Most plausible alt WWI causes/alliances/outcomes?

I believe they would. If the Western front turns out to be a stalemate like it actually was, then France would eventually lose due to attrition and british plus German naval dominance. As for Russia, as long as the Germans can pull off another Tannenberg, they should be fine. If the Germans throw most of their army at Austria, then Austria really doesn't stand a chance.

Also if you have Italy join up with the Brits and Germans as well as the Ottomans, that'd put even more pressure on the Austrians and Russians.

I agree with you that the Anglo-German alliance could win.

If the Anglo-Japanese alliance existed in this TL, then Japan could be tempted to attack the Russian Far East putting immense strain on Russia and its ability to fight in a two front war.

On a lesser note, it could also seize French Indochina, diverting French resources.

Also the UK and Germany combined possessed a stronger economy than the Franco-Russian alliance, so could outlast them in a lengthy total war.
 
I recently finished The Sleepwalkers by Christopher Clark. He thinks that it was rather possible for the Serbian ministers to submit to all of the demands of the Austrian Ultimatum that only a bit of hesitancy at the last minute saw changes to their statement on Article 5. I can't recall the exact details, but that could be something to look into. Defusing the July Crisis by seeing total Serbian submission to Austria would have delayed war until the next big crisis, whatever that might have been. Clark also thinks that Anglo-Russian relations were on the decline at the time -- if some conflict arose in China or Persia, the Relations between the two states could have soured enough to loosen the English bonds to the Franco-Russian alliance, perhaps even seeing low-level proxy conflicts. Clark further says that The British foreign ministry was willing to accept a very little intrusion on Belgian sovereignty; so long as the German armies didn't march too close to the Channel ports, they would not feel threatened. That would naturally require a change to German military planning, and the German ultimatum to Belgium would have to go away as well -- it is too provocative not to anger the British public.
 
Here's something I've thought about.

France defeats Prussia in the Franco-Prussian War. With Austria, Napoleon III creates an Imperial Alliance, and after (Austria) finally persuading Russia to join due to Balkan troubles a bit later, France, Austria, and Russia form an ATL version of the League of Three Emperors (not necessarily by that name), led by Napoleon III rather than Wilhelm I. Its purpose, in Nappy III's eyes: to prevent Prussian revanchism and militarism with three bordering empires. Getting Russia to join would be difficult, I admit, but I think it would be doable in the case that Britain opposes Russia in the next Russo-Turkish War and Austria wants a scrap of the Balkans.
 
how do you get Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary on the same side? (Central Powers right?)

What you really need is for Russia and Austria-Hungary to come to some sort of agreement over the Balkans and for Austria-Hungary not to unilaterally annex Bosnia-Herzigovina.

Tension over the Balkans was the key source of friction between Germany and Austria-Hungary, so removing that gives the 3 Emperor's League some legs.

fasquardon
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
As Autocrat suggested, another Greek-Ottoman War (which was expected) could expand into a larger conflagration, or it could just be a fourth war in as many years for Constantinople to fight in.

Italian, Greek, and Austro-Hungarian conflict over Albania (it's always the damned Balkans) might also be a problem: even with the war on, Austro-Hungarian and (then-neutral) Italian warships had time to point guns at each other in Durazzo harbor as Prince Wilhelm of Wied's government collapsed.

In any case, the most prominent European neutrals who sat out the entire war are Sweden, Spain, and the Netherlands, all of whom could have reasons to join in -- Sweden generally with the Central Powers, Spain and the Netherlands with either side depending on the specifics. Sweden almost came in thanks to Admiral Essen's foolish endeavor; Spain certainly veered between the Queen Mother's Habsburg ties and the King's wish to be a bold warrior (though his sympathies were with the Allies); and the Netherlands considered the prospect of joining the war but feared British hostility afloat or German hostility on land, and so chose neutrality. If, for instance, both were aligned (or Britain was solidly neutral), then the calculus in the Hague may change.
 
Pre-1900, but have Maximillian I hold onto power for longer in Mexico. As the younger brother of the Austrian Emperor and having been set up in the first place by Napoleon III, he could foster a better relationship between France and Austria-Hungry. I have no idea who they would be fighting against, but I'm sure you can come up with something.
 
Pre-1900, but have Maximillian I hold onto power for longer in Mexico. As the younger brother of the Austrian Emperor and having been set up in the first place by Napoleon III, he could foster a better relationship between France and Austria-Hungry. I have no idea who they would be fighting against, but I'm sure you can come up with something.
A Balkan War would remain possible, if the Austrians tried to expand their control of the Balkans as per OTL.
 
One possibility is that during the Congress of Berlin in 1878 Bismarck openly sides with Russia over Bulgaria. As a result Austria-Hungary gets pissed off and relations with Berlin sour. This leaves room for a Russo-German alliance. A natural partner would be Italy. So we get Germany, Russia and Italy while Austria-Hungary gets closer to France in order to avoid isolation. Assuming German-British relations still go south under Kaiser Bill, then we get Russia, Germany and Italy vs. France, Britain and Austria-Hungary. If the Ottomans get involved, it'll be on the latter team.
 
Last edited:
Top