Most plausible scenario for a Wilkie presidency

What is the most likely way to make Wendell Wilkie president? If FDR decides to limit himself to 2 terms, then will Wilkie stand a chance in 1940?
 
Wilkie ran against the New Deal in 1940, one of his main platforms was to get rid of social security. Any random town drunk could have beat him in 1940, so does have a chance, no.
 
No pre-Goldwater candidate, possibly excepting Taft, is going to call for SS' abolition. Certainly not the Eastern/Midwestern Republicans who domianted the party ideologically from 1940 to 1980. The easiest way is no WWII or US involvement in WWII, but that creates about a million butterflies. Without a war FDR will have no reason to seek a third term and would be beatable, though not necessarily condemned.
 
Willkie's best chance lay in his not running against Franklin Roosevelt.

Unfortunately for him, FDR decided to stick it out for a third term.
 
If FDR doesn't run, then Willkie wins. Roosevelt's health was still at prewar levels in 1940, so unless WWII doesn't happenor ends in a quick Allied victory he's running again.
 
If FDR doesn't run, then Willkie wins. Roosevelt's health was still at prewar levels in 1940, so unless WWII doesn't happenor ends in a quick Allied victory he's running again.

Well, he might decide to abide by the two-term tradition. If Roosevelt doesn't run in 1940, who gets the Democratic nomination?
 
Well, he might decide to abide by the two-term tradition. If Roosevelt doesn't run in 1940, who gets the Democratic nomination?

That's a tricky question. Roosevelt preferred Harry Hopkins, but he was a virtual unknown outside of Washington and really disliked by Congress. Not to mention that he got stomach cancer in the late thirties, which really hurt his chances.

John Nance Garner has no chance largely because the New Dealers have firm control of the party apparatus by 1940. That, and Roosevelt would die before seeing Garner nominated by his party, especially after the row the two of them had over the Supreme Court reorganization debacle.

James Farley is a Catholic, so there's no chance of him being nominated with Al Smith's defeat only twelve years earlier.

Millard Tydings is a conservative, so no chance for him winning the nod.

Cordell Hull is possible, but not probable, in part because of his age and him being a Southerner. Southerners were, accepting Wilson, who was Governor of New Jersey, not exactly in vogue for nomination for the Presidency after the Civil War up until about the sixties.

Henry Wallace will definitely make a go at the nomination, and he probably has a good shot at it. He will be popular with liberals and the farm belt, and is an internationalist and fiercely anti-fascist. Definitely a contender, with the only real drawback being his eccentric personality and questionable religious background.

William Douglas was another person that Roosevelt favored to take his spot. He's a SCOTUS member by this point, and he's also a strong New Dealer. Douglas would make a pretty good nominee in that he wraps up the liberals and laborites, but he'd not do so well with Southerners with his pro-Civil Rights voting record.

Alben Barkley is probably the most likely candidate IMHO. He holds the liberals, the laborites, and is palatable to the South as a moderate on the race question. He's also a border stater and can compete well in the North against Willkie. As Senate Majority Leader, he has clear experience in legislating, though the only thing that I can see falling against him would be his support of the Supreme Court reorganization plan in the late thirties.

My bet is on Alben Barkley heading the ticket and Henry Wallace in the Vice Presidential spot.
 
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