So I've heard that OTL German successes were based on incredible German luck during the first few years of WWII. If that is the case, what is the more plausible/likely extent of German territorial gains in WWII with a POD of Sept 1 1939?
So I've heard that OTL German successes were based on incredible German luck during the first few years of WWII. If that is the case, what is the more plausible/likely extent of German territorial gains in WWII with a POD of Sept 1 1939?
A bit more than what they conquered IOTL. They could maybe take a bit more of the Soviet Union (Leningrad, Stalingrad, etc.) and some more neutral countries.
Then I guess OTL's borders, seeing as how they actually got that.I said most likely, not the maximum and luckiest extent (which would in fact be the most unlikely w/o being ASB) which you seem to be taking it as.
Then I guess OTL's borders, seeing as how they actually got that.
The problem is that this is a very general question. It really depends on what the POD is. Could you be more specific?
And what happens on September 1st 1939 that is different than what happened IOTL? Because it could be anything from Germany not invading Poland to Hitler having a stroke and being replaced by someone else.reread the op. The POD is sept 1 1939
And what happens on September 1st 1939 that is different than what happened IOTL? Because it could be anything from Germany not invading Poland to Hitler having a stroke and being replaced by someone else.
But it is sometimes claimed that even the Polish war could be lost, or not won, by the Germans. If Russia does not attack, then the Poles remain for some time longer, while German equipment was wearing out, and the weather was changing for the worse (was it?) and if France and Britain had made some threatening moves, there is even less of German force available to finish off this war. So, if the Poles are around somewhere into 1940, the western campaigns will be postponed, and might get even worse than above for Germany.Poland's going to go, no helping that except with a pre-war POD.
But it is sometimes claimed that even the Polish war could be lost, or not won, by the Germans. If Russia does not attack, then the Poles remain for some time longer, while German equipment was wearing out, and the weather was changing for the worse (was it?) and if France and Britain had made some threatening moves, there is even less of German force available to finish off this war. So, if the Poles are around somewhere into 1940, the western campaigns will be postponed, and might get even worse than above for Germany.
Replaced by who?Hitler surrounds himself with the worst human garbage possible.And what happens on September 1st 1939 that is different than what happened IOTL? Because it could be anything from Germany not invading Poland to Hitler having a stroke and being replaced by someone else.
If the Germans conquer Leningrad they will have a lot of reduced losses due to removing one front, having a massively important means of supply, shutting down the Baltic to Soviet shipping (Soviet submarines were an issue the entire war), capture a lot of Soviet shipping to use to bring in supplies, get a lot of scrap metal from Soviet naval forces, eliminate well over 100k Soviet troops from their OOB, get a lot of extra forced labor, capture some industry to export to Germany, and get a lot of high quality airbases. Leningrad falling would free up large numbers of Axis troops to cut off Murmansk and capture it, cutting of LL supply, which was 25% of all LL, much more early on, and free up over 100k German troops for other fronts.Does this include Axis victory scenarios? Or is this scenario asking for the Allies to win WW2? With Allied victory, a bit more of France, Leningrad, Stalingrad, the Caucasus and some Russian territory may seem feasible, if the Soviets recover sufficiently enough. [I hope that if the Germans enter Leningrad, the Soviets get an extra corps of German troops as casualties the next winter or spring.]
OTL was something of a best case for Germany so it would probably be more helpful to look at the worst case as well so we could then look at the happy mediums.
Poland's going to go, no helping that except with a pre-war POD. Ditto Denmark Luxembourg. It's when you get to stuff like Norway, the Low Countries, France, and the Soviet Union that you run into states with the power and/or geography to royally screw-up Germany's plans. Absolute worst case for Germany compared to IOTL from a territorial stand point: they take Poland, Denmark, much of Belgium and the Netherlands but are repelled from Norway and a piece of northeastern France before stalling and then being driven back over the next year or two.