Most Likely Outcome for the Philippines if No Spanish-American War

Saw the necro'd thread in after 1900 regarding no Spanish American War, and the discussion and various ideas on what would happen to the Philippines interested me. Since it was a necro'd thread, I thought it might be worth starting another one for this specific topic.

So, assuming the USS Maine explodes in port rather than in Cuba, and it can't be pinned on the Spanish authorities, and the war is therefore avoided, what is likely to happen to the Philippines in the long-run? Specifically the Philippines.

Before we get started, I want to avoid the butterfly murder of the thread I was referencing, by saying that the whole 20th Century will be affected by the absence of this war. If there are any world wars, they won't be identical to OTL's, so take that into consideration. I'd rather not see people saying things like, "Well, if the US doesn't have the Philippines, the Japs have no reason to bomb Pearl Harbour!" or anything, because that might never happen anyway.

A lot of the ideas I saw were primarily interested in the Germans and/or the Japanese grabbing the islands (or at least establishing influence) and the international repercussions of that move. Others were adamant that the Philippines were not a backwards Asian nation at the time and would not be conquered by someone else at all. There was also talk of a Spanish 'Commonwealth', which would extend self-government to some extent to Cuba and the Philippines.

What do you think would happen?
 
Germans or Japan can declare a protectorate. Take Palau, Micronesia, and Guam in exchange.

It is more cost effective if Japan or Germany just diplomatically aligned themselves with the rebels.

However, if Japan were to help Philippine Rebels, it would been in 1896 instead.

Mindanao is another case since Spain didn't have de facto control over the whole Mindanao in 1898.

Philippines is much closer technologically, culturally to Latin America in 1898.

For otl comparison, the USA were allies of the rebels and held a port. It took USA 3 years conventional war in Luzon and another 10 years guerrilla fight in Mindanao. U.S. Lost more casualties in PhilAm war than SpanAm war.

So if your going for military conquest, the best case scenario for a great power level is a surprise attack like USA did for 3 years warfare using 100k+ troops. If there is no surprise attack it would take longer or even a chance the great power might lose due to the battlefield being the beaches instead.

If you are going for autonomy, Spain already has passed that day. Jose Rizal was already dead. Spain has already failed to comply the biak na bato peace pact. No way convincing the locals you were giving them autonomy. 1896 is a more feasible pod date for autonomy though.
 
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LordKalvert

Banned
The fate of the Philippines is a rather difficult one to forecast. Unlike Cuba, they can't rely on some regional power to guarantee their independence and are laying in shark infested waters. On the other hand, by 1898 the Spanish have grown war weary and are looking for an out. Their first inclination may be to abandon Cuba and concentrate on the Philippines

Japan is very unlikely to get them. The Japanese Naval expansion won't be effective until around 1900 and even then, Japan will need cover. The British do this in regards to Russia but an attack on Spain is far different. The Philippines are much closer to British interests rather than Russian for starters. Even more, the British simply don't want to drive the Spanish into the Franco-Russian alliance which would seriously threaten British control over the Mediterranean.

Spain may try to cede them to a European power but that presents complications as to which one. Germany, France, Britain and to a lesser degree, Russia would all take an active interest in the fate of the colony. Some type of partition is the usual answer of the powers to these types of problems
 
The fate of the Philippines is a rather difficult one to forecast. Unlike Cuba, they can't rely on some regional power to guarantee their independence and are laying in shark infested waters. On the other hand, by 1898 the Spanish have grown war weary and are looking for an out. Their first inclination may be to abandon Cuba and concentrate on the Philippines

Japan is very unlikely to get them. The Japanese Naval expansion won't be effective until around 1900 and even then, Japan will need cover. The British do this in regards to Russia but an attack on Spain is far different. The Philippines are much closer to British interests rather than Russian for starters. Even more, the British simply don't want to drive the Spanish into the Franco-Russian alliance which would seriously threaten British control over the Mediterranean.

Spain may try to cede them to a European power but that presents complications as to which one. Germany, France, Britain and to a lesser degree, Russia would all take an active interest in the fate of the colony. Some type of partition is the usual answer of the powers to these types of problems

This is assuming Spain actually holds the Philippines with an 1898 pod which is ASB.

Like I said, any great power will still have to invest resources just to invade the Philippines plus luck/correct political moves like otl USA. Invade since Spain or any European power would lack any form of de facto control.

Cuba and Philippines are different size in population and economy. in otl1898, Philippines> Cuba. Cuba also had to rely on the U.S. Army, while Philippines did not. Not valid to compare the strength of Cuba equal to Philippines.
 
I think independence is the most likely option, though I don't know about Mindanao... I could see the Spanish holding onto the Zamboanga peninsula as well as Basilan, while the remainder of Mindanao comes under the control of the Moro.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
One thing worth mentioning in all this is the overwhelmingly

One thing worth mentioning in all this is the overwhelmingly Catholic faith of the Filipino population, especially among the elite...

Obviously, the US takeover put some of the same issues into play, but the kulturkampf in Germany was a much more recent phenomenon.

Best,
 
One thing worth mentioning in all this is the overwhelmingly Catholic faith of the Filipino population, especially among the elite...

Obviously, the US takeover put some of the same issues into play, but the kulturkampf in Germany was a much more recent phenomenon.

Best,

However by the 1890s the Kulturkampf was essentially over, with the internal alliances having shifted in order to prevent the rise of the Social Democrats. It failed, of course, but not from a lack of trying by Bismarck and the Catholics. So that wouldn't stand between Germany occupying the Philippines.
 
One thing worth mentioning in all this is the overwhelmingly Catholic faith of the Filipino population, especially among the elite...

Obviously, the US takeover put some of the same issues into play, but the kulturkampf in Germany was a much more recent phenomenon.

Best,

Didn't by this time Bismarck pull in his claws over his earlier anti-catholicism policies?:confused:

I say a German protectorate followed by Japanese conquest in WWI. I don't see WWI being butterflied by events in the Philippines ITTL. It may be a slightly different war, but that's all. Perhaps Japan being engaged in the Philippines (for the whole of the war) prevents their assistance given OTL to the Entente in the Mediterranean...? The Anglo-French wouldn't really be in a position to say either "No thank you", much less "Don't you dare!" to their own ally when they are cleaning out a major enemy presence in the SW Pacific. The Japanese have the forces to spare. The rest of the Entente most assuredly won't.
 
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LordKalvert said:
Spain may try to cede them to a European power but that presents complications as to which one. Germany, France, Britain and to a lesser degree, Russia would all take an active interest in the fate of the colony. Some type of partition is the usual answer of the powers to these types of problems

France would be very well positionned to benefit from it, with Indochina. Plus Spain and France have a common colonial history in the region, the Baie of Tourane intervention in 1862 was a joint intervention because of the local missionaries.

That said, I doubt they would actually want it. At the time they seem more interested in getting as much from China as possible rather than controlling the South China Sea. Case in point, they took Fort Bayard and not the Hainan Island when they had the chance.
Although, getting the Philippines would really lock the whole region for them which could be leveraged for better access to the Japanese markets. Locking the sea would also help control every concession the Europeans would have.

That would have interesting repercussions in term of conflict
 
The Germans buy it (they were eagerly trying to and the Spanish were having money issues), and then in World War I the Japanese take it away from the Germans.

Failing that, the Spanish find themselves in a war with the Japanese at some point and lose it.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
This is assuming Spain actually holds the Philippines with an 1898 pod which is ASB.

Like I said, any great power will still have to invest resources just to invade the Philippines plus luck/correct political moves like otl USA. Invade since Spain or any European power would lack any form of de facto control.

Cuba and Philippines are different size in population and economy. in otl1898, Philippines> Cuba. Cuba also had to rely on the U.S. Army, while Philippines did not. Not valid to compare the strength of Cuba equal to Philippines.

Um, what is ASB of the Spanish holding the Philippines if there is no Spanish American War? It wouldn't even be ASB for the Americans to let the Spanish keep them. They thought long and hard about taking them It was very controversial
 
Um, what is ASB of the Spanish holding the Philippines if there is no Spanish American War? It wouldn't even be ASB for the Americans to let the Spanish keep them. They thought long and hard about taking them It was very controversial

Spain was war-weary, at best were in a stalemate in the Philippines and more honestly were losing ground, and they were starting to run out of money. Minus foreign invasion, Spain will either have to let them go or sell them off.
 
interesting to note is who would have invented the .45 absent of the U.S. Experience in the Moro conflict.

Um, what is ASB of the Spanish holding the Philippines if there is no Spanish American War? It wouldn't even be ASB for the Americans to let the Spanish keep them. They thought long and hard about taking them It was very controversial

Because it wasn't the U.S. Army who beat the Spanish Army in the Philippines in 1898.

USA letting Spanish keep the islands still doesn't explain how will Spain have de facto control over the islands when neither USA nor Spain was in de facto control.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Um, I think you two might want to go back and reread the posts because the issues you have tried to raise were long since dealt with

And, no, its not the US Army that drives the Spanish from the Philippines- its the US navy that cuts the Philippines off from any reinforcements that ends Spanish rule

But if the Spanish cede Cuba or reach a political settlement there (which they were showing signs of doing) there's no reason that the situation in the Philippines can't be recovered with concentration there. At least enough to hold on for a few years as the thread supposes
 
Um, I think you two might want to go back and reread the posts because the issues you have tried to raise were long since dealt with

And, no, its not the US Army that drives the Spanish from the Philippines- its the US navy that cuts the Philippines off from any reinforcements that ends Spanish rule

But if the Spanish cede Cuba or reach a political settlement there (which they were showing signs of doing) there's no reason that the situation in the Philippines can't be recovered with concentration there. At least enough to hold on for a few years as the thread supposes

Assuming that Spain reaches a settlement with Cuba.

However, there is no assurance that if automatically Spain can send reinforcements and will automatically recover the Philippines. Spain doesn't have US advantage of being a Philippines ally with landing troops unmolested. Spain would be treated as an enemy of Locals right from the start of the expedition and need to land on hostile beaches.

nor Spain have the finances or resources to keep raising new armies or a new expedition each year. Remember USA took 3 years to wholly conquer Luzon which USA had to fight initially in trench warfare.

That means Spain have to expel more resources than otl USA since Spain needs to fight in the beaches then in the trenches then guerrilla warfare just to recover the Philippines. Of course, that is assuming Spain actually wins battles vs 1898 Philippine armies.
 
Very unlikely and maybe ASB,...

But what if Austria Hungary wanted a piece of the Colonial Empire and made a deal with Spain? Or maybe the Philippines are split up? Spain holds onto a naval base or two, along with a strip of land to support it. Then maybe Japan and Germany get some of the other islands. Might Britain join in on a island or two to support Hong Kong?
 
The Spaniards will be expelled by 1900 and the Philippines will be split up to several republics fighting for control of Manila. There could be a possibility that Spain might sell some parts of the archipelago to Germany or to Japan to save face. If Aguinaldo's army was strong enough, there might be a united Philippines but a protectorate by the United States perhaps.
 
The Spaniards will be expelled by 1900 and the Philippines will be split up to several republics fighting for control of Manila. There could be a possibility that Spain might sell some parts of the archipelago to Germany or to Japan to save face. If Aguinaldo's army was strong enough, there might be a united Philippines but a protectorate by the United States perhaps.

Otl Mindanao, Guam, Palau, Marianas are all sellable and the philippines or the Luzon government won't even bother to defend those places due to distance and lack of necessity.

With regards to split up, I believe this would be more of a civil war/assassination/political humiliation between the top leaders rather than split between republics. A separate visayas or any of its islands was too weak, too underpopulated at this time to stand on its own vs even a 2nd or 3rd rate foreign power like Spain.

You can say an ATL version of the power struggle between Luna and Aguinaldo.
 
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