Most Likely Playout of a 2010s NATO-Russia WW3?

Theres been quite a few flash points this decade of a military conflict between Russia and NATO in Europe or Syria, but how would such a conflict play out? What would be the logistics of such conflict and will it most likely end in full-blown nuclear exchange?
 
Theres been quite a few flash points this decade of a military conflict between Russia and NATO in Europe or Syria, but how would such a conflict play out? What would be the logistics of such conflict and will it most likely end in full-blown nuclear exchange?
It's hard to comment without some more context. Ie what are the goals of each side. (For example does the West / NATO want to topple the current regime in Russia ? Does Russia want to Annex a NATO member or ?? I can see both these scenarios ending very badly.)
 
It's hard to comment without some more context. Ie what are the goals of each side. (For example does the West / NATO want to topple the current regime in Russia ? Does Russia want to Annex a NATO member or ?? I can see both these scenarios ending very badly.)

I’d imagine that toppiling a regime would be the result of Russia trying to annex a NATO country. Let’s say for contexts sake, Russia leads a sneak coup of the Estonian government leading to a gradual occupation. In response, Russia has to hold onto land grabbed, gain more area while staving of internal and NATO resistance.
 
I’d imagine that toppiling a regime would be the result of Russia trying to annex a NATO country. Let’s say for contexts sake, Russia leads a sneak coup of the Estonian government leading to a gradual occupation. In response, Russia has to hold onto land grabbed, gain more area while staving of internal and NATO resistance.
Well.. In that case IMHO..

NATO (and probably some other western countries) are NOT going accept Russia Anexing a NATO nation against the wishes of said nation. I'm not totally convinced that NATO / the west would automatically seek to topple the Russian regime as a result but if they did I doubt Russia would accept that either.

In so far as both NATO and Russia have nuclear weapons I don't see this ending well.
 
Given that Turkey is a NATO member, the idea of US-backed Kurdish guerillas fighting the Turkish army is fascinating - it could be interpreted as an attack by a NATO member on another NATO member, which would presumably give NATO's lawyers something to argue about. How serious is NATO's all-for-one stance? I've always assumed that if push came to shove and the United States ended up fighting Russia, Britain would join in, the rest would either pretend to join in or just refuse.

My hunch is that any conflict would be as a result of overconfidence on the part of President Putin and his aides. A full-on land invasion of Ukraine unsubtly masquerading as an international stability force for example. Assuming it progressed beyond a small skirmish it would be economically ruinous for Russia and would probably end with Putin's retirement to a yacht somewhere.
 
Given that Turkey is a NATO member, the idea of US-backed Kurdish guerillas fighting the Turkish army is fascinating - it could be interpreted as an attack by a NATO member on another NATO member, which would presumably give NATO's lawyers something to argue about. How serious is NATO's all-for-one stance? I've always assumed that if push came to shove and the United States ended up fighting Russia, Britain would join in, the rest would either pretend to join in or just refuse.

My hunch is that any conflict would be as a result of overconfidence on the part of President Putin and his aides. A full-on land invasion of Ukraine unsubtly masquerading as an international stability force for example. Assuming it progressed beyond a small skirmish it would be economically ruinous for Russia and would probably end with Putin's retirement to a yacht somewhere.
I expect in the event of an actual invasion of a NATO nation by a non NATO nation the bulk (if not all) of the NATO nations would be involved in or at least supportive of a military response. As the Ukraine isn't a NATO nation I have my doubts that NATO would be involved. That being said some NATO nations might decide to respond with force.

I'm doubtful a renewed Kurdish / Turkish conflict would trigger military action by or against NATO.
 
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