Most likely result of a successful August Coup in the USSR in 1991?

I've been reading some threads on this forum on the August Coup, an attempted 1991 Soviet coup d'état. Communist hardliners tried to seize power from Gorbachev, President and General Secretary of the USSR. They opposed his reforms and the new union treaty, which decentralized a lot of power to the republics. The hard-liners were opposed, mainly in Moscow, by a short but effective campaign of civil resistance led by Yeltsin, who had been both an ally and critic of Gorbachev. This proved a watershed event that resulted in the dissolution of the USSR, despite the coup failing and Gorbachev returning to power.

So suppose the State Committee on the State Emergency, i.e. the plotters, have their get act together and have Gorbachev and Yeltsin mysteriously die of "accidents" or "illness" and no serious campaign of civil resistance gets off the ground in Moscow. What then? In the threats I've read there wasn't a consensus, so I'm proposing a number of scenarios:

1) Short/medium term Soviet survival, peaceful collapse: government and party institutions as well as the Soviet military fall in line with the new leadership in Moscow. The tanks crush separatism in the Baltic States, Moldova, parts of Ukraine, Georgia and Armenia. As a return to the pre-Gorbachev Soviet Union is untenable, communism still falls peacefully in by the dawn of the 21st century at the latest, probably with the USSR dissolving much like it did historically (despite possible Chinese support).
2) Short term Soviet survival, violent collapse a.k.a. "Mega Yugoslavia": within a matter of months resistance to the cabal of hardliners separatist conflicts erupt which Moscow attempts to suppress violently in a Second Russian Civil War that lasts for years until Russia is too exhausted to carry on. No foreign intervention on behalf of the separatists because the Kremlin has a big red button.
3) Immediate revolution: plotters overthrown, USSR dissolves
4) Immediate revolution v2.0: plotters overthrown, New Union Treaty still goes through
5) Long term Soviet survival: the plotters pull a Deng Xiaoping. In other words, the democratic experiments of Gorbachev are all reversed and the USSR returns to Brezhnev style totalitarianism, but economic reforms are enacted mimicking those of China. Needless to say, Moscow's relations with Beijing become much much closer.
6) Something else, please explain.

Which do you think is most likely?
Would they ally themselves with Sadam Hussein regarding Kuweit ?
 
I was thinking about this recently. The problem here is that IOTL the coup collapsed within a few days. To get a successful coup, you need to raise the level of competence of the coup plotters to actually pull off a coup. Once you raise their level of competence, they can probably hold the Soviet Union, including the Baltics, together afterwards.

I think the Warsaw Pact and Communist Eastern Europe is gone anyway by 1991, though maybe not if you move the date of the coup up to 1987 as part of the POD. However, the Eastern European protectorates were arguably a net strategic liability of the USSR at this point.

One possible outcome of a successful coup not mentioned is a counter-coup by the army later. The new government will have no legitimacy, and being competent enough to seize and hold power doesn't necessarily mean it will have a governing program.

The coup plotters could do with someone who could claim legitimate civilian authority as well. But with the Communist Party having been broken 4 years before, I have no idea who could fill that role. Possibly Yeltsin himself?

Would they ally themselves with Sadam Hussein regarding Kuweit ?

Probably they have no attention to spare for Saddam. If somehow they do have attention to spare, why would they help Saddam, an unreliable and aggravating ally who has started a war that the coup plotters aren't bound to help him in?

The Soviet-Iraqi treaty of friendship had defensive provisions, but helping Saddam dodge the consequences of his actions? Not so much.

fasquardon
 
Yanayev especially and the putschists generally were notoriously drunken, ineffective, and corrupt. No one will kill Yeltsin, but maybe Gorbachev could be killed by a trigger-happy guard, but, honestly, I think the only 'success' the plotters will have would be in bringing down their country, and probably not even with much more of a bang than in IOTL. The referendum isn't really a good barometer of public feeling, either – it's about as representative of popular support for the existing regime as the 1870 French one was.
 
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