Most likely fate of CSA

What do you think the CSA would most likely had become had it won the civil war?

  • Superpower

    Votes: 4 3.7%
  • Greatpower

    Votes: 9 8.3%
  • Regional power (Carrebean and surronding area)

    Votes: 44 40.4%
  • Minor nation

    Votes: 7 6.4%
  • 3rd world country

    Votes: 11 10.1%
  • British puppet

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Breaks up into smaller nations

    Votes: 13 11.9%
  • Slowly readmited back into the US

    Votes: 12 11.0%
  • Conqured by the US after second war

    Votes: 9 8.3%

  • Total voters
    109
IMO, it will be a regional power. Sometime in between 1890 and 1914 (or whenever a great war comes along, I feel with a POD in 1861 its still too close to avoid a big war in the 1910-20 region) or perhaps even durring a great war, the CSA will fight a war with Spain. I'm thinking both Cuba and Puerto Rico will become independent, rather then CSA states.

Now, assuming this is an independent event, I can see this as being enough to keep the CSA out of European affiars. Perhaps it will invest more in Central America and Northern South America, if it hadn't been doing so already. The USA's reaction to this is an entirely different matter.
 
Well, since this is after 1900, I assume it means that the CSA has survived united and independent until then. In that case, I think they'd be a regoinal power, since they wouldn't have the power to be anything but.
 
if the CSA can survive WW1 and WW2 without severe territorial losses (they have to keep texas), i can see CSA become a regional power, possibly a great but that is a stretch.

though depending on the POD, breaking up and reuniting with US seem more likely earlier on. but since its after 1900. I'll assume the majority, if not all the CSA is in tacked.
 
Options 7 and 8 go together.
Option 7 assumes that the states part of the CSA would at different intervals decide that rejoining the US is better then being a part of the CS.

8 is the US just outright annexing whatever they feel like. So basically same thing but vastly different process.
 

Markus

Banned
A CSA would be a small power at best and the reason is industry and immigartion.

Before the war 90% of immigrants went to free states resulting in them developing much more industry than any slave state. This trend will not change after the USA recognizes CSA independance. So even if the USA does not wage a cold or hot war against the CSA -I consider the USA not waging a cold war against the CSA highly unlikely- the CSA will hardly be able to expand westward. Furthermore US support for Mexico and Cuba is IMO guaranted if the CSA makes a move south.
 
The CSA would likely be a regional power, but not as powerful as it would like. But it would be more industrial than Markus believes it will, IMO due to French and British interest. I think it would end up as the South Africa of North America (assuming it's on the victorious side of both WW's)

IMO, there's no reason the CSA and the USA cannot be allies in WW2. It just depends on Lady Luck's effect on internal politics in both countries (Huey Long and FDR become friends and presidents??):D
 
A CSA would be a small power at best and the reason is industry and immigartion.

Before the war 90% of immigrants went to free states resulting in them developing much more industry than any slave state. This trend will not change after the USA recognizes CSA independance.

The South certainly didn't have the population or industry that the North had, but it wasn't a small power. If it were its own country it would've had the fourth largest economy in the world going into the war. You're right that most immigrants settled in the North because of industry, but once the South begins to further industrialize (which will begin slowly, but immediately) all that changes. Also, what happens when the slaves are freed? Do they migrate North and stay in the South? My guess is the North won't want them ITTL. So, even if immigration is low in the South they'd likely make up for it with freedmen, don't ya think?

So even if the USA does not wage a cold or hot war against the CSA -I consider the USA not waging a cold war against the CSA highly unlikely- the CSA will hardly be able to expand westward. Furthermore US support for Mexico and Cuba is IMO guaranted if the CSA makes a move south.
Why are you so sure about this? Did the U.S. get very involved in Canada? What are you basing this on?

I don't think the CSA is going to get heavily involved in imperialism, but I certainly think it would be a regional power and have a serious voice on the world stage going forward. JMO.
 
Hyperpower. Erm, because... they happen to be first to get nukes while everyone else is fighting some world war and they've declared neutrality. But when some random country attacks them, they join the opposing side, and they have the best air force because of Kitty Hawk being in the CSA, and they drop a dozen nukes on the USA which is conveniently on the opposing side, Europe eats itself alive on schedule, the USSR is butterflied away, and Japan is on the CSA's side, and they win. Basically I just wanted to give people something to rip apart, as that's always fun.
 

Markus

Banned
@Durindal:

The CSA freeing the slaves? To quote a southern newspaper form 1861 they fought the war for "The freedom to keep slaves!”

Immigration pattern won’t change. Free workers don´t want to and don´t need to compete with slaves. Unless slavery is abolished but like I said that is near impossible in the short run. And in the long run the USA has developed so much faster in the time between 1870 and 1900 that the CSA could never even dream of catching up.

Canada was a colony of the No.1 superpower – England. Still the USA tried to conquer it in 1815 or so. Compared to England (or the USA) a CSA will be an industrial dwarf and apparently the citizens of the North were really, really pissed at the way the South left the union.

Regarding CSA imperialism, the south had tried to gain control of Central America in the pre-war decades for the purpose of expanding slavery. The North fought them tooth and nails, so apart form a few raids and plan they got nowhere. Once they have left the Union they can and will resume these efforts.
 
Why are you so sure about this? Did the U.S. get very involved in Canada? What are you basing this on?

I don't think the CSA is going to get heavily involved in imperialism, but I certainly think it would be a regional power and have a serious voice on the world stage going forward. JMO.
Canada wasn't a country that got its independance by defeating us in a war, its just a remnant of British power in NA. the CSA on the other hand, embarrassed the US by gaining its independence and taking a good portion of the US with it. and that's not going to be forgotten very quickly which means the US does whatever it can to make the CSA's life(at least in the early years) a living hell.

Personally, judging on the internal politics of the CSA during the war I'm going to guess that the CSA would eventually fall apart and be gradually reabsorbed into the US. However, the constant threat of the US could force the many factions of the CSA to put aside their differences and maybe push them towards status as a regional power. Could go either way.
 
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