Mother of all Carrier Battles

Most likely outcome?

  • Japanese Victory

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    17
[Presenter voice]: In a world where the Battle of the Coral Sea never happened and Saratoga was never torpedoed, one man, Isoroku Yammamoto, seeks out a decisive battle with his foes. And he is determined to dispense with complicated plans, and goes straight for the gut!

Starring:

Kaga (90),
Akagi (91),
Zuikaku (84),
Shokaku (84),
Hiryu (73),
Soryu (71)
(sub-total 493)

with a special guest appearance by Carrier Division 2:

Junyo (48),
Ryujo (38),
Zuiho (30),
Shoho (30)
Hosho (15),
(sub-total 161)

For a grand total of 654 aircraft.

Opposing them, after a long streak of setbacks in the Pacific, but itching for a fight, is Team America, with

Saratoga (88),
Yorktown (85),
Enterprise (85),
Hornet (85),
Lexington (78),
Midway Island air base (127)

sporting a total of 548 aircraft.

In this greatest clash of carrier fleets, who will emerge victorious? [/Presenter voice]

Assume we're running this simulation many, many times, what's the likeliest outcome? Assume that the Japanese have enough men to clear the island IF AND ONLY IF they cleared the area of US ships, without suffering heavy losses themselves. The actual utility of holding Midway should be beyond the scope of this discussion.

Have at it!
 
The problem is the IJN didn't have the aircraft for this. The main carriers of the Kido Butai were running with about 3/4 aircraft, Kaga and Akagi had somewhere around 60 odd aircraft a peice only one of the two (Soryu or Hiryu I forget which) was fully up to strength and even then to get their aircraft available for Midway the IJN had to strip aircraft out of training groups and other carriers to bring them up to a decent strength level.

Also the American's were not stupid, they are outnumbered here and Nimitz knew that Midway wasn't worth risking his carriers over. If he was outnumbered at Midway he had ordered his men on the ground to fall back. Midway would be a nightmare for the IJN to occupy and could be re-taken.

You'd also have to change Yamamoto's mindset, as well as getting GCHQ to also not decide to press towards Port Morseby and the Alutiens. Yamamoto was the head of the Navy but he had bosses and they (tried to) tell him to support those operations beforehand, so that would also have to change.

you'd also have to change the IJN's doctrinal love of overly complex plans. Even when brute force was called for, they tended towards very complex (and overwrought) plans, see Midway, the Phillipines Sea etc. Also the IJNs Leadership, especially Yamamoto, felt that the USN was basically 'beat' and that they had to be lured out of Perl, and that a huge show of force would encourage the Americans to go 'fuck that noise' and stay in port, hence Yammy's Midway plan being all about 'deception' and having his forces (far too) widely spread out.

if the IJN kept its fleet together (despite being hobbled by Hosho's speed in this case) then its just too big a target to hit. I'd say the USN would go 'nope' and not fight it, the risks are just too high.

Sadly to get a battle like this you need it to be pretty much ASB.
 
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One thing to remember is that during their rampages across the Pacific the IJN did well because of one major thing. Not technical advantages, not Yamato Dashii (Japanese fighting spirit) or any other bollocks. At sea they did better than their opponents because they brought more numbers to the point of combat than the other guys did. You turn up with 6 carriers against 1 or two and raw numbers will tell their own happy tale.

The blokes who wrote Shattered Sword said that if Yammy had turned up at Midway with all 6 carriers then the IJN probably would have won or the USN would have simply backed off when faced with overwhelming numbers.

As it was, with their carriers and the Midway aircraft counted in, the USN actually had more aircraft than the IJN did in the OTL Midway battle, but even then at the end of the battle the Hornets strike group was pretty much wiped out, and both Yorktown and Enterprise were down many aircraft and Midway had shot its bolt. so against this many aircraft carriers, the USN would just go 'nope' and back off. Nimitz and co were not idiots and they knew that their carriers were the instrument they'd need for victory. Unlike the IJN which still happily worshipped at the Altar of the Big Gun battleship, the USN realised carriers were the way forwards and they would not risk all of them in a stand up slugging match against double the number of carriers attacking them.
 
The question that appeals to me is not who would win because its such an obvious win for Japan but rather why would America give battle. Maybe the Americans think only Carier Division two is deployed and get a few strikes in before they get curb stomped by carrier division 1.

It's a fight whereby if America fights they have lost.

Also relevant is that in 1942 the Japanese were much better atforming up mass strikes while the Americans were likely to deploy in separate task forces. This could result in different strikes going in at different angles at the Japanese while their cap is already reacting to a different strike.
 
Soviet Union wins. :)

Both Japan and USA loose that much in millitary hardware they are forced to negotiate again for a sort of truce, with both Japan and USA dropping out WW2 leaving only the otehr figthing nations left to fight WW2, resulting in a win of the Soviet Union in the end.
 
[Presenter voice]: In a world where the Battle of the Coral Sea never happened and Saratoga was never torpedoed, one man, Isoroku Yammamoto, seeks out a decisive battle with his foes. And he is determined to dispense with complicated plans, and goes straight for the gut!

Starring:

Kaga (90),
Akagi (91),
Zuikaku (84),
Shokaku (84),
Hiryu (73),
Soryu (71)
(sub-total 493)

with a special guest appearance by Carrier Division 2:

Junyo (48),
Ryujo (38),
Zuiho (30),
Shoho (30)
Hosho (15),
(sub-total 161)

For a grand total of 654 aircraft.

Opposing them, after a long streak of setbacks in the Pacific, but itching for a fight, is Team America, with

Saratoga (88),
Yorktown (85),
Enterprise (85),
Hornet (85),
Lexington (78),
Midway Island air base (127)

sporting a total of 548 aircraft.

In this greatest clash of carrier fleets, who will emerge victorious? [/Presenter voice]

Assume we're running this simulation many, many times, what's the likeliest outcome? Assume that the Japanese have enough men to clear the island IF AND ONLY IF they cleared the area of US ships, without suffering heavy losses themselves. The actual utility of holding Midway should be beyond the scope of this discussion.

Have at it!
As others have suggested I think the only way this could happen is if the Americans underestimate the size of the Japanese carrier force. Could the Japanese attempt a ruse to make the Americans think that they were dividing their carriers between an attack on Midway and an attack on the Aleutians? E.g. could the POD be that the Japanese knew that the Americans had broken their codes and used it to their advantage by feeding the enemy false information about their intentions?

I also agree that once the American admirals discovered that they were heavily outnumbered they would try to disengage PDQ.

However, I think that the Americans did give battle they would want the strongest possible force. Therefore they would bring the Wasp over from the Atlantic sooner and possibly transfer the Ranger to the Pacific too.
 
Midway was a tactical victory and had no bearing on the strategic situation in the long term . It provided a Morale bonus but was not really essential for victory . The Americans at the time of Midway had 6 Essex Class already under construction and another 7 already ordered . In addition they had 6 independence class carriers and many escort carriers( 4 Sangamon class and 20 bogue class ) . This is while they had yet to reach full production . So in construction they had a CV force that was bigger then the entire Japanese Navy . Plus they had many times that number on order . The most important aspect of Midway was the end to Japanese expansion and also the removal of the IJN arm needed to defend and or attack Guadacanal . The Battle of the Coral Sea had shown the F4F wildcat was ok and the Dauntless was effective . The Devastator was seen to be inadequate . America was always going to in the long term be able to simply overwhelm with numbers .
 
Midway was a tactical victory and had no bearing on the strategic situation in the long term . It provided a Morale bonus but was not really essential for victory . The Americans at the time of Midway had 6 Essex Class already under construction and another 7 already ordered . In addition they had 6 independence class carriers and many escort carriers( 4 Sangamon class and 20 bogue class ) . This is while they had yet to reach full production . So in construction they had a CV force that was bigger then the entire Japanese Navy . Plus they had many times that number on order . The most important aspect of Midway was the end to Japanese expansion and also the removal of the IJN arm needed to defend and or attack Guadacanal . The Battle of the Coral Sea had shown the F4F wildcat was ok and the Dauntless was effective . The Devastator was seen to be inadequate . America was always going to in the long term be able to simply overwhelm with numbers .
And this is on-topic how?
 
And this is on-topic how?
I think he is making the point that America could afford to lose the mother of all carrier battles as they could simply build a new fleet and even in defeat they would significantly attrit the Japanese fleet.
 
Soviet Union wins. :)

Both Japan and USA loose that much in millitary hardware they are forced to negotiate again for a sort of truce, with both Japan and USA dropping out WW2 leaving only the otehr figthing nations left to fight WW2, resulting in a win of the Soviet Union in the end.

You funny man.
 
I was simply pointing out that you had missed a question in your choices . Midway was irrelevant to the future of the war in many ways . therefore the battle could be a win , loss or draw and the USA still has a strategic victory . Every IJN airman dead was a strategic victory as they where a strategic asset not tactical .
 
I was simply pointing out that you had missed a question in your choices . Midway was irrelevant to the future of the war in many ways . therefore the battle could be a win , loss or draw and the USA still has a strategic victory . Every IJN airman dead was a strategic victory as they where a strategic asset not tactical .
First of all this isn't OTL Midway.
Secondly, you can have strategic victories and still lose the war. By your logic, Japan cannot score any strategic victory since any engagement usually involves at least a couple of pilots lost.
 
Every battle the Japanese fought cost them an irreplaceable strategic resource that had been carefully built up for the final battle that would sweep their enemy from the sea's . The Japanese aviators that attacked Pearl Harbour where some of the best pilots in the world full stop . They had been trained to an incredible degree and could compete with the best pilots around the world . However their training program was geared towards small numbers of elites . the Allies however had a different view . they churned out thousands and thousands of average pilots some of whom would then excel . Pearl Harbour . 29 pilots lost . Coral Sea . 92 pilots lost . This is 121 pilots lost in less then 6 months . This is the complement of one of their CV's . I understand the desire to make a massive carrier battle occur . However Midway is a bad choice . A better idea would be to ignore Pearl Harbour and try and get War Plan Orange activated and draw the American Fleet into a massive battle off the Philippines .
 
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