia would be his if only he joined before the issue was decided… but so far Serbia had repeatedly demonstrated the inadequacy of the Austrian forces.
To the south, the British had, with appaling casualties, destroyed or captured the Ottoman ninth division and now dominated the southern Gallipoli peninsula and the European side of the Crucial narrows. Maidos had fallen to them, although some Ottoman mines still lay in the Northern Dardanelles and Ottoman artilary on the Asian sure continued to wreck havoc on the minesweepers (21). Some of the British ships, as well as Submarines, had penetrated the Marmara, and were bombarding the Panicked Ottoman capital. The Goeben, instigator of the Ottoman entry into the war, is sunk, though not without a stiff fight.
To turn on the Entente, in spite of the rewards offered by the Germans seems foolhardy with the larger issue in such doubt. To remain neutral risks watching any potential gains eliminated. Declaring war on the Ottomans however, could be done without involving him in the larger war, would win him back Adrianopole, and might, if he acted swiftly enough, place his troops in Constantinopole, granting him a far better negotiating position Vs the Entente. Already they were offering him parts of Vardar Macedonia. If he held the Bosphorus how high might their offers rise? And after all it was clear that there was no risk attacking the Ottoman empire would lead to war with Germany- after all, they have failed to do so in the case of Greece.
His decision made, he calls his ministers and generals together to announce it.
Bosphorus, June 5th, 1915.
As the ferry to Bursa leaves the jetty Tlaat Pasha weeps. Behind him, the charges set beneath Hagia Sophia explode and the massive edifice crumbles and descends into the blazing inferno that is Istanbul.
In some sense it is a relief. Like many of the CUP leadership, like many of the "Turkish" nation he has dedicated his life to, Tlaat Pasha is a refugee, his former home now swallowed up by the Christian nations of the Balkans. For three Generations, Turks have grown used to losing wars and watching as the Christians forced Millions of Muslims to leave their homes and flee into Istanbul. Now, Istanbul is gone. Russia or Britian, Greece or Bulgaria, may win the race to it's ruins- but it would be a hollow victory.
As for the Turks, the true Turks, well, they were merely being forced back into their first conquests, into the Anatolian plateau. There they would make their last stand. They might be defeated, but they would never surrender- whatever the puppet Sultan the British planned on Installing in the ruins of Istanbul said.
Ankara, June 12th, 1915
"We were defeated by superior forces on the field of battle and we face now a choice. Do we place our necks beneath the heels of our conquerors? Do we open our women's legs to those who would defile hem? Do we place our fates in their hands? Do we dare, after all we have endured at the hands of the infidel over the past century?. That is one choice, the choice of shame and cowardinace. I offer you another choice. To Die on our feet. To fight, and keep on fighting. Not for victory. Not for survival.. No, I call on you to fight because it is better to die on our feet as men than to die on our knees as slaves to the Greeks and Armenians and Jews. Who is with me?!"
Enver Pasha, speech to the CUP central comittee and selected officers of the army of Anatolian resistance
(1) OTL, The Italian assault hit the spring floods, making the Isonozo a truly formidable barrier. They were also facing an Austria which had already crushed the main Russian armies. TTL, The Russian army has not yet been assaulted and the Isonozo remains fordable.
(2) Lobbying by Croats and German Tyrolese, both of whom overwhelmingly support the Hapsburgs and are overrepresented in the officer corps and in the court.
(3) A Hohenzollern got the throne of Romania in 1866 following Bismarkian horse trading with Russia.
(4) OTLs Gorlice Tarnow was aimed partly at keeping Italy and Romania out of the war by demonstrating CP supremacy in the East. They were too late for Italy but GT probably kept Romania out of the war for a year- and also convinced Bulgaria to join the war.
(5) Which the shell crisis, the overburdened state of the Russian railways and a variety of other factors will prevent the British from doing. At least in 1915. But the Germans don’t know that- OTL they were expecting an Ottoman collapse and dreaded the revival of the Russian steamroller.
(6) Which isn't very far from the truth, of course.
(7) Needless to say Tlaat is about as secular as they come. But this is about group identity, not theology.
(8) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_genocide. it starts earlier OTL as the Greek army advances on Izmir.
(9) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Battalions_(Ottoman_Empire). So much for the claim that the Armenian genocide was the unplanned result of genuine attempt at forcible resettlement of a ddisloyal population in the Interior.
(10) OTL, one reason the Armenian Genocide took place early, while the Greek Genocide was not so lethal was that Tsarist Russia did not want to take in useless mouths and tried to discourage their entry into the empire until 1917. The Greeks took in anyone who could make it out. Which resulted in massive starvation, especially given the national schism and the Bulgarian entry into the war.
(11) Notably absent are the Russians. And the Greeks- they do not wish to encourage de-hellenization of Asia minor.
(12) Why Is Tlaat being relatively accommodating? Because unlike the Nazis the CUP had a "Logical" reason to eliminate their minorities- they were a military threat. Women and children OTOH are a military burden. And while the CUP shares some similarities with European totalitarian parties they have not undergone quite the same anti-rational process of ideological radicalization their European counterparts did in the interwar years. Also, the Ottomans are more dependent on their allies and the Americans than WWII Germany was- they need to take their opinions into consideration.
(13) NEVER underestimate the foolishness of a British general.
(14) OTL. Sanders was absolutely convinced the British would land in Asia- he very nearly failed to reinforce Kemal against the ANAZAC landings due to his fear this was a diversion.
(15) Between troops lost in Adana, the Greek landings in Izmir and even worse luck Vs the Russians, the Straits are short a crucial three divisions.
(16) Having troops who are experienced in amphibious landings, and commanders who have some idea of what can go wrong in such a landing is a great aid. The Ottoman troops facing them do not benefit from the same experience as the troops who faced the landings in the Levant are in Syria or Cilicia. That said, Gallipoli is not Cilicia.
(17) OTL, he assumed command two weeks before the naval attempt on the Dardanelles. TTL, he has more time at the helm and has also overseen the Jaffe and Cilicia landings.
(18) OTL, the initial attempts to clear mines were stymied by the fact that the minesweepers were crewed by civilians who were risk averse. An earlier East-Med commitment TTL weeds them out by May.
(19) OTL, submarines arrived in force only after the landings took place and the naval option was abandoned. Sea planes proved useless in the march-April weather (Seas were too rough or not sufficiently windy to take off) and came into use only in May after the initial landings were contained.
(20) Mustafa Kemal also lacked the authority- but he decided asking for forgiveness was better than asking for permission. This, if you will, was the measure of his greatness. Not his tactical capabilities, which were remarkable but hardly unique, but the self-assurance of acting upon his convictions (which, it might be noted, were not always correct).
(21) They had a limited supply and production capability up to August OTL. So no, they can't just fill up the entire straits with naval mines.
Last edited:
