Most Likely Fourth Nation of North America

Probably Newfoundland or Quebec. Newfoundland gave up its sovereignty willingly and relatively recently compared to the other territories, so it might be a bit easier to have it last until today. Cultural disparities with Quebec could make that a definite possibility for an independent nation. There's no way the CSA is going to successfully break away without a pretty major POD; Texas and California were pretty much destined to join America given the power disparity between the US and Mexico, and cultural ties. Rio Grande is unlikely; it was only a minor rebellion, and if the rebellion did succeed, it would probably end up absorbed as part of American Manifest Destiny. Yucatan is a possibility; it rejoined Mexico voluntarily. However, I think it was a bit before its time for a pure Native American country out of a formerly European nation. It's pretty likely Mexico eventually would've managed to reconquer it or get someone to help it (there was a lot of interest from the US to go down and help the Mexicans). Don't really know much about the Metis.
Newfoundland, certainly.

Newfoundland joined Canada willingly? well sort of. They were their own dominion until they colapsed in the Depression and Britain took them back. After WWII, the Brits basically kicked them out and they had a handful of options, none terribly palatable, but joining Canada won out as being least bad.

The anti campaign had songs like "Our face turns to Britain/our back to the Gulf/Come near at your peril/Canadian Wolf"

So, up until 1947 OTL there was another nation, and modifying the depression could easily keep it that way.


Backing up, BC only joined Canada because of a promise of good land connexion - what eventually became the CPR. I could see BC being its own country. Especially if the Brits kept more of Oregon Territory.

Backing up even further, Confederation started as a plan to unite the Maritime provinces, until Canada (then Upper & Lower, ie. Ontario and Quebec) crashed the party. So *Canada, *BC and *Atlantica and *Newfoundland are real possibilities. (I just made up the *Atlantica name, I have NO idea what such a union would call itself.)
 
Newfoundland, certainly.

Newfoundland joined Canada willingly? well sort of. They were their own dominion until they colapsed in the Depression and Britain took them back. After WWII, the Brits basically kicked them out and they had a handful of options, none terribly palatable, but joining Canada won out as being least bad.

The anti campaign had songs like "Our face turns to Britain/our back to the Gulf/Come near at your peril/Canadian Wolf"

So, up until 1947 OTL there was another nation, and modifying the depression could easily keep it that way.

Agreed, New Foundland is the most likely modern option.

Backing up, BC only joined Canada because of a promise of good land connexion - what eventually became the CPR. I could see BC being its own country. Especially if the Brits kept more of Oregon Territory.

Backing up even further, Confederation started as a plan to unite the Maritime provinces, until Canada (then Upper & Lower, ie. Ontario and Quebec) crashed the party. So *Canada, *BC and *Atlantica and *Newfoundland are real possibilities. (I just made up the *Atlantica name, I have NO idea what such a union would call itself.)

Actualy, an independent BC is much less likely than most people think, even if you add much of Oregon to it. The major reason being that it bankrupted itself, and its only viable trading partners both had their eyes on the region. Since Britain would never allow the West Coast (that was officialy theirs) to fall into American hands, it fell to Canada.

Canada itself played a large role in getting the BC annexed since it actualy had alot of influence in the matter. The last governor to be sent out the west coast by Britain was a pro annexation one.

I don't do the reasons justice, but realistically, OTL Canada would probably fall into two nations at the most probable (Maritimes-Newfoundland and Canada) to four at the most screwed up (Maritimes, Newfoundland, Quebec, and Canada).
 
According to William Freeling in Road to Disunion, Texas came very close to becoming a British protectorate. A faction within the British government was attempting to broker a deal where Texas would pass a gradual, compensated abolition of slavery, financed by sale of some unsettled lands to British investors, and in exchange Britain would guarantee Texas's sovereignty and territorial integrity at the Rio Grande border. The deal was viable in both Texas and Britian, but haggling and arranging the details dragged on for years. In the meantime, Tyler was able to use the threat of British involvement in Texas to narrowly get an annexation bill through Congress, which Texas signed onto because the US offer was better for them than the UK offer.

Flip one vote in the Senate, or have opponents of annexation win the argument that annexation requires a treaty (2/3 majority to ratify), and the US doesn't annex Texas for several more years at least, giving Britain time to finalize their deal with Texas.
 
Out of all the common examples bandied about, which is the most likely fourth nation to have been created in North America and to exist into the modern day? New England? Quebec? Texas? California? Republic of the Rio Grande? Republic of Yucatán? The CSA? A Métis nation? Newfoundland? What other historical possibilities are there? Come on people work with me here.

This probably deserves a poll but nah.

I'll suggest a list in most likely to probably likely:

New England, Texas, the Confederacy and California.

The mention of Alaska is a deadend since the Russian colony was dependent upon importing food stuffs from warm climes, hence the presence of Russians in Northern California.
 
I give you the surprisingly factual Republic of Vermont!

The fourteenth American state functioned more or less as a sovereign nation for fourteen years. The rea; dispute was whether they would join the USA or return to the British Empire.

If you could keep relations between Vermont and the two states that claimed it hostile, and Canada not annex them for not wanting to provoke a war fotr little gain, they might develop as a nation accidentally.

Checked and there is today a marginal mostly leftist independence movement in the state.
 
It's from the bizarre belief that North America consists of just Canada, the US, and America. Central America and the Caribbean are considered their own entities. I don't know if there's any real validity to the belief or not, but it exists.

Geographically...Central America and the Caribbean are regions of the continent of Nth America... but they are a geo-political unit of their own.

I would say, Texas, UPCA, Yucatan, Newfoundland or Quebec
 
Geographically...Central America and the Caribbean are regions of the continent of Nth America... but they are a geo-political unit of their own.

Exactly. Conspiracy theorists fear a North American Union where the U.S. is hooked to Mexican poverty/non-whiteness and Canadian socialism/liberalism, not to the Caribbean or Central American states.
 
I give you the surprisingly factual Republic of Vermont!

The fourteenth American state functioned more or less as a sovereign nation for fourteen years. The rea; dispute was whether they would join the USA or return to the British Empire.

If you could keep relations between Vermont and the two states that claimed it hostile, and Canada not annex them for not wanting to provoke a war fotr little gain, they might develop as a nation accidentally.

Checked and there is today a marginal mostly leftist independence movement in the state.

I dunno. Vermont doesn't have a coast line and would be too poor on its own to really last for 250 years, sandwiched between the US (which has claims on it) and Canada. It would be really cool to see an independent Republic of Vermont, though. An American version of the Netherlands? :)

Geographically...Central America and the Caribbean are regions of the continent of Nth America... but they are a geo-political unit of their own.

Yeah, but that's still no real reason to refer to the area north of them as just "North America." Anglo-America might be a bit better (chosen vs Latin America) but still wouldn't be perfect, given Mexico and primarily Anglo Caribbean Islands. Not sure of any other possible names.
 
Tecumseh

What about Tecumseh? What if he managed to pull together an Indian nation in the Midwest? Came close too.
 
Question - Was not Vermont once part of NY. They broke away.

They once talked about this in another thread. That Central America and the Caribbean are on the Caribbean tectonic plate and not the North American tectonic plate. Cuba is said to be on the North American tectonic plate. Except for maybe a small piece in SE Cuba . That even though Bermuda is including has North America that
Bermuda is not part of the Americas, but is an oceanic island which was formed on the fissure of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge over 100 million years ago.
So North America should end at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Seems certain geological information needs to be updated.
350px-Tectonic_plates_Caribbean.png



Did not know Newfoundland was once not part of Canada. Would not really think they would manage to prosper by themselves.

So to answer the OP - Quebec has a new nation makes sense. US might have ended up with Canadian Maritimes.

If we include Central America then how about these:

Yucatan could have been a republic but no one wanted to help them so they went back to Mexico. They asked European nations including the US for help against the Mayans in return they would allow themselves to be annexed. US had been in Mexico during the Mexican American war and was not interested in getting involved.

How about the former republic of Los Altos becoming whole again or surviving. Following is about when Los Altos was added to the United Provinces of Central American
In the 1830s an additional state was added, Los Altos, with its capital in Quetzaltenango, occupying parts of what is now the western highlands of Guatemala and part of Chiapas (now part of Mexico), but this state was reincorporated into Guatemala and Mexico respectively in 1840.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Altos,_Central_America

As for Chiapas it was controlled by the Spanish from Guatemala not Mexico City. Remember. the Chiapas you see today on maps was not the Chiapas in 1821. The Chiapas of 1821 was made up of todays Western Chiapas. Eastern Chiapas was later added.

Chiapas was conquered by Spain in the early 16th century, and became part of the Viceroyalty of New Spain, administered as part of the Captaincy General of Guatemala (what is now Central America), from Santiago de Guatemala.

In 1823, western Chiapas was annexed to Mexico. More of current day Chiapas was transferred after the disintegration of the Central American Federation in 1842. The remainder of the current state taken from Guatemala in the early 1880s by President Porfirio Díaz.
The Mexican forcibly took parts of Los Altos in 1842 and parts of Guatemala in 1880 thus creating Eastern Chiapas.

So in 1821 Chiapas declared there Independence and united with the other new independent provinces of Central America to the Empire of Mexico. When Mexico became a Republic after a short-time Central American provinces pulled out and formed there own United Provinces in 1823. Los Altos separated from Guatemala in 1838 and joined the United Central American Provinces.

Back to Chiapas. They had a vote. Found the results from September 12 1824.:
96,829 voted in Favor of uniting with Mexico. 60,400 voted in favor of uniting with Guatemala. And 15724 votes abstained. So what was Chiapas which today would only make up Western Chiapas united with Mexico.

Some Guatemalans today still say Mexico stole Chiapas from them.
 
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Question - Was not Vermont once part of NY. They broke away.

Yeah. Vermont was part of NY (and sort of NH) in the pre-ARW era. When it broke away, the rest of NY more or less just didn't want to/couldn't expend the energy to force it back, and political wheeling didn't work. Vermont isn't a good chance for an extra North American nation. It referred to itself as the State of Vermont, had a Governor instead of a president or whatever, and generally shaped itself around the opportunity to become a state.

They once talked about this in another thread. That Central America and the Caribbean are on the Caribbean tectonic plate and not the North American tectonic plate. Cuba is said to be on the North American tectonic plate. Except for maybe a small piece in SE Cuba . That even though Bermuda is including has North America that
So North America should end at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Seems certain geological information needs to be updated.
Interesting. But if you go that way, parts of Japan, Russia, and a tiny portion of China would be considered North American. ;)


Did not know Newfoundland was once not part of Canada. Would not really think they would manage to prosper by themselves.
They almost certainly wouldn't have been able to. But we're not looking for prosperous nations, just independent ones. It might be kind of cool to see it start off as a sort of tax haven ("we have shitty climate, but if you base your corporation here, you'll make a lot more money!") and later transition to some sort of high-tech based industry. A Newfie Silicon Valley would be pretty cool. :D

So to answer the OP - Quebec has a new nation makes sense. US might have ended up with Canadian Maritimes.
Hmm. Certainly possible.
 
Any new land settled by Americans (meaning in this case settlers from the United States of America) is going to be eventually annexed by the United States. This was the case in Texas, where after the Constitution of 1836 was passed by the Mexican government, settlers came with the sole intent of making Texas one of the United States. California on the other hand was only independent for a week after 30 Americans rebelled, complementing the current war effort in the Mexican-American War. It would take quite a POD to make these two settled and yet not annexed by the USA, while still remaining in the same form as we know them.

As for most probable I would say the CSA, because all the mettling that needs to be done there would be to have them win a war. Certainly with a POD early enough there can be many more than 4 North American nations.
 

Baskilisk

Banned
Hmm...There a lot of interesting points here. Regardless, Quebec is the most likely candidate to fill this criteria. They came the closest to it legally in OTL...And it's probably the only one any of the three would be willing to let go without force.
 
As for most probable I would say the CSA, because all the mettling that needs to be done there would be to have them win a war. Certainly with a POD early enough there can be many more than 4 North American nations.

Blah. I never really saw the CSA as having that much of a shot at winning unless they were ungodly lucky.
 
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