Most likely ww1 without Arch duke Franz

Well you have the Fashoda Incident in 1898 which would have caused a different World War with Great Britain and France facing off.

But remember that by 1917 both Russia and France would have modernized their militaries and Germany was scared that France would invade for Alsace-Lorraine, so they wanted to strike first. This creates two possibilities.

One - Germany just attacks France and Russia before they finish modernizing their militaries. This is bad for Germany because if they go through Belgium here come Great Britain and they wont be able to get past the French defenses without heavy casualties, but they probably would see some success in Russia.

Two - France attacks Germany in 1917, I dont exactly know if Russia would, they had a treaty but I still am not sure. Germany may be able to repulse the French with their border defenses and on the plus side Great Britain wont side with France if they are the attacker and not the defender.

Theres three possibilities for you.
 
There was still a good chance there would be another Balkan or colonial conflict in the future that would create the spark.
 
Well, if you're asking what happens if Ferdinand isn't shot that's hard to answer. However it's likely that a future incident in the Balkans will drag the continent into war. Although of course something unexpected could occur, such as conflict between Britain and Russia in central Asia.
 
Seeing as he knew more about the situation than anyone of us every could, I'll go with Bismarck's famous prediction on the topic: Some damn fool thing in the Balkans.


Bill
 
Seeing as he knew more about the situation than anyone of us every could, I'll go with Bismarck's famous prediction on the topic: Some damn fool thing in the Balkans.
The Serbian version of the Day of National Madness maybe? Modernized Russian military gives Serbia full support and they go invade Albania full of confidence? Everyone else except for Russia's allies gets pissed? Or maybe they invade Bosnia just cause they think they can win.

And im running out of damn fool things in the Balkans. Bulgaria isnt stupid enough to invade Serbia AGAIN, but maybe the Central Powers try to balance out the Balkans by allying with Bulgaria?

Maybe even Ottoman Empire going batshit and invading the Balkans again, or partitions the Balkans with Austria and Germany jumps in to support them. The Ottomans were getting back on there feet when ww1 started. So they would be a lot stronger if the war was significantly delayed. But then so would everyone else.

And this is where i run out of Balkan ideas.

Now that i put it like that none sound like the 'most likely reason' but they could all be plausible (just barely), especially crazy Serbia. ;)
 
IIRC the new Albanian state was very shaky, from foundation through to the war. Perhaps, while the Prince is away in Germany, the government collapses entirely due to internal issues, and Greece and Serbia take the opportunity to revise their borders under the guise of restoring stability. Albanians, though disunited, resist the "peacekeepers" and both Serbia and Greece find themselves bogged down. The Austrians take the opportunity to stir the pot by ensuring weapons flow into the region, and Bulgaria starts getting belligerent about expanding its borders. A Bulgarian attack on Serbia would not draw the same response that an Austrian attack would/did, but there's every chance the Ottomans would get drawn in somehow, which would draw Russia's ire. Britain doesn't want the Ottoman Empire falling unless they're the ones toppling it, and Germany has close economic ties to the Empire, leading them to become involved. The slightest escalation by someone and the whole thing goes up.
 

Eurofed

Banned
IIRC the new Albanian state was very shaky, from foundation through to the war. Perhaps, while the Prince is away in Germany, the government collapses entirely due to internal issues, and Greece and Serbia take the opportunity to revise their borders under the guise of restoring stability. Albanians, though disunited, resist the "peacekeepers" and both Serbia and Greece find themselves bogged down. The Austrians take the opportunity to stir the pot by ensuring weapons flow into the region, and Bulgaria starts getting belligerent about expanding its borders. A Bulgarian attack on Serbia would not draw the same response that an Austrian attack would/did, but there's every chance the Ottomans would get drawn in somehow, which would draw Russia's ire. Britain doesn't want the Ottoman Empire falling unless they're the ones toppling it, and Germany has close economic ties to the Empire, leading them to become involved. The slightest escalation by someone and the whole thing goes up.

As we recently discussed in the "no 2nd Balkan war" thread, a Serbian move on Albania would be a very good WWI trigger, indeed (and one that would keep the Triple Alliance united). One of the few things that Austria and Italy would enthusiastically agree upon is that Serbia cannot be allowed to expand in Albania. Germany shall surely support both of its allies. A Serbian attempt to annex all or part of Albania, before the country exists in an independent state, or later, shall surely bring a joint Austro-Italian ultimatum on Serbia, backed by Germany. If Serbia remains defiant, because Russia is experiencing another of its recurrent Pan-Slav imperialistic militancy phases, and throws all its weight behind Serbia, then Europe is very close to WWI. The wrong diplomatic move, and we would see an Austro-Italian declaration of war to Serbia, a Russian declaration of war to Austria and Italy, a German declaration of war to Russia, and the fun begins.
 
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As we recently discussed in the "no 2nd Balkan war" thread, a Serbian move on Albania would be a very good WWI trigger, indeed (and one that would keep the Triple Alliance united).(snip of good stuff)


Eurofed,

Bismarck took great care to continually burnish his image, usually by bribing the so-called "gentlemen of the press", but it looks as if his prognostications were spot on in this case.

Some damn fool thing in the Balkans indeed!


Bill
 

Eurofed

Banned
Some damn fool thing in the Balkans indeed!

Very true. Now, a WWI that starts about Russian expansionism in the Balkans, through the Serbian proxy, is going to tie the Foreign Office in a knot, Entente or not. :D

They dislike the Germans (or the French) any close to Antwerp as much as they dislike the Russians any close to Constantinople. If Germans still execute Plan Schliffen, it is a coin's toss whether they still side with the Entente or not, since we now have an aggression on a neutral in a strategic territory for Britain on both sides, Russian proxy Serbia in Albania, Germany in Belgium.

If Germany switches to a Russia First strategy, which is far from unconceivable if Russia mobilizes quickly, it is very likely that Britain stays on the fence and may even become a CP-friendly neutral if German diplomacy plays smart for a change.
 
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Why does it have to be a problem in the Balkans? Couldnt the Great Powers become so strained they just go a bit crazy?
 
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