Most Likely Fourth Nation of North America

Out of all the common examples bandied about, which is the most likely fourth nation to have been created in North America and to exist into the modern day? New England? Quebec? Texas? California? Republic of the Rio Grande? Republic of Yucatán? The CSA? A Métis nation? Newfoundland? What other historical possibilities are there? Come on people work with me here.

This probably deserves a poll but nah.
 
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Sachyriel

Banned
Metis nation. Especially if it turns out to be protected by a bunch of ex-military types who go to assist their new nation.
 
Probably Newfoundland or Quebec. Newfoundland gave up its sovereignty willingly and relatively recently compared to the other territories, so it might be a bit easier to have it last until today. Cultural disparities with Quebec could make that a definite possibility for an independent nation. There's no way the CSA is going to successfully break away without a pretty major POD; Texas and California were pretty much destined to join America given the power disparity between the US and Mexico, and cultural ties. Rio Grande is unlikely; it was only a minor rebellion, and if the rebellion did succeed, it would probably end up absorbed as part of American Manifest Destiny. Yucatan is a possibility; it rejoined Mexico voluntarily. However, I think it was a bit before its time for a pure Native American country out of a formerly European nation. It's pretty likely Mexico eventually would've managed to reconquer it or get someone to help it (there was a lot of interest from the US to go down and help the Mexicans). Don't really know much about the Metis.
 
Metis nation. Especially if it turns out to be protected by a bunch of ex-military types who go to assist their new nation.

I find that rather unlikely. The North West Rebellion, nor the Red River one for that matter, had any chance of success.

California, or Texas I'd find more likely.

Actualy, I'm going to go with Newfoundland for the winner.
 
I find that rather unlikely. The North West Rebellion, nor the Red River one for that matter, had any chance of success.

California, or Texas I'd find more likely.

Actualy, I'm going to go with Newfoundland for the winner.

Dunno about California, but you'd have to have a much different US to not annex Texas. One of the big reasons Texas broke away from Mexico was because it wanted to be annexed by the US. The second you get an expansionist president, Texas is going to be annexed.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Metis nation. Especially if it turns out to be protected by a bunch of ex-military types who go to assist their new nation.

I've got milk on my keyboard that I shot out my nose. I expect you to buy me a new keyboard. ;)


I'd say Chiapas. I remember talking to some folks from Mexico who I worked with at a shop a few years ago, and I knew there were folks down there who wanted to leave Mexico, but I didn't realize how bad some of the Mexicans wanted them gone.
 
Does Russian Alaska have a chance?
If the US doesn't buy it from Russia, say not enough money, not intrested, etc, etc, would it last?

I know it seem cliche, but it seems likely.
 
I'd say Chiapas. I remember talking to some folks from Mexico who I worked with at a shop a few years ago, and I knew there were folks down there who wanted to leave Mexico, but I didn't realize how bad some of the Mexicans wanted them gone.

This looks surprisingly reasonable. It sounds to me like Chiapas is just a shithole that Mexico constantly politically marginalizes. You think we could see a sort of international support for the Zapatista Conflict? Considering how it's an independence movement that refuses to use weapons, I can see it becoming a sort of pet cause of Western left-wing groups.

Does Russian Alaska have a chance?
If the US doesn't buy it from Russia, say not enough money, not intrested, etc, etc, would it last?

I know it seem cliche, but it seems likely.

I don't think so. I don't see a successful Alaskan independence movement, and there's not a real reason for Russia to just get rid of it.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Does Russian Alaska have a chance?
If the US doesn't buy it from Russia, say not enough money, not intrested, etc, etc, would it last?

I know it seem cliche, but it seems likely.

I made a timeline (which I probably won't put up because I prefer putting stories up to TLs) that had Alaska not being sold to the US.

After awhile of mulling it over, I finally had the Japanese capturing the Western Aleutians in 1905, then the Kerensky Government selling Alaska to the US in 1917 for cash. This didn't mean it wasn't full of Reds, which meant the US basically made a deal with the Canadians to let them occupy and claim the panhandle in exchange for the ability to stage through the Yukon and invade from the Canadian side as well as from the ocean.


I personally think that Russia would've sold it. Even if it wasn't completely under it's control.
 
Russian Alaska seems good (probably would not have sold it after the gold was discovered, at least I wouldn't), Newfoundland most probable.

No Oregon Country? I think it arising is more probable than California, due to if US and UK failed to reach the Oregon Treaty (easy, kill off Rt Hon Sir Richard Pakenham, accidents happen) over it, the provisional government established could develop further.

An independent Oregon could receive support from the UK who would not wish to see the entire region go to the US (better to have a friend their than a competitor if you cannot get it yourself). It wouldn't be conquered either in this case by either the US or UK because neither side actually wanted another war.

Also what are we considering North America? Technically it should/could include Greenland, Central America, the Caribbean, and perhaps even Bermuda. Also, who can forget St. Pierre and Miquelon?. This thread is really more "How can we chop up Mexico, Canada or (best of all, because honestly, everybody loves to see it balkanized) the US?"
 
I'd say a french based one. Either french Canada or Louisiana. It only requires more immigration from France to the new world ( or french huguenot not be as welcomed in Protestant Europe as OTL )
 
I'd say a french based one. Either french Canada or Louisiana. It only requires more immigration from France to the new world ( or french huguenot not be as welcomed in Protestant Europe as OTL )

Yeah. An independent Quebec would definitely be possible.
 

Krall

Banned
There are more than four nations in North America! There's the USA, Canada, Mexico, Panama, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Haiti, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, St. Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenardines, St Lucia, the Bahamas, Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, and Trinidad and Tobago! And that's not counting dependencies!
 
There are more than four nations in North America! There's the USA, Canada, Mexico, Panama, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Haiti, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, St. Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenardines, St Lucia, the Bahamas, Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, and Trinidad and Tobago! And that's not counting dependencies!

It's from the bizarre belief that North America consists of just Canada, the US, and America. Central America and the Caribbean are considered their own entities. I don't know if there's any real validity to the belief or not, but it exists.
 
Also what are we considering North America? Technically it should/could include Greenland, Central America, the Caribbean, and perhaps even Bermuda. Also, who can forget St. Pierre and Miquelon?. This thread is really more "How can we chop up Mexico, Canada or (best of all, because honestly, everybody loves to see it balkanized) the US?"

Anything on the mainland is up for consideration, I don't really care about the Caribbean as much though.
 
I'd like to say the Confederacy but I think New England would have a better chance. If they left the Union in the War of 1812 and became a British Protectorate then there is very little chance that the United States could ever get them back.
 
Obviously "most likely" depends on the time period - for example prior to losing Acadia, one could look at a French N American nation eventually evolving to independence as being the most likely there. During the ARW, if the British had held onto the Carolinas then a British dominion in the South could have the "most likely" tag to evolve eventually into a nation. Or the Spanish in Florida, or Louisiana, etc. Then one is into the 19th century, with all the possibilities for Texas, or California, or for breakaway republics such as Sonora or Rio Grande. Or you can look at Burr-ite schemes for Louisiana, or New England seccession. With prospects into the 20th century for a surviving Russian presence in Alaska, or for the dominion of Newfoundland to survive separate from Canada, or for Quebec to seccede

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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What if Louisiana was never purchased?
Could it become independent?

:)

Spanish or French ?

If the US didn't buy it, would Britain conquer it from the French, or would Spain seek to revoke San Ildefonso, or would it eventually become a battleground for adventurers, maybe allow Burr and co's schemes to play out in a grand way ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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