Most probable alternate colonization of Australia?

[Atterdag]

Gonna throw a curve ball here: how about Germany? If the land only has limited European settlement until the late 19th century I can imagine Germany being ”payed off” with a territorially large but rather inhospitable colony, like they were with Namibia.

 

[SunKing105]

I think that with the right PODs, the Macassarese might be able to establish some colonies near the Darwin area.

 

[Riain]

I think Asian polities are out, they've had millennia of contact and opportunity but never bothered. I also think the Portuguese and Spanish are out, the Portuguese because they didn't use the Bower route that the Dutch did later and the Spanish because they pretty much remained in the northern hemisphere.

That pretty much leaves the Dutch, and I'd suggest the PoD being Abel Tasman's voyages. IIRC Tasman had 2 coin toss decisions; one that could have taken him through to the Qld coast in 1642 and another that could have taken him through the Torres Straight in 1644. I think that if the east coast was found and reported on the Dutch may have changed their outlook on Australia and not seen it as worthless. Insted it might be worth staking a claim on the more accessible west coast to facilitate further exploration of the east coast. If this is the case the Dutch would likely find the open plains between Adelaide and Melbourne and settlers for their own sake could move inland from there.

 

[Dominic]

Gonna throw a curve ball here: how about Germany? If the land only has limited European settlement until the late 19th century I can imagine Germany being ”payed off” with a territorially large but rather inhospitable colony, like they were with Namibia.

Totally plausible, but not particularly likely. If the British don't want to control it, which is easily achieved with a mid-18th century POD, then it's unlikely that anyone will display a huge interest in the late 18th/early 19th century. Whaling/sealing settlements will still probably emerge, possibly as the earliest European colonisation, and both the British and French would likely set up some small bases on the east or west coasts by the 1820's, but these do not necessarily need to be large to be functionally similar to the original Cape Town. For Germany to play a role though, it probably needs to unite earlier. Unless imperialism/colonialism are butterflied away completely, temperate disease-free Australia will almost certainly be carved up in the mid-19th century, before Africa. I could imagine large French, British, and Dutch settlements, and perhaps even some sort of American territory - Germany will need to be playing the game to get a piece though. Along with Germany, other less likely but plausible players under the right circumstances could include Spain, Portugal, and even Italy or Belgium. Australia is very big, and ultimately even the less productive parts will be cheap to control making it attractive even to prestige-seekers.